Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

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stormtruth
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#21 Postby stormtruth » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:13 am

That's a nice blob. What are the water temps like in that area?
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#22 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:14 am

stormtruth wrote:That's a nice blob. What are the water temps like in that area?


The closest buoy is reporting 82 degrees with an east wind of 24mph.
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#23 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:29 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
They dissipate it on the 72 hr. forecast.
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#24 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:36 pm

tailgater wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif
They dissipate it on the 72 hr. forecast.
the link you have here shows a low in the area.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:43 pm

Interesting, look next to the Nicaraguan coast!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
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#26 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:45 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
tailgater wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif
They dissipate it on the 72 hr. forecast.
the link you have here shows a low in the area.

Yes that is for the 48 hr. forecast.
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#27 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Interesting, look next to the Nicaraguan coast!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
wow. May be this is a sign that the NHC is interested.
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#28 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:50 pm

No the nhc is not interested. I don't think they looks that far off...They are more day to day in there jobs. Its most likely another deportment.
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#29 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Interesting, look next to the Nicaraguan coast!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
wow. May be this is a sign that the NHC is interested.


Interesting. And the high placed off to the west there. Waiting period has begun.
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#30 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No the nhc is not interested. I don't think they looks that far off...They are more day to day in there jobs. Its most likely another deportment.


I'M interested.
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#31 Postby mempho » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:11 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No the nhc is not interested. I don't think they looks that far off...They are more day to day in there jobs. Its most likely another deportment.


I'M interested.


As am I...very interesting...I notice that they have it on a NW drift meaning possible land interaction before it can get started...if it can get started. Anyone have a good shear map for the area through 72 hours?
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:11 pm

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COULD
HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW
COULD BE SPAWNED BY THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A STRONG ROTATION OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.

2 PM Discussion about that area.TPC is interested in the area as you can see above.
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#33 Postby mempho » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COULD
HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW
COULD BE SPAWNED BY THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A STRONG ROTATION OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.

2 PM Discussion about that area.TPC is interested in the area as you can see above.


Then the first Bear Watch is officially on!
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#34 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:18 pm

Not yet! They didn't say it "bears watching!" LOL
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#35 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:21 pm

Outflow is developing over the system..notice the "fingers" off to the north of the main blob.
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#36 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COULD
HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW
COULD BE SPAWNED BY THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A STRONG ROTATION OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA.

2 PM Discussion about that area.TPC is interested in the area as you can see above.


Yeah, but they aren't talking about development. Alot of lows develop and thunderstorms flare up around there and wind up doing nothing. If anything is going to develop out of this wave it's most likely going to be in the Pacific.
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#37 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:32 pm

The TAFB is showing the low moving NW toward Belize...not toward the Pacific.
Low level steering is SE to NW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Looks to me like the protective ridge over the NE Gulf is gone has weakened, which could steer a storm into the central or western Gulf.

Lots of spin developing in the lower levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Shear is semi-low and decreasing:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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#38 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:50 pm

Well Persistance is the Key.
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#39 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:51 pm

You can see an outflow boundary leaving the blob on visible. Dunno about this blob....
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#40 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 2:03 pm

rockyman wrote:The TAFB is showing the low moving NW toward Belize...not toward the Pacific.
Low level steering is SE to NW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Looks to me like the protective ridge over the NE Gulf is gone has weakened, which could steer a storm into the central or western Gulf.

Lots of spin developing in the lower levels:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Shear is semi-low and decreasing:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


The wave itself will be heading into the Pacific. The low is only forecasted to develop in the SW Carribean and heading that direction, mostly per GFS.
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