INVEST in EPAC??

Epsilon_Fan · #21 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Fri May 05, 2006 11:16 am

so, are we watching the area near Panama or the one near 120W? Or both? what's the shear like near Panama?

MiamiensisWx · #22 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 11:18 am

I think we are watching the one near 120W... I think the person may have said it was near Panama on the thread title by mistake. There is very little chance of development near Panama, and I don't see much of a system near there. I only see the notable tropical wave near 120W, and even that is not very organized now.

Epsilon_Fan · #23 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Fri May 05, 2006 11:46 am

I think we are watching the one near 120W... I think the person may have said it was near Panama on the thread title by mistake. There is very little chance of development near Panama, and I don't see much of a system near there. I only see the notable tropical wave near 120W, and even that is not very organized now.

that would be me

and I think both areas are worth watching although the 120W area seems more possible now

Hyperstorm · #24 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:18 pm

The system just east of 120W is a very good candidate for potential development, even under current shear values (which are not prohibitively high). Large complex area of very deep convection with obvious signs of strong moisturizing energy in May in the Eastern Pacific only means a favorability of development. Two days and we could be looking at something more consolidated.

Title of thread is misleading...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:22 pm

I agree hyper it looking very good. I see it starting to come together near 11 north/115 west. If it where to move east it would move into more faverable upper levels. This is the most developed system on earth at this moment...I think it should be a invest.

MiamiensisWx · #26 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:29 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:The system just east of 120W is a very good candidate for potential development, even under current shear values (which are not prohibitively high). Large complex area of very deep convection with obvious signs of strong moisturizing energy in May in the Eastern Pacific only means a favorability of development. Two days and we could be looking at something more consolidated.

Title of thread is misleading...

I agree. Even though it is under some shear, it is a MUCH better candidate than the other systems we have seen so far. I think it may well be something to watch for slow, gradual development. It is resembling more of a TRUE tropical wave disturbance (rather than a trough axis), and it shows somes signs of consolidating and forming a possible LLC more than the other systems preceeding this. Who agrees?

#27 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:29 pm

convecting is dissapating at the one near 120W

MiamiensisWx · #28 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:convecting is dissapating at the one near 120W

It's a bit less intense than earlier, but it is one of the first better systems to watch. Also, give it time. It could slowly develop, especially if the current shear decreases more, which it very well could do.

MiamiensisWx · #29 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:34 pm

By the way, the thread title REALLY needs to be edited, since we are talking mostly about the system near 120W which is showing signs of possible slow organization.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #30 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:36 pm

I don't think the Eastern Pacific has ever devleoped a system this early...In the shear to its northwest is very strong. If it where to stay where it is or move to the east then yes. I think the developing LLC is near 11 north/115 west.

CHRISTY · #31 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:42 pm

LOOKS OK AT THE MOMENT...BUT LETS GIVE IT SOMETIME.

MiamiensisWx · #32 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:47 pm

It is under stiff shear right now, but as I said, I think slow development may be very possible.

#33 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:53 pm

i dought it.

MiamiensisWx · #34 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 1:54 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i dought it.

Why? Any thoughts on why you doubt it?

CHRISTY · #35 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 05, 2006 2:33 pm

Convection is all over the place here in the pacific....

MiamiensisWx · #36 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 2:35 pm

It's a bit more disorganized now, but it still has a chance, even with bursts of stiff shear, if convection consolidates a bit more, allowing for some slow development. It has good outflow features on the northern side, too.

MiamiensisWx · #37 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 2:37 pm

By the way, shouldn't this really be classified as an INVEST? I think it should, and it should have been classified earlier as well.

CHRISTY · #38 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 05, 2006 2:39 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:By the way, shouldn't this really be classified as an INVEST? I think it should, and it should have been classified earlier as well.

My guess is it will probably be one soon.

MiamiensisWx · #39 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 05, 2006 2:53 pm

If it maintains it's current organization, I think it might be classified, too. This one, I think, may be a fighter system.

#40 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri May 05, 2006 3:23 pm

maybe ? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

INVEST in EPAC??

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