Is talkin tropics on tonight?

[cycloneye]

I can't hear what Aaron is talking about.

[JonathanBelles]

i cant either

[gatorcane]

I only hear the typing...

[JonathanBelles]

lol

[SouthFloridawx]

Are you saying you can't hear through the feed?

[JonathanBelles]

all i can hear is typing

[JonathanBelles]

who turned on the speakers?

and whats up with the fairy music in the backround?

[Jim Cantore]

Good show guys, I know what you mean about storms in the area, I'm surrounded by lightning

[wxman22]

There ending it early because of technical problems from thunderstorms in the area

[Jim Cantore]

There ending it early because of technical problems from thunderstorms in the area

It seems I am surrounded by them here, I know what they mean

[cycloneye]

who turned on the speakers?

and whats up with the fairy music in the backround?

They had some problems with bad weather where they are and that is why the interruptions.But anyway it was a good show that Charlie did and he said an important thing about the different basins.The Pacific is calming down while the Atlantic is heating up.

[Cyclenall]

When that one person was talking, I could hardly hear anything he was saying. I missed most of the show too.

who turned on the speakers?

and whats up with the fairy music in the backround?

X6 I have no clue myself.

[Jim Cantore]

Yea, Charlie and Aaron did good, too bad the weather didnt let them finish

[MWatkins]

To show you how out of it I am...I didn't even know 99L had been initiated until about 5 mins ago when I checked a sat image for the first time in 2 days. More on that in a second.

My thanks to Charlie and Aaron for putting the show together tonight. I got stuck with the moving truck...I had to use it tonight because the reservations I thought I had for tomorrow were no good...and I couldn't find another one...so what could I do? Had to get my stuff moved out...but the good news is...after tomorrow I'm done with the move! Thanks again to those guys for picking it up and I really appreciate their help...I will have to go back and listen to the archive tomorrow.

Now...on to 99L.

I am as impressed with system as any I have seen so far this season coming out of the deep tropics. Deep thunderstorm activity is present and has persisted for a while now. We got lucky and got a pretty good QUIKSCAT pass at 4PM this afternoon...showing 50knt contaminated barbs but not much in the way of a circulation yet:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

TMI and SSMI passes from today are not all that helpful even though we got a pretty good look with the TMI pass at around 0Z. Even so...the composite image from that pass does line up well with the position from the )Z model runs from NHC:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.61pc.jpg

In fact looking at the initialization of the 0Z models the apparent position of whatever center is there lines up pretty well with the NHC fix (scroll down):

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06072723

The Globals aren't seeing it yet but the 0Z NOGAPS model has a pretty significant 500MB weakness in the central Atlantic by 72 hours:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

However...the model sees this as a transient feature and heights build back in by day 5:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=108

GFS is not so optimistic about a height breakdown in the same 72 hour time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

It's a bit early to make a call on development...but IF we do see some...given the low lat of the system any breakdown in heights in the CAtl should be short lived...looks like this system is going to come west for a while.

Will need to watch the deep convection overnight and if it persists for the next day or so we could see a tropical depression this weekend.

I am also posting the bulk of this in the Analysis forum...it may get lost in this thread.

Thanks again for tuning in and sorry I didnt annoucne what was going on...it's been pretty hectic lately.

MW