Will New Orleans be hit by another major hurricane?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I seriously doubt we'll have a direct hit. Katrina was our first in 40 years. We are hit by a category 1, on average, every 9 years. However, I'm sure we'll see plenty of tropical moisture and tropical storm force winds with some system would be probable.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Geologically speaking there is no doubt the scenario you describe is an inevitability; but in terms of more immediacy I rather doubt it in the forseeable future--at least should they take better precautions for protection this time. Of course I concede knowing our politicians predilection for integrity that's a very big IF; and of course on the same IF, should the global warming enthusiasts be correct, vast sections of Florida, and the Carolinas as well will be reclaimed. For the time being, all we can do is make the most (hopefully) with what we have, and hope and pray for the best.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

And returning to the theme of the topic, it's virtually a certainty that sooner or later it will be revisited; we have history's record however far spaced they be, to confirm such a suspicion. But please, God, not for a looooong time! And may we have the protection we should've had for this one.

A2K

[Ixolib]

Well, actually, N.O. didn't get "hit" last year. They were on the west side of a landfalling cane - not the east or northeast.

Had it not been for the fact that they are ALREADY below sea level (duh), Katrina's impact on that city would have been similar to Ivan's impact on the MS coastline - which was relatively minimal.

I just get a little miffed with the story of N.O. continuing to take the lion's share of concern.

For a comparison, N.O. - as we all know - is below sea level. Why then does everyone get surprised or say OMG when they go under water? I agree it's amazing, but certainly not unexpected. On the other hand, my property here in Biloxi is about 25 feet ABOVE sea level and I still took four feet in my house. Now that is a story in and of itself!!

We ain't seen nothing yet... Wait 'til N.O. does actually get "hit" by a major. But even then, the result won't be a surprise. The sad fact is they are now - and always will be - below sea level. That's a reality that cannot be changed... In that case, even the higher neighborhoods uptown, in the quarter, and in the garden district will take a significant hit.

[Pearl River]

I sympathize with everyone on the MS coast because I have seen the damage first hand myself, but believe me, the MS coast isn't the only place being ignored. Plaquemines, St Bernard and Slidell have also been ignored too.

[TheEuropean]

I voted yes.

"Will N.O be hit or affected by another major hurricane this year?"

I don't expect a direct hit, although I can't rule it out. But probably a major hurricane will affect the area.

[LSU2001]

If we look at last year and the previous 5-10 years I would have to say that NOLA has a better than even chance to see a major. Really beginning with Georges NOLA has managed to dodge bullets from Georges, Ivan, Isidore,Lilli, Dennis, and Rita. Katrina continued the trend of veering away at the last minute. However, this trend cannot last. It is clear to me at least that even with Katrina NOLA has still not been directly "Hit" by a major hurricane. The comparison to Betsy is not that accurate in that Betsy traveled further inland over southeast La. whereas Katrina moved over extreme southeast La. and then made landfall again along the Miss coast. Had Katrina been on a true Betsy like track La. would have been much harder hit. I believe that the trend of storms landfalling further and further west could spell big trouble for the big easy and all of south la.
JMHO,
Tim

[zoeyann]

I see what you are saying lsu, but Isidore was never a major threat. But I am talking intensity. So if you are including Isidore based on intensity you can also include Cindy. And while you are speaking of New Orleans metro do not forget Lili did flood the bayou areas to the south of New Orleans and so did Rita. Not trying to nit pick honestly because your right that New Orleans has dodge major direct impacts,but the areas nearby did not always fare as well and that gets forgotten sometimes. But the Besty senerio is the one I am most afraid of. Betsy came in pretty much right over Terrebonne. Besty's angle with Katrina's destuctive surge would have taken out Terrebonne and Lafourche along with eveything else.

[Steve]

>>dont take this the wrong way... but the NGOM is the best place for a major to hit as it will not cause much damage in a relative sense... sort of what we saw with Dennis. It will be a set back for the areas, but the overall impact will be less than if one crashes into Corpus Christi. This was evidenced in Frances and jeanne when the stronger Jeanne caaused less damage than Frances as Jeanne hit an already devastated region

Frances did more damage in New Orleans than it did on the Texas coast (assuming you're talking 1998). The northern gulf is only good, as another said it, if a small storm hits a sparsely populated area. Any time New Orleans, MS GC or Mobile is affected, it's not a good thing.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

I was talking about Frances 2004 and using that to document how Jeanne hit the best place to cause the least amount of damage

[Ixolib]

If we look at last year and the previous 5-10 years I would have to say that NOLA has a better than even chance to see a major. Really beginning with Georges NOLA has managed to dodge bullets from Georges, Ivan, Isidore,Lilli, Dennis, and Rita. Katrina continued the trend of veering away at the last minute. However, this trend cannot last. It is clear to me at least that even with Katrina NOLA has still not been directly "Hit" by a major hurricane. The comparison to Betsy is not that accurate in that Betsy traveled further inland over southeast La. whereas Katrina moved over extreme southeast La. and then made landfall again along the Miss coast. Had Katrina been on a true Betsy like track La. would have been much harder hit. I believe that the trend of storms landfalling further and further west could spell big trouble for the big easy and all of south la.
JMHO,
Tim

And lete's not forget how N.O. dodged Camille as well. Another few miles (<70) to the west, and the result would have been much different.

