Met Dr. Steve Lyons: his thoughts on Katrina, etc.

[Audrey2Katrina]

If you actually did speak with him and he made those comments then
I have no gripe with them at all. He knows way more than most of us on this board so who are we to disagree with "his" opinions.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Yet I wish to state emphatically that I agree with just about everything he said.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Man-O-Man... I can only imagine the discussion this thread's gonna generate!!!

ROFL... I was thinking exactly the same thing!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Of course Andrew was a 5. Anyone who doubts it has to be crazy. Have you seen the radar images at landfall? Unbroken, perfectly symmetrical eyewall. Look at the damage photos. They speak for themselves.

I agree with you completely on the compact and symmetrical eyewall; and yet we are told, and have been repeatedly, that "the damage" is not necessarily a definitive indication of sustained winds--and that has some validity. That said, I would hardly call Dr. Lyons, or the other pros who feel differently, "crazy".

A2K

[MiamiensisWx]

I still truthfully think Katrina's surge was a combination of the large size of the storm along with the fact that it "built up" the surge as it strengthened into a large Category Five before weakening before landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agrew with you completely on the compact and symmetrical eyewall; and yet we are told, and have been repeatedly, that "the damage" is not necessarily a definitive indication of sustained winds--and that has some validity. That said, I would hardly call Dr. Lyons, or the other pros who feel differently, "crazy".

A2K

Yep... wind damage dosn't tell the whole story, especially when you see mobile homes destroyed. Category One to Category Two winds can wreck mobile homes.

[ROCK]

I agrew with you completely on the compact and symmetrical eyewall; and yet we are told, and have been repeatedly, that "the damage" is not necessarily a definitive indication of sustained winds--and that has some validity. That said, I would hardly call Dr. Lyons, or the other pros who feel differently, "crazy".

A2K

Yep... wind damage dosn't tell the whole story, especially when you see mobile homes destroyed. Category One to Category Two winds can wreck mobile homes.

AND cause major damage to trees, billboards, gas station awnings and the like.

[StormScanWx]

I agree... Andrew wasn't a cat 5...

I disagree, based on the evidence the NHC and others have presented, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 Hurricane when it hit southern Florida.

[f5]

I agree... Andrew wasn't a cat 5...

I disagree, based on the evidence the NHC and others have presented, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 Hurricane when it hit southern Florida.

Andrew looked like a compact buzzsaw

[Audrey2Katrina]

I agree... Andrew wasn't a cat 5...

I disagree, based on the evidence the NHC and others have presented, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 Hurricane when it hit southern Florida.

That was "revised" data, done long after-the-fact, and recall that Dr. Lyons said there are otherS (colleagues of his) possibly in the NHC itself who adamantly do NOT agree with the upgrade. Having said that, I agree, it was certainly a compact buzzsaw that did unprecedented damage.

A2K

[Pearl River]

ROCK wrote

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
I agrew with you completely on the compact and symmetrical eyewall; and yet we are told, and have been repeatedly, that "the damage" is not necessarily a definitive indication of sustained winds--and that has some validity. That said, I would hardly call Dr. Lyons, or the other pros who feel differently, "crazy".

A2K


Yep... wind damage dosn't tell the whole story, especially when you see mobile homes destroyed. Category One to Category Two winds can wreck mobile homes.


AND cause major damage to trees, billboards, gas station awnings and the like.

Yep....just like the Charley video

Steve wrote:
>>He thinks the NHC live and die by the models too much sometimes. The Ivan example was brought up, when the GFS (and the tropical models run off that) continually depicted it turning north way too early. Someone else brought up that the GFS had been underestimating the subtropical ridge before Ivan for the week before or so, and Dr. Lyons couldn’t understand why NHC would still go with the GFS in this case.

That's interesting since it's pretty much what TWC does with their forecasts as well as rarely bucking the NHC's forecasts. Maybe he knows better, but just sticks to what he's told to do.

Steve




agreed. TWC does the exact same thing. Never did like Lyons...

The NHC is the official forecast. TWC cannot give their own forecast when it comes to hurricanes, they have to abide by what the NHC puts out.

Dr Lyons used to work at the NHC. So I guess he must be way out in left field now since he doesn't agree with their findings and he's not entitled to his opinion since it doesn't agree with most of the one's here.

