A New Era??? This season will tell us a lot.

[wxmann_91]

whats CAT V?

Cat 5.

[mempho]

113F 351mph 391mph (Sixth 5 degree increase=66mph per 5 degrees)
117F 428mph 468mph (Seventh 5 degree increase=77mph per 5 degrees)

I'm not 100% certain; but I don't believe the wind speeds in the Giant Red Spot of Jupiter reach these levels.

A2K

I'm not sure about the Great Red Spot except that I know that the wind speed in the anticylone has increased over 700km/h over the last couple of decades.

I read about a storm a few days ago and I found the link...it has winds over 1,200 mph.

http://www.solarviews.com/eng/neptune.htm

[gatorcane]

winds over 1200 mph are unlikely on Earth.

[Audrey2Katrina]

113F 351mph 391mph (Sixth 5 degree increase=66mph per 5 degrees)
117F 428mph 468mph (Seventh 5 degree increase=77mph per 5 degrees)

I'm not 100% certain; but I don't believe the wind speeds in the Giant Red Spot of Jupiter reach these levels.

A2K

I'm not sure about the Great Red Spot except that I know that the wind speed in the anticylone has increased over 700km/h over the last couple of decades.

I read about a storm a few days ago and I found the link...it has winds over 1,200 mph.

http://www.solarviews.com/eng/neptune.htm

No argument, but comment: Neptune's Dark Spot is no longer there... at least it seems to have "disappeared" since Voyager passed it. The only point I was making was that wind speeds of these extremes are exceptionally rare, [certainly on any terrestrial planet, Neptune is a Gas Giant, and subject to much higher extremes] and Neptune's, by this very article, are the most extreme in the solar system. I just don't see a storm on a terrestrial planet, particularly ours, having wind speeds remotely as high as cited by those latter numbers. Perhaps it's possible as I'm certainly no paleoclimatologist, but I have seen documentaries about the "hypercanes" and the likelihood of something such as that is not only controversial, it's very much debated as a possibility. Much more than water temps are required to create a super-"duper" hurricane.

A2K

[quandary]

One thing to note is that the stronger these storms get, the more powerful they seem to become....i.e., the rich get richer. You see very few "marginal Cat Vs....usually they blow up to extremes once they reach that level. Andrew is a big exception, but it hit land while still strengthening.

EDIT: If this holds true...we should expect increased intensities of 11-33mph over this period of warmer waters.

That's not really true. In fact, low end category 5s and upper end category 4s are extremely common. See for example, Isabel, Ivan, Ethel, Andrew, Hugo... if you look at the storms with minimum pressure between 910 and 925, almost all would qualify as marginal Cat 5s (or otherwise upper end Cat 4s).

And there have only been a handful of storms under 910 (Ivan's strength).
Mitch, Camille, Katrina, Allan, Rita, FL Keys, Gilbert and Wilma to name them all. Just 8 out of 45ish Cat 5s.

[gatorcane]

Just remember all big CAT 5s last year weakened to CAT 3s or lower before making landfall....

(not that a CAT 3 is weak or anything).

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oh geez. Here we go again.

[gatorcane]

[CHRISTY]

If anyone missed tonights talkin tropics show here's the link.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/

[mempho]

113F 351mph 391mph (Sixth 5 degree increase=66mph per 5 degrees)
117F 428mph 468mph (Seventh 5 degree increase=77mph per 5 degrees)

I'm not 100% certain; but I don't believe the wind speeds in the Giant Red Spot of Jupiter reach these levels.

A2K

I'm not sure about the Great Red Spot except that I know that the wind speed in the anticylone has increased over 700km/h over the last couple of decades.

I read about a storm a few days ago and I found the link...it has winds over 1,200 mph.

http://www.solarviews.com/eng/neptune.htm

I can't be sure whether hypercanes are even possible and, if indeed they are not, then this "exponential increase" is pure garbage. That said, I don't know that cyclonic and anticyclonic speeds from storms on other planets tell us that much. We do know of 300mph+ tornadoes, so I don't find it inconceivable that it could go higher. It is highly likely, however, that any hurricane that took on such high winds would look similar in structure to Wilma. In fact, I seriously doubt that they found the highest sustained winds in Wilma...that hurricane was difficult to work with from an operational standpoint.

[LSU2001]

sorry question was already answered.

[pup55]

103F 230mph 270mph (Fourth 5 degree increase=44mph per 5 degrees)

Just as a reminder, this is roughly the temperature of a typical jaccuzi.

If the SST's actually get this high, we will have a lot of other problems to worry about i.e. fish and plankton dieoff, coral death (already started).

Also, the same conditions that cause jacuzzi like temperatures will by that time have caused serious climate and agriculture issues on nearby land, so a lot of us will be starving.

The persian gulf, surrounded by hotter than hell desert and with an average depth of only about 118 feet, only gets up to 90F.


http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-22739 persian gulf sst's.

http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/w.pac.warm/w.pac.warm.htm the Pacific Warm Pool (29.5 degrees C) also gets up only to around 90F, no doubt because it is much deeper water.

[mempho]

Pup,

I don't think that those types of SSTs are in store for us (I certainly hope not, anyway) but what I was trying to do was exptrapolate a hypothesis for hypercanes down to something that might show us what much smaller increases in sea temperature can do. The increase would be exponential which is good, in a way, since a linear graph of the relationship between SSTs and MSW would be much steeper and would have some seriously dire consequences. Seriously, though, 15mph is nothing to sneeze at, especially if we somehow add that to every storm that comes across....Cat 2s become majors, Cat 4's become 5s. When one considers the exponential effects of wind speed (when related to damage) 15mph would be a huge deal.

[pup55]

Now I understand. You had me scared for a minute. (whew)

This makes sense to me, based on thermodynamics. It takes a massive amount of energy to warm up that much water by 1-2 degrees. This energy will ultimately be released back out into the system at some point.

We don't have a choice as to how and/or when this will take place.

Gotta start a little food and water storage stash.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The persian gulf, surrounded by hotter than hell desert and with an average depth of only about 118 feet, only gets up to 90F.

The specific heat of water is relatively high, and the air temps would have to be unbelievable to make the volumes of water in the oceans rise to such levels.

A2K