What is nogaps up to????

[caneman]

It just shows the HIGH uncertainty of steering currents that far out. Mexico to Tampa needs to pay attention.

well said. Can even understand how people are discounting West coast of Florida on the other thread.

a. All models have flip flopped.
b. A system doesn't have to move NE to affect us, we could have one shoot due North up the coast
c. Just about all the rain we've had this year has been from a ULL to the West of us to the east of us and sometimes one on each side at the same time/
I'm banking that one will some way have a say in the final destination.
d. 5 days out just isn't accurate.
e. oh and forgot to add that if it takes its sweet time another front could drop down

[ronjon]

Check out the 00Z NAM. Don't pay any attention to the double barrel lows that form into one near the NE Yuc. Look to the NW over north TX at the end of the run - I see a distinct trough dipping down. Maybe this is the feature that NOGAPs is keying on that will weaken the ridge and move the storm N-NE.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[bucman1]

I can't pull up that graphic but the reasoning makes perfect sense-once again a timing issue.

[caneman]

bad link

[ronjon]

bad link

For some reason that site has been going down periodically over the last few days - don't know if its heavy traffic or what. I checked the link - I can't get to the main model page myself now.

[dwg71]

Looking at current models on this chart - i see 3 going to central/eastern gulf, 5 heading west to Southern TX and Mexico, and 1 going to the TX/LA border (GFDL). I still think this will find the weakness and go north to central gulf OR ride ridge to southern TX north MEX.

[caneman]

k. thanks

[WeatherEmperor]

can somebody answer this for me. I thought that the NOGAPS is run only once every 12 hours meaning at 00Z and 12Z. So why does that graphic show an 18Z NOGAPS run??

<RICKY>

[EDR1222]

IMHO, as Ernesto begins to gain a little more latitude, the GFS and GFDL will be the ones to watch. The UKMET, GFDL, GFS and NOGAPS all have their good and bad moments and even sometimes you scratch your head wondering when you look at the plots, but it seems from what I have seen, as the storms start to get to 15-20 N or a little higher, these two are the most reliable ( for the most part )

[seaswing]

Hmm.. Perhaps underestimating the ridges strength, or perhaps thinking of a weakening ridge, or an approaching trough/front we don't know about..

Local met mentioned a cold front dipping down. Said timing was an issue for Florida....

[bucman1]

Did he say when that cold front might be arriving?

[Jim Cantore]

hmm, intresting track out of the NOGAPS.

And the LBAR wont give me anything for "Best of LBAR 2006"... It knows!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm.. Perhaps underestimating the ridges strength, or perhaps thinking of a weakening ridge, or an approaching trough/front we don't know about..

Local met mentioned a cold front dipping down. Said timing was an issue for Florida....

I don't believe the CF scenario. History says that so far this August that CF that have tried to make it to the Gulf have failed. I bet this one will be the same. It will probably stall well north of the Gulf coast.

BTW: I have heard nothing of this CF from local mets.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at current models on this chart - i see 3 going to central/eastern gulf, 5 heading west to Southern TX and Mexico, and 1 going to the TX/LA border (GFDL). I still think this will find the weakness and go north to central gulf OR ride ridge to southern TX north MEX.

The NHC track seems to be on the right side of the models.

[bucman1]

you may be correct but we are approaching the end of August and cold fronts do start heading south.

[ronjon]

Taking a look at the 500 mb vort plots for both the GFS and NAM - both have an upper level low and trough migrating from the Rocky Mtns toward the lower Ohio Valley in the next 4-5 days - this apparently will weaken and push the upper level ridge eastward creating a weakness in the central gulf. How strong this feature is, how far south it migrates, and of course timing will determine the path of Ernie in the GOM.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etaus500v2.html

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avn18500v.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

you may be correct but we are approaching the end of August and cold fronts do start heading south.

well if it does play out then I will gladly take some drier, cooler weather in place of a hurricane.

[ronjon]

Check out the 00Z NAM. Don't pay any attention to the double barrel lows that form into one near the NE Yuc. Look to the NW over north TX at the end of the run - I see a distinct trough dipping down. Maybe this is the feature that NOGAPs is keying on that will weaken the ridge and move the storm N-NE.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Link working now.

[bucman1]

wish we could have some of that cooler weather here in Tampa.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wish we could have some of that cooler weather here in Tampa.

I wish we could in Houston too, that is why the front would be nice! Based on the rate this pattern is going though (and has been for the last month), I am not counting on this front actually reaching us.