[Derek Ortt]

TWC does not have to go with NHC. NWS is the official weather forecast as well, and they do not go with NWS. TWC can go with their own, in fact, they do as their cone is NOT the NHC cone

[ROCK]

Thanks for clearing that up Derek. You beat me to it.....

[Stratosphere747]

I've felt for sometime that Steve Lyons is one of the best tropical mets out there. *And not just because he has roots at A&M*

There is no doubt in my mind that if TWC would actually turn Steve loose and explain what is going on, he would blow you mind. The problem is that IMO they want him to talk in layman’s terms to the general public because of their perception of the "naivety" of the common viewer.

Too many times Steve is attacked or grilled because of his on-air ability. Reason being that he is talking down to the viewer. That is what he is uncomfortable with and is noticeable in his presentations. Many a time I've seen him begin to give a true met view on a system and he catches himself to explain it in a different manner. The TWC should turn him loose and let him show what he really knows. Many would be surprised!!

[jazzfan1247]

TWC does not have to go with NHC. NWS is the official weather forecast as well, and they do not go with NWS. TWC can go with their own, in fact, they do as their cone is NOT the NHC cone

Yes, this is correct. The TWC cone is NOT exactly the same as the NHC's. He stated that his cone was farther south than the NHC's during Ivan, although I can't verify this cuz I don't watch TWC anywhere near as much anymore. He showed a sample Wilma TWC cone in which he chose to stop it before the typical 5-day, as to not incite panic among South Florida and New England residents too early.

[cheezyWXguy]

what about wunderground.com...in their hurricane archives they show andrew as a 135-145 mph hurricane...Im getting confused here

[Extremeweatherguy]

>>Even if Andrew was a Cat. 5...the area that saw Cat. 5 winds was exceptionally small. Most of the destroyed areas saw Cat. 4 force winds...and in Downtown Miami they only saw Cat. 1/2 force winds.

>>Concerning Katrina...I would still have to disagree on the fact that it was still a 4 at landfall...may be right before landfall, but not at landfall. Now the surge was large because of the area the hurricane hit (one of the most surge prone areas in the US) and because the storm was a Cat. 5 a day earlier...but that does not mean that the storm was a Cat. 4 at landfall. I still think it was a Cat. 4 hours before landfall...a strong Cat. 3 at landfall..and a strong cat. 2/weak cat. 3 on 2nd landfall. I also think that most areas only saw Cat. 1-2 force winds with gusts to Cat. 3. I saw some video taken in N.O. right after Katrina and I was noticing that *most* homes had little to no shingle and roofing damage...this is NOT something you would see from a Cat. 2 or 3 force wind. Sure the surge was bad, and the wind was bad...but it looked like (in N.O. at least), that the wind was not that of a major hurricane.

>>As for Steve Lyons...I like him a lot. He is usually a good forecaster to watch for hurricanes. He has nice graphics and makes it easy to understand for the average american. I think his forecasts are very nicely done. I do sometimes disagree with him on a few things and I have seen him mess up a few times...but overall he is pretty good at tropical forecasting. I will be watching his tropical updates this season for sure!

[Audrey2Katrina]

I saw some video taken in N.O. right after Katrina

Which just goes to show you, you can't possibly categorize a storm by this video or that one. If you saw video where "most" homes had little to "no" shingle roofing damage, it sure wasn't the many areas of New Orleans I've been through. The city extends over an expanse from Jefferson to the Rigolets, and that's about 25 miles. I can assure you that "most" of the homes where I live had to have blue tarps, and a lot of the areas of New Orleans that would have received the worst winds, were much further east, and probably later utterly destroyed by the flood damage.

I think Lyons was right on target; But hey, to each his/her own.

A2K

[skysummit]

The videos that are shown do not show crap. I'm on my way back from NOLA east right now (yes I have internet in my truck), and there's TONS of wind damage. Are they still offering those tours for $35? Maybe a few more people should take them to see what they're not seeing.

[jazzfan1247]

FWIW, Dr. Lyons seemed to fully back the notion that most of New Orleans got Cat 1 sustained winds (and eastern Cat 2)...

[skysummit]

I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.