Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

[bucman1]

Please do I would love to see what your thinking!

[EDR1222]

As we all know, anything in the tropics is possible, but I think given the current guidance, this is looking more like a North Central Gulf or points west of that area. If you recall, as Charley was coming up from that area, it took an unseasonably strong cold front to pull it Northeast across Florida. Not saying that exact scenario would have to happen for the west coast of Florida to be affected, but it doesn't look like there is anything there, as of now, to cause it to make a sharp North turn or Northeast turn down the road.

[Jim Cantore]

Nothing is impossible

[Normandy]

No.. I'm not trying to wishcast this storm my way people.. Just curious.. I'm actually tempted to also give a forecast, but I'm afraid I'll get slammed..

U should get slammed if you post that forecast, because it would have no meteorlogical reasoning behind it....Troughs turn hurricanes NE into W Fl, there are none now.


Katrina has a better shot of NOT being retired then a SW Florida hit verifying.

[cinlfla]

No.. I'm not trying to wishcast this storm my way people.. Just curious.. I'm actually tempted to also give a forecast, but I'm afraid I'll get slammed..

U should get slammed if you post that forecast, because it would have no meteorlogical reasoning behind it....Troughs turn hurricanes NE into W Fl, there are none now.


Katrina has a better shot of NOT being retired then a SW Florida hit verifying.

[Normandy]

Allow me to be blunt...coming from a Texan and Floridian, what your saying isn't to viable at this point. Really, the West Coast of Florida may not be the landfall point (and i'd have to say 99% it won't be), but it's pretty obvious that this side of the state could see some really nasty weather if this storm gains strength and tracks within even 100 miles of the coast, which it appears as it will.

Naples got slammed with Wilma last year, and SW Florida got slammed with Charley two years before it. Just because we're not in for the direct landfall, doesn't mean we won't see stormy conditions.

The bottom line is there is no way to know what will happen, even though I personally believe this storm will end up somewhere between (most likely) Pensacola and Lake Charles, you can't rule out Key West being skimmed by the storm, the Southwest Tip of Florida being skimmed, it making landfall in Cancun and Cozumel and then on to Brownsville, or it ending up smack dab in New Orleans. You simply can't rule out Florida being affected by this either directly or indirectly.
k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Well IMO your solution isnt really likely either....no professional forecast track takes this ANYWHERE near Florida.

Explain to me synoptically how Ernesto could hit FL.

[bucman1]

Although I do not think this will occur, A strong cold front or weakening

ridge presently over the southeast could retreat allowing more of a Panhandle or Big Bend solution.

You asked ,thats my opinion.

[Scott_inVA]

There is no...repeat...NO way of knowing at this time if a WFL landfall is possible. It first needs to survive Saturday and how the Ridge may set up next week. Right now, Florida is unlikely, but for now it is all speculation.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Scott_inVA]

That is a good point, but still, the entire Gulf Coast needs to be watching this storm.

Absolutely, Kevin. In the blog at my site I tonight stressed if this survives the weekend, there is a reasonable expectation of hurricane in the GOM next week...the possibility of a major TC can not be ruled out at this time.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Sanibel]

Always possible. See "Hurricane Donna" 1960. That track took Donna in a hook from the Florida Straits right up the west coast and inland near Charlotte Harbor.

Sent 16 feet of surge across Ft Myers Beach.

[beachbum_al]

I think anyone right now is fair game. It is wait and see game and just make sure we are prepare if the unthinkable happens.

[caneman]

No.. I'm not trying to wishcast this storm my way people.. Just curious.. I'm actually tempted to also give a forecast, but I'm afraid I'll get slammed..

U should get slammed if you post that forecast, because it would have no meteorlogical reasoning behind it....Troughs turn hurricanes NE into W Fl, there are none now.


Katrina has a better shot of NOT being retired then a SW Florida hit verifying.

I really can't beleve you made this post. Look at model runs now which show Panhandle. see my post in thread on what is Nogaps up to.

[Nimbus]

The GFDL model is starting to curl the track east late in the forecast period. The big danger will be the slower forward motion due to a weakening ridge later in the forecast.

Slower moving storms are much harder to predict a track for. The slower the system moves, the more likely the west coast of Florida gets hit. This is because it gives more time for recurve and troughs to steer the storm east.

Florida will be on the strong side of the storm so an Ivan or Charley track would be devastating.

[caneman]

The GFDL model is starting to curl the track east late in the forecast period. The big danger will be the slower forward motion due to a weakening ridge later in the forecast.

Slower moving storms are much harder to predict a track for. The slower the system moves, the more likely the west coast of Florida gets hit. This is because it gives more time for recurve and troughs to steer the storm east.

Florida will be on the strong side of the storm so an Ivan or Charley track would be devastating.

yes this is concerning. as their is a trough forecast to move down. seems like we've had quite a few just North of the area alll Summer. Our last major hit was a NE moving storm from the BOC as a cAt. 3 so anyone that thinks a storm running North near our coast that then shoots NE can't be a major is sadly mistaken.

[TampaFl]

Even JB in a brief morning post is basically saying, is that there is plenty of uncertainty once Ernesto gets into the GOM. The models are all over the GOM as Ernesto will have to interact with the developing trough pattern that is forecast the mid part of next week into the Miss. Valley area. The question on his mind is will the models over estimate the trough the mid part of next week , as the trough is forecast for later next week in the Miss. Valley area. His thinking is that the ridge will hold north of Ernesto & allow it to continue moving nw through Thursday, as he thinks it will be near 25N 90W by then (his prediction from last night). He feels that IF, and JB is not forecasting this, if Ernesto were to track more to the North Central Gulf states, that it would most likley be moving east of north. Once again, JB did not say this will happen.


IMHO, it is way to early to tell where Ernesto will go once in the GOM. All interest should review their plans now while there is plenty of time. Ernesto does appear like he will be around for awhile and it is going to be a long week ahead.


Robert

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope this trough doesn't swoop down and send Ernesto NEward or else the west coast of FL will be in trouble.

[Emmett_Brown]

The latest models are an eye opener, with the GFDL, AVN and NOGAPS suggesting a recurve toward the panhandle. This will probably shift back west of course, since the end of model runs tend to flip around this far out.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

My concern is that Ernesto is a deep system... although not strong yet, he has a large amount of deap convection. It would seem to me that the ULL to his W may start to steer him a little more NW in the short term as the GFDL is suggesting, which would put him closer to FL when steering currents weaken.

[seaswing]

I heard last night on the local news that a cold front is forecasted to dip down. What influence would this have on Ernesto moving more north? does the latest track guidance have something to do with this cold front?

[Windtalker1]

I heard last night on the local news that a cold front is forecasted to dip down. What influence would this have on Ernesto moving more north? does the latest track guidance have something to do with this cold front?

I think its a combo of both. Since they are saying Ernie can be a strong cat 3 entering the gulf, he will tend to be pulled more poleward....this and the approaching cold front can very well push him into the west coast of florida......................just my opinion. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

The latest models are an eye opener, with the GFDL, AVN and NOGAPS suggesting a recurve toward the panhandle. This will probably shift back west of course, since the end of model runs tend to flip around this far out.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

My concern is that Ernesto is a deep system... although not strong yet, he has a large amount of deap convection. It would seem to me that the ULL to his W may start to steer him a little more NW in the short term as the GFDL is suggesting, which would put him closer to FL when steering currents weaken.

aparently, they do forecast a weakness in the ridge! if the ridge weakens more, it will hit the west coast.