Next Wave to Exit the Coast of Africa

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curtadams
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#21 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:32 pm

It's impressive but all the globals have it fizzle.
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#22 Postby btangy » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:50 pm

I would still definitely watch this one as it treks across the Atlantic. It has all the ingredients for genesis except a healthy amount of convection. The late bloomers are the dangerous ones.
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#23 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:13 pm

btangy wrote:I would still definitely watch this one as it treks across the Atlantic. It has all the ingredients for genesis except a healthy amount of convection. The late bloomers are the dangerous ones.


Hopefully this will develop soon and go fishy.
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#24 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:16 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
btangy wrote:I would still definitely watch this one as it treks across the Atlantic. It has all the ingredients for genesis except a healthy amount of convection. The late bloomers are the dangerous ones.


Hopefully this will develop soon and go fishy.


Ala Debby.
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#25 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:31 am

btangy wrote:I would still definitely watch this one as it treks across the Atlantic. It has all the ingredients for genesis except a healthy amount of convection. The late bloomers are the dangerous ones.


Agreed. I see this one moving W over the ATL without development for the next 5 days. The Azores high is just strong enough to pump some stable air into it in the short term, keeping it from developing.

Watch out for later though (5 days)... and later is what counts, because it will be a lot closer by then.
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:07 am

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W
AND 20W IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUINEA TO GUINEA-BISSAU
TO SENEGAL OF AFRICA WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 17N16W. THE LOW CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 17W AND 18W.

8 AM Discussion.
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#27 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:33 am

Looking nice :P
Image
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#28 Postby bostonseminole » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:34 am

geez, TD5 looks good on that picture
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#29 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:41 am

Some 40 knot wind barbs according to QuikScat

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?554,236
Last edited by HurricaneMaster_PR on Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#30 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:44 am

I see Florence coming soon..
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#31 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:53 am

Note that even though the wave is at a relatively high latitude, the models seem to take it on a W-to-WSW journey over the next several days. Perhaps a feature to watch for in a week or so (especially if it doesn't spin up quickly).
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#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:56 am

Looks good and with the quickscats already showing a low level cirulation...This is worth watching. I don't know about fast forming because it will likely weaken some when it hits the Atlatnic.
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#33 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks good and with the quickscats already showing a low level cirulation...This is worth watching. I don't know about fast forming because it will likely weaken some when it hits the Atlatnic.


I don't think it will weaken when it hits the Atlantic. We are almost in September. It's prime time out there now. :eek:
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#34 Postby O Town » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:04 am

Strong SAL in front of it.
Image
Favorbitlity in the Atlantic right now. There is one little area right where it is exiting. lol.
Image
Click to enlarge.
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#35 Postby Anthonyl » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:22 am

Just a question, I'm having difficulty locating the actual axis.Is at or around below 13N or around the general area in the vicinity of the low.
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#36 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:39 am

wow, that is one nice looking wave!! It looks better than Debbie did.
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#37 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:40 am

sma10 wrote:Note that even though the wave is at a relatively high latitude, the models seem to take it on a W-to-WSW journey over the next several days. Perhaps a feature to watch for in a week or so (especially if it doesn't spin up quickly).


It will probably be an invest by the end of the weekend.
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#38 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:27 am

Taken from Jeff Master's blog this morning...


"New African wave
Several of the computer models are predicting that the tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical storm early next week
JEFF MASTERS"

Looks like a player for sure, and this one may not fish like Debbie did....
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#39 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:27 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:It will probably be an invest by the end of the weekend.


It's always hard to tell when any of these waves will become invests, but the end of the weekend sounds reasonable. I just don't see this developing as quickly as Debby did (so far to the east). It may end up being one of those "long" invests where we'll have to wait a little longer for actual development. Debby was further south down around 12N, while the low attached to this wave is apparently up around 17N, with another nice large area of convection further south. May take a little while for this system to sort everything out.
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#40 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 9:47 am

sma10 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:It will probably be an invest by the end of the weekend.


It's always hard to tell when any of these waves will become invests, but the end of the weekend sounds reasonable. I just don't see this developing as quickly as Debby did (so far to the east). It may end up being one of those "long" invests where we'll have to wait a little longer for actual development. Debby was further south down around 12N, while the low attached to this wave is apparently up around 17N, with another nice large area of convection further south. May take a little while for this system to sort everything out.


that's okay, I like long trackers :D
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