Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

[HURAKAN]

NO MATTER WHAT KIND OF SATELLITE IMAGE YOU USE, SHE'S LOOKIN' GOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!

Ill say, its looking like this could be a biggie...any chance this would be one of those "major cyclones"(you know the reg. CAT3 and above)

I THINK IT'S VERY POSSIBLE IF THIS CONTINUES!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think cat4 or above if it continues wahooo!!!

[HURAKAN]

24/0230 UTC 10.9S 81.0E T3.5/3.5 14S -- South Indian Ocean


ONCE AGAIN, NO SURPRISE!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.8S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND ONLY
MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//

NNNN

The JTWC appears slow to react, once again!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bomb baby BOMB!!!

[senorpepr]

///40kt (10-min) ... 45kt (US 1-min)///
///Officially upgraded to "Carina"///


BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 11.4 SUD / 81.4 EST
(ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2925 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14S/81.1E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.7S/78.9E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.5S/77.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION CE VENDREDI 24 FEVRIER A 16H30


078
WTIO30 FMEE 240624

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 14.0S/81.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 15.1S/79.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 16.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 16.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.0-
THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY: UNDERGOING
RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE).
LAST SSMI F15 AT 0258UTC AND TRMM AT 0122UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY SHOWS A
CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6 TENTHS BANDING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY
UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

[James]

Well, she's up to 55kts now then, and could that be an eye feature developing?

[senorpepr]

I'm not sure about an eye feature. Maybe some slight warming on infrared, but nothing apparent on visible yet.

It will be interesting to see what the official forecast shows as last report was 40kt (10-min)/45kt (US 1-min).

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 11.6 SUD / 81.1 EST
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2890 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 3 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13S/80.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.1S/79.6E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.6S/77.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION CE VENDREDI 24 FEVRIER A 22H30

CONTINUES TO GET INTENSE!

[Yarrah]

Hmm, pretty confusing, all those different windspeeds. Is there some sort of formula to convert 10-minute average windspeeds to 1-minute average windspeeds and vice versa?

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

Hmm, pretty confusing, all those different windspeeds. Is there some sort of formula to convert 10-minute average windspeeds to 1-minute average windspeeds and vice versa?

10-min = 1-min / 1.14
1-min = 10-min * 1.14

Therefore, say MFR says 40KT. 40kt * 1.14 = ~45kt (1-min US standard)

[senorpepr]

Data on the S2k Worldwide Tropical Update reflects the name "Carina"

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/swio.htm

[P.K.]

Hmm, pretty confusing, all those different windspeeds. Is there some sort of formula to convert 10-minute average windspeeds to 1-minute average windspeeds and vice versa?

Don't know if others do this but I don't convert windspeeds. I'll just use the averaging period the RSMC use. Given where you are the KNMI will use a ten minute averaging period if you want to compare with systems in the tropics.

[senorpepr]

The only reason why I convert is for other users that wonders why there is a large difference between the official RSMC and the unofficial JTWC when, in fact, there might not actually be that large of a difference.

[Derek Ortt]

sometimes though, even with the conversion, JTWC seems to be too high on the intensity

[P.K.]

I'd agree with you there Derek, I don't even look at JTWC advisories although I do notice the few that get posted here. By the way I've posted a comparison of JMA ACE value in the "WPAC ACE 2005" thread.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a strong tropical storm (50kts).

BULLETIN DU 24 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 985 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 12.0 SUD / 80.6 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2820 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.1S/79.6E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.2S/78.6E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.2S/77.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE DEMAIN MATIN A 04H30 LOCALES.

[James]

She's definately looking very well organised right now, with a lot of convection flaring.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not bad, but it looks like some shear may be beginning to impact the northeast side of the storm!