How strong could an Atlantic/Carrib/GOM storm get MCP-wise?

[Audrey2Katrina]

the MPI in the NW Caribbean is closer to 850mb, and the eddy that Katrina crossed was even more rediculous. Our MM5 at UM simulation had an MPI of about 810mb for Katrina over the eddy

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/%7Ejohnc/an ... na_mpi.jpg

Well that WAS Derek's quote, which is why I asked in the first place. It appears that if Wilma's MPI was 850 and she reached 882, I guess you could say it was close, still, 32 mb can make quite a difference in what a storm is, vs. what it could be. With Katrina's MPI at 810 crossing that eddy, it appears there was a wide chasm in potential and actual--showing that those "ideal" conditions are not easy to reach--particularly for storms with such deep MPI's.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Okay, these are coming in way too fast to keep track but it appears MPI is largely a product of SST's, and I imagine a few other criteria/variables, but I see what you were saying before the last edit.

Concerning Rita, what was her lowest pressure? Something around 890 or thereabouts? Thought she might've broken Gilbert's record too, and held it till Wilma came along. Only 10 away? That means the MPI measurements given her track was what? 870's? I don't pretend to understand all the intricacies involved with calculating MPI's and what storms can approach them; but I would hazard a guess that the higher the MPI the more likely a storm is to realize that potential. It's just hard to fathom a storm, Katrina or any other, reaching a MCP of 810 mb. Like I already said, I suppose anything is possible given our short period of time on this planet, much less the time for which we've actually got records; but with what we do have, pressures lower than Wilma's are apparently few and far between, regardless of the MPI.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Something was keeping Katrina well short of its MPI, which is a very scary thought. Had it have been more efficient, it may very well have hit as a cat 4 or a 5 along the Gulf Coast

Thank heaven for small favors!

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

With a high enough SST, low enough sheer, moist air, and enough time I could see a storm going below 870mb

[Scorpion]

Maybe Camille was able to take advantage of the MPI and hit as a strong 4 or 5 on the GOM.

[MiamiensisWx]

Camille was likely close to 180MPH at it's peak.

[Jim Cantore]

Camille was likely close to 180MPH at it's peak.

Agree, 190 seems a bit high

anyway what do you think the pressure would be in one of those Hypercanes, 700 something millabars?

[MiamiensisWx]

Agree, 190 seems a bit high

anyway what do you think the pressure would be in one of those Hypercanes, 700 something millabars?

I'd say around 680 to 730 millibars, depending on the pressure gradient.

[Jim Cantore]

Agree, 190 seems a bit high

anyway what do you think the pressure would be in one of those Hypercanes, 700 something millabars?

I'd say around 680 to 730 millibars, depending on the pressure gradient.

pressure that low, you'd suffocate

[weatherwoman132]

wow. cant imagine that...

[Scorpion]

No lol 680-730 mb you wouldnt suffocate. 700 mb is around 10000 ft. You can be at 10000 feet perfectly fine without oxygen though you might get tired easier. That kind of storm would have one hell of a windfield though.

[weatherwoman132]

oh yeah.

[windycity]

all i can say, with SSTs the way they are in the western carib, we could very well have another 2005
........
,

[weatherwoman132]

I hope not, I really do.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Granted, 700 mb is not only a probable pressure, it is a reality at those altitudes, at the top of Mt. Everest it's close to 300; but when talking about bringing a low pressure down to sea-level, that's a different animal. Typhoon Tip had those 190 mph gusts and the lowest ever non-tornadic central pressure, and even it was 870 mb which is why I still say an Atlantic hurricane having a pressure below 880, while certainly a possibility, is also highly unlikely, and one with a pressure below 800 is unheard of in recorded history--just look at Tip and imagine something larger or more intense than that sucker!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Wonder what Tip's MPI must've been.

A2K

[ROCK]

With a high enough SST, low enough sheer, moist air, and enough time I could see a storm going below 870mb

I agree. Would have to have perfect conditions...

[weatherwoman132]

ouch. lol

[Jim Cantore]

With a high enough SST, low enough sheer, moist air, and enough time I could see a storm going below 870mb

I agree. Would have to have perfect conditions...

Conditions better then what Wlma had and she had ideal conditions at the time

[weatherwoman132]

oh gosh...that's scary when yuo think about it.