VSCS Mala - Landfall: Myanmar - 22 deaths

[HurricaneBill]

I think the evacuation was re Cyclone 07B last year, that could have become Mala if it intensified further (but it didn't).

Nothing in the official (?) Myanmar site on internet re the real Mala today:
http://www.myanmar.com/nlm/

I find it ironic that Myanmar has an official website. I think I read somewhere that it is illegal for people to have the internet in Myanmar.

[terstorm1012]

I find that ironic too.

I do think that this stretch of coast may be sparsely inhabited. I don't recall Myanmar having horrific death tolls from the tsunami in 2004, and this coast was most likely hit.

Though it does look like the storm, once it heads inland, will roll right over the capital city of Rangoon, or near it.

[HurricaneBill]

Bangladesh is concerned about Cyclone Mala.

April 29th marks the 15th anniversary of the horrific 1991 cyclone that struck Bangladesh, killing 139,000 people.

[CHRISTY]

This is going to be a horrible situation...here's the forcast from hurricanealley.



and here's 2 IR images of MALA.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow 145kts at landfall.

[skysummit]

Wow 145kts at landfall.

Notice that's "Gusts" though. It's 120kts at landfall.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow 145kts at landfall.

Notice that's "Gusts" though. It's 120kts at landfall.

Right I forgot thanks for the fyi...

[HURAKAN]

JTWC now forecast 100 mph at landfall, still, a very intense storm.

[terstorm1012]

Ok I was incorrect...it looks like the Capital city will not get the most intense part of the storm...thanks for the update Hurakan

[HURAKAN]

Ok I was incorrect...it looks like the Capital city will not get the most intense part of the storm...thanks for the update Hurakan

YW. Furthermore, maybe the capital won't get the worse, but since the system is moving northeast, and west of the delta of Irrawaddy, this means that the delta regions is getting the worse of the storm, and sea water should be flowing upstream due to the storm surge, which will create the perfect conditions for flooding. I hope this doesn't occur, but it seems so.

[terstorm1012]

I hadn't considered that...forgot that the Irrawaddy Delta was a lot like our Mississippi Delta...I do hope that doesn't occur either

[MiamiensisWx]

Mala is really getting sheared right now on the latest imagery. Is anyone else noticing that?

[HURAKAN]

Mala is really getting sheared right now on the latest imagery. Is anyone else noticing that?

Mala is being affected by a trough that should pick the system and in time both systems should merge. It's difficult to predict how much it will weaken before landfall, because in 2001 Michelle was very sheared getting near Cuba and it didn't weaken even though the clear eye disappeared completely. Let see what happens, but nevertheless, flooding should be the major concern even after the storm dissipates. Remember, as we move north across Myanmar the terrain becomes mountainous, which will lead to continues orographical flooding as all the moisture that the cyclonic storm will take with it.

[MiamiensisWx]

As it merges closer to the trough, I have a feeling that this may well cause serious flooding. I agree, Sandy.

[dwsqos2]

This imagery suggests that MALA is nearing the completion of an ERC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2006_02B/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it has completed its erc according to imagery
much larger eye

[HURAKAN]

Landfall is just hours away and shear values are increasing. So, I don't think it will have any time at all to intensify given the conditions. Furthermore, do to the curved coastline of Myanmar, most of the circulation is already overland which should be another factor against intensification. I just see weakening from here on.

[CHRISTY]

MALA IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL....

[Jim Cantore]

Is she still at 115kts?

[CHRISTY]

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SEVEN ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 28TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC NEAR LAT. 16.0 N AND LONG. 93.0 E ABOUT 500 KM NORTH OF PORTBLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SANDWAY(48080) ARROUND 0600 UTC OF 29 APRIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 100-110 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.



FORECAST INTENSITY T6.0 AFTER 12 HOURS.