93E Invest at EPAC

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:29 pm

GFDL Animation

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Interesting run from GFDL which has a crossover from the EPAC into the BOC.Of course by the time (If that verifies) it does that remanants will be left as the tall mountains will break it.
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#22 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:36 pm

And those remanants might form Alberto.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
With shear decreasing in the BOC, Alberto is a possibilty.
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#23 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 07, 2006 6:23 pm

GFDL's take on 92E

Seems like there are little to no steering currents to push this thing around till later in the forecast run. I guess that is why none of the models can really get a good handle on it.

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#24 Postby NONAME » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:46 pm

At 126H out GFDL has it as a Hurricane Going Up the West coast of The Gulf. Wow pressure of 989mb and 86.5kt winds.
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#25 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:52 pm

NONAME wrote:At 126H out GFDL has it as a Hurricane Going Up the West coast of The Gulf. Wow pressure of 989mb and 86.5kt winds.

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#26 Postby rockyman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:58 pm

Here's the complete track from the 18z GFDL:

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#27 Postby rockyman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:04 pm

It seems that most models agree that 93E and the "potential low in the BOC" are one and the same...any chance of combining the threads into one? I'm not sure too many on this 93E thread are worried about the effects of the system on Mexico..seems all the talk is about when/if the system crosses over.
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#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:10 pm

rockyman wrote:It seems that most models agree that 93E and the "potential low in the BOC" are one and the same...any chance of combining the threads into one? I'm not sure too many on this 93E thread are worried about the effects of the system on Mexico..seems all the talk is about when/if the system crosses over.


I think that leaving all the discussions as they are right now,BOC models thread and 93E invest thread separated is the best thing.Once 93E is gone then all the talk will go elsewhere.But while the invest is out there the thread will be open for discussions.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:52 pm

Just a little comment, even though the GFDL has earned respect due to its track accuracies overtime, its intensity forecasts are nothing short of horrible. Therefore, I wouldn't pay much attention to the Cat. 2 forecast in the GOM.
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#30 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:54 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Just a little comment, even though the GFDL has earned respect due to its track accuracies overtime, its intensity forecasts are nothing short of horrible. Therefore, I wouldn't pay much attention to the Cat. 2 forecast in the GOM.


where do you see cat 2 in the forecast?
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:56 pm

where do you see cat 2 in the forecast?


Go to BOC models thread on page 7.
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#32 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 9:25 pm

A Cat-2 isn't impossible, the BOC can support a low-end Cat-3 right now temperature wise.
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#33 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:58 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080313
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED JUN 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#34 Postby P.K. » Thu Jun 08, 2006 4:25 am

Was the GFDL run at 0000 GMT? It should have been out 4 hours ago but I can't find any output.
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#35 Postby StormScanWx » Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:10 pm

*BUMP*
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#36 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:14 pm

Wow I forgot that this thread was even here.
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#37 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:49 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081610
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU JUN 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC
WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 08, 2006 5:12 pm

This system has been dropped as an invest by NRL and its back-up site.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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