Impressive system SW of Cape Verde Islands

#21 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:00 am

cycloneye wrote:If it persists,can we say 98L invest?

Absolutely - how much persistence do we need? 24 hours? By the end of the day today?

cheezyWXguy · #22 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:00 am

cycloneye wrote:If it persists,can we say 98L invest?

nope...not until it reaches 55W

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:02 am

NRL Panoramic View

:uarrow:

This image is two hours ahead of the infared image that is six hours intervals.Still looks very impressive.

#24 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:02 am

Here is the latest visible. What a beautiful site off the Africa coast. It is almost glowing :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

#25 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:12 am

gatorcane wrote:Here is the latest visible. What a beautiful site off the Africa coast. It is almost glowing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

It's radioactive! :eek:

#26 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:27 am

Looks nice and looks doomed. By the charts gatorcane and Ortt posted, it's got less than a day before it moves out into dry Saharan air over 24 degree water. Not a very conducive atmosphere. GFS has it as a closed low that evaporates immediately.

Hyperstorm · #27 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:59 am

curtadams wrote:Looks nice and looks doomed. By the charts gatorcane and Ortt posted, it's got less than a day before it moves out into dry Saharan air over 24 degree water. Not a very conducive atmosphere. GFS has it as a closed low that evaporates immediately.

Perfect analysis...

SSTs right off the coast of Africa (where the system is located) are well over 80*. Moisture is also plentiful in that immediate area. However, a couple hundred miles to its west lies an area of stable, dry air along with cooler SSTs (less than 80*). While it is a very well-defined system right now, I would wait until it reaches the less than favorable environment in 24 hours before I even remotely suggest development...

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:07 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
curtadams wrote:Looks nice and looks doomed. By the charts gatorcane and Ortt posted, it's got less than a day before it moves out into dry Saharan air over 24 degree water. Not a very conducive atmosphere. GFS has it as a closed low that evaporates immediately.

Perfect analysis...

SSTs right off the coast of Africa (where the system is located) are well over 80*. Moisture is also plentiful in that immediate area. However, a couple hundred miles to its west lies an area of stable, dry air along with cooler SSTs (less than 80*). While it is a very well-defined system right now, I would wait until it reaches the less than favorable environment in 24 hours before I even remotely suggest development...

I am with you about waiting another day before jumping on it for any development.For now it looks impressive.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 24W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W.

Discussion 2 PM about this wave.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:25 pm

18:00z Full Disk

:uarrow:

Still at this 18:00z full disk image it looks very good.For those who can't see the image,you have to register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:18:00z Full Disk

Still at this 18:00z full disk image it looks very good.For those who can't see the image,you have to register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html

So 98L may be on the way...?

Weatherfreak14 · #32 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:98L may be on the way...?

The way it looks right now that would be a definite.

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:57 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:98L may be on the way...?

The way it looks right now that would be a definite.

If it does manage to significantly develop (e.g. a depression or more) out that far in the Atlantic this early I would bet the "season cancel" folks would change their attitude quickly to :eek:

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:01 pm

even so I wouldn't expect any significant formation out that far until early to mid August but this wave looks very impressive.

#35 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:18:00z Full Disk

Still at this 18:00z full disk image it looks very good.For those who can't see the image,you have to register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html

It's a dead ringer for the wave from last Thursday that fizzled so totally people were asking if the wave was still there yesterday. You couldn't tell which one you were looking at without checking the timestamp.

#36 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:09 pm

curtadams wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18:00z Full Disk

Still at this 18:00z full disk image it looks very good.For those who can't see the image,you have to register for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html

It's a dead ringer for the wave from last Thursday that fizzled so totally people were asking if the wave was still there yesterday. You couldn't tell which one you were looking at without checking the timestamp.

Nope, last week was all mid-level. This is likely a surface system.

Josephine96 · #37 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:14 pm

Could be the seasons 1st CV storm.. we shall see..

#38 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:16 pm

drezee wrote:Nope, last week was all mid-level. This is likely a surface system.

Based on what? Do you have any weather readings from the African coast that indicates this one is surface and last week's wasn't? They look pretty dang similar on satellite.

'CaneFreak · #39 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:32 pm

Looky, looky, our friend is still alive....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Frank2 · #40 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:35 pm

Here's the 18Z Meteosat IR loop - it appears to be moving slightly north of west (not too far south of 15N) while decreasing in intensity:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Impressive system SW of Cape Verde Islands

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