[f5]

Katrina looked like the doomsdays storm for NO at her peak

[wxman57]

It may only take a strong tropical storm to put New Orleans underwater again. Those levees have been fixed to a degree, but I doubt they'll be in as good as or better shape than they were last year. Sure, the breaks in the levees may be shored-up, but what about the areas where the levees were ABOUT to break but just held? Heck, a heavy rain may cause a lot of problems there. Fortunately, it has hardly rained there since Katrina. I think there's a better than not chance that New Orleans will flood again this season, and it may just take a tropical storm.

[zoeyann]

It may only take a strong tropical storm to put New Orleans underwater again. Those levees have been fixed to a degree, but I doubt they'll be in as good as or better shape than they were last year. Sure, the breaks in the levees may be shored-up, but what about the areas where the levees were ABOUT to break but just held? Heck, a heavy rain may cause a lot of problems there. Fortunately, it has hardly rained there since Katrina. I think there's a better than not chance that New Orleans will flood again this season, and it may just take a tropical storm.

100% correct. Where I am at the levees weren't that great before, and now they are patched. Alot of people do not have any faith in them. The lady at the planning office told me there has been a steady flow of people in there to get the ball rolling so they can raise their houses. We have to go up to twelve feet, but it will be worth it.

[JonathanBelles]

It may only take a strong tropical storm to put New Orleans underwater again. Those levees have been fixed to a degree, but I doubt they'll be in as good as or better shape than they were last year. Sure, the breaks in the levees may be shored-up, but what about the areas where the levees were ABOUT to break but just held? Heck, a heavy rain may cause a lot of problems there. Fortunately, it has hardly rained there since Katrina. I think there's a better than not chance that New Orleans will flood again this season, and it may just take a tropical storm.

100% correct. Where I am at the levees weren't that great before, and now they are patched. Alot of people do not have any faith in them. The lady at the planning office told me there has been a steady flow of people in there to get the ball rolling so they can raise their houses. We have to go up to twelve feet, but it will be worth it.

will u be putting ur house on stilts or will u be moving ur house all together?

[zoeyann]

Putting it on stilts. It will be really weird. Won't protect us from everything, but it will help. I was so jealous when we were in the boat trying to get back as we passed peoples whose houses were raised really high. We decieded it had to be done.

[wxmann_91]

I see what you are saying lsu, but Isidore was never a major threat. But I am talking intensity. So if you are including Isidore based on intensity you can also include Cindy. And while you are speaking of New Orleans metro do not forget Lili did flood the bayou areas to the south of New Orleans and so did Rita. Not trying to nit pick honestly because your right that New Orleans has dodge major direct impacts,but the areas nearby did not always fare as well and that gets forgotten sometimes. But the Besty senerio is the one I am most afraid of. Betsy came in pretty much right over Terrebonne. Besty's angle with Katrina's destuctive surge would have taken out Terrebonne and Lafourche along with eveything else.

Isidore was a large and slow-moving hurricane, and had it not dove south into the Yucatan, it could've really did some damage as it was progged to head toward New Orleans.

If we look at last year and the previous 5-10 years I would have to say that NOLA has a better than even chance to see a major. Really beginning with Georges NOLA has managed to dodge bullets from Georges, Ivan, Isidore,Lilli, Dennis, and Rita. Katrina continued the trend of veering away at the last minute. However, this trend cannot last. It is clear to me at least that even with Katrina NOLA has still not been directly "Hit" by a major hurricane. The comparison to Betsy is not that accurate in that Betsy traveled further inland over southeast La. whereas Katrina moved over extreme southeast La. and then made landfall again along the Miss coast. Had Katrina been on a true Betsy like track La. would have been much harder hit. I believe that the trend of storms landfalling further and further west could spell big trouble for the big easy and all of south la.
JMHO,
Tim

True, but Betsy stayed farther away from New Orleans than Katrina. A true worst-case track would be a hit between Katrina and Betsy.

Both of you have good points, and yes it is not just New Orleans, but the entire coast of Louisiana, that is sinking. Land is being devoured at an unbelievably rapid rate, and much of the marshlands of southern Louisiana could be gone in 100 years if this trend continues.

As for the poll, I voted no. Probability's just against it, especially a major.

[f5]

worst case scenario would be a landfall between the mississippi river and grand isle which would take the center of the eye about 5 miles west of downtown NO

[wxmann_91]

worst case scenario would be a landfall between the mississippi river and grand isle which would take the center of the eye about 5 miles west of downtown NO

Actually the eye right over or just to the east of New Orleans would be worst, especially since now the levees are in a weakened condition, and the winds would be from the north, Lake Pontchartrain would essentially empty into New Orleans.

[f5]

worst case scenario would be a landfall between the mississippi river and grand isle which would take the center of the eye about 5 miles west of downtown NO

Actually the eye right over or just to the east of New Orleans would be worst, especially since now the levees are in a weakened condition, and the winds would be from the north, Lake Pontchartrain would essentially empty into New Orleans.

doesn't matter in the northern hemisphere the NE eyewall is always the worst beacuse thats were the strongest winds worst surge is.had Katrina gone over NO .just take a look at the mississippi coast imagine a 30 ft storm surge coming into a city that is already below sea level