Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

[P.K.]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-04-2006(.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL
AND AJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION(.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND
PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE
INDIAN REGION (.)

-----
It is later mentioned here as well from the 12pm GMT bulletin.

I W B 24TH EVE

THE LOPAR OVER SE-BAY AND ADJ S ADMN SEA PERSISTS(.) ASSTD CYCIR
EXTNDS UPTO 1.5 KMS ASL(.) THE TRGH/WIND DISCONTINUITY AT 0.9 KM ASL
FROM CHTGH TO S T-NADU THRU VIDH TLGNA R-SEEMA AND SIK PERSISTS(.)
THE CYCIR EXTDNG UPTO 1.5 KMS ASL OVER BIHAR AND N/H PERSISTS(.) THE
OTHER CYCIR EXTDNG UPTO 1.5 KMS ASL OVER PJB HRY AND N/H ALSO PERSISTS(.)
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE ENE-WARDS(.)

FORECAST:- RA/THRS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MANY PLACES IN A/N IDS
AND AT ISOL PLACES IN ARU-PR ASSAM/MEGHA NMMT WB/SKM ORISSA JHKHD
BIHAR UP HRY PJB N-RAJ VIDH CHTGH TELGNA R-SEEMA T-NADU SIK AND KERALA(.)
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY(.) =

[CHRISTY]

POSSIBLE TD!

[P.K.]

The first category in this area is Deep Depression rather than Tropical Depression.

[HURAKAN]

The first category in this area is Deep Depression rather than Tropical Depression.

DD!

[P.K.]

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 24 1800 UTC 24 APRIL 2006

PART-I :-NO STORM WARNING
PART-II:-THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SE BAY AND ADJ SOUTH
ANDAMAN SEA PERSISTS(.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.)

PART-III:- FORECAST

ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:-NW/W 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD(.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)

ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-SW 15/20 KTS BEC N/NW TO THE EAST OF 68 DEG.N(.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.)

BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 12 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E.
I)WIND:W/SW 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT.
08 DEG.N AND LONG 91 DEG.E (.)
II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.)

BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 12 DEG.N.
I)WIND:-ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE AXIS OF LAT. 14 DEG.N (.)
II)WEATHER:- ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN(.)
IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

System upgraded to 02b by the jtwc 35 knots.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GOOD!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at the juice this system gots to work with. Wow this could be the first since 1999 if the enviroment stays faverable.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/26.html

[CHRISTY]

REALLY LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED...

[P.K.]

Nothing yet officially. The system the JTWC had down as TC01 never made deep depression status.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is a depression or maybe a tropical storm. To bad you know who is a sleep.

[CHRISTY]

Looks Like a (TD) To Me...We can keep track of it here on this visible loop!just refresh it once in a while.

[P.K.]

NWP from the IMD.

[HURAKAN]

NOGAPS is forecasting landfall in 5 days in Myanmar (Burma).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... sf&tau=120

[CHRISTY]

[CHRISTY]

check out this VISIBLE from digital typhoon...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow its already forming a central core and outflow...Something tells me with the 29 to 30c sst's under this it might be a strong one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 APR 2006 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 9:02:39 N Lon : 89:22:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Eye Temp : -79.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

A VERY INTENSE BLOB OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE AND/OR OVER THE CIRCULATION. IT'S INTENSIFYING PRETTY NICELY.

[HURAKAN]

NORTH OF TC 02B THE SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG, BUT IT HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.