Dooms day hurricane Miami...(My thinking)

[Extremeweatherguy]

the scenario is pure science fiction. The NHC would NEVER not issue advisories while a system is impacting land, when there is a well-defined eye, like there would be in a category 3 hurricane. Advisories would begin, even if they were waiting, when a consensus Dvorak reached 2.0 or 2.5

there would be 3 hourly recon scheduled well before as well

Houston will never fare worse than Lauderdale did in Wilma. IT'S 50 MILES INLAND.

The death toll is also extremely unrealistic. There is no way a hurricane in a non storm surge prone region is going to cause as many deaths as did Treblinka

Actually, as a crow flys downtown Houston is only about 40 miles inland...but you also need to consider Galveston bay which runs about 30-40 miles inland. If a hurricane were to go right up Galveston bay (which can be over 90F in the summer), then it may be able to maintain intensity or intensify. Because of Galveston Bay, some places in south Houston would actually see major storm surges during a cat. 5 hurricane as well as Galveston and all other areas of the coast. In 1983 with Hurricane Alicia, which was only a weak Cat. 3 at landfall, downtown Houston saw gusts over 100mph...enough to blow out thousands of windowns in downtown skyscrapers. IF a CAT. 5 were to come right up Galveston bay, then downtown Houston could still see Cat. 5 conditions...THAT would be the worst case scenario as many would not have left town and be surprised when 200mph gusts started ripping through thier neighborhood. I think if that kind of scenario were to play out...the death toll could certainly surpass 5-10K.

[gtalum]

Yes and we all know that "Doomsday forecasters" are always correct.

[Derek Ortt]

even if a hurricane came up Galveston bay, it would still weaken very rapidly, especially a cat 5 (assuming a cat 5 could ever make landfall at galveston, which I highly doubt, maybe Corpus Christi), since 80% of the circulation would be over land

There is no realistic chance, that Houston will ever see anything more than very marginal cat 3 winds. That would still cause severe damage to the city, but the city is not going to be leveled

[Pearl River]

Derek, you wrote this in your statement of effects on Hurricane Katrina on your NWHHC website:

The main reason for the large loss of life for the Gulf Coast was failure to comply with evacuation orders. There were many people not able to have access to transportation for evacuation. Automated transportation is not needed for an evacuation. Those with the ability to walk, should do so if all else fails. The 30 hour lead time for the hurricane warning could have allowed people to walk up to 70 miles, far enough to find shelter from the storm.

A second point than needs to be addressed regarding the failure to evacuate is that a mandatory evacuation means evacuate, with no questions.

Reason one: Actually many people did have transportation to leave the New Orleans area, they chose to drive their vehicles to the Superdome and park them there. Other's did not leave because they wanted to stay behind and protect their property from looters. The school buses are owned by the school system, they could not be taken without permission from the school board.

Reason two: Under Louisiana law, Mandatory Evacution means: If you do not evacuate, then public services such as law, fire, rescue and ems will not be available to assist you until the crisis is over. The police cannot come into your home and forcefully remove you to a shelter.[/b]

[Derek Ortt]

the people should have left the city. Those at the superdome were, iin general, safe. While they had to deal with the wind, the overwhelming majority fared fine.

Did Nagin wait too long to issue an evac? Absolutely

[Pearl River]

Derek wrote

the people should have left the city. Those at the superdome were, iin general, safe. While they had to deal with the wind, the overwhelming majority fared fine.

Did Nagin wait too long to issue an evac? Absolutely

Believe me. You won't get an argument from me on that one. I am just saying, Mandatory Evacuation here doesn't mean what people think it means.
I am not a racist, but I'm sure people will take this the wrong way. A majority of the people stayed because they knew they could take advantage of the situation and unfortunately that is the nature of the beast of many New Orleanians. Looting for food, baby formula or diapers is one thing, but tennis shoes , tv's and guns, they took advantage of it.

[Derek Ortt]

and they came very close to getting a Darwin Award as if the cane would have tracked 30 miles west, the MS surge would have impacted NO (Key West residents also nearly got a Darwin award as a whole 6,000 of the 28,000 decided to evacuate for Wilma)

[JonathanBelles]

whats a darwin award?

[Normandy]

even if a hurricane came up Galveston bay, it would still weaken very rapidly, especially a cat 5 (assuming a cat 5 could ever make landfall at galveston, which I highly doubt, maybe Corpus Christi), since 80% of the circulation would be over land

There is no realistic chance, that Houston will ever see anything more than very marginal cat 3 winds. That would still cause severe damage to the city, but the city is not going to be leveled

Well what if the hurricane has a realy large eye, like say 40 miles in diameter. Once the eye crosses the coast, the eyewall is already only 20 miles away from metro houston. And what if its moving fast, say 20 mph? You do realize that the hurricane would only have to be truly inland 1 hour for the eyewall to reach houston? I dont think a cat5 hurricane would weaken that much over that little amount of time.

[Derek Ortt]

a cat 5 is not going to make it to the north Texas Coast. A 4? Maybe

However, even with only 1 hour over land, that is still about 1 full category of weakening. This yields the marginal 3 worst case scenario, still will devastate the city, just not level it

[Rainband]

Dooms day hurricane Miami...


A tropical distrabances moves off Africa on the 26th of August...The area shows some low pressure, with most of its convection to the south. Because of the SAL/northwestly wind shear. Foreacasters thinking is that chances will be very low for development. In has the system/wave/distrabance moves out into the Eastern Atlantic. Near the Cape verdes the system loses its convection. It becomes a dryed out wave as it moves across the Atlatnic. Kind of like hurricane Dennis of 2005...In which had almost no convection intill the caribbean.

The system is hard to track for 5 days as it moves west-northwestward into the Northern Caribbean/Central Atlantic. On September first of 2006 convection starts forming as the enviroment around the system is becoming much better for development. Forecast models show that a anticyclone should form over the area. In which the Gfs is showing a 30 knot decrease in shear. In so the forecast overall called for shear levels to go from 35 knots to 0 to 5 knots. With a Anticyclone being forecasted on line with Wilma of 2005. But the nhc forecasters say that it is impossible to trust the Gfs at this time...In so they over look the model.

The next day at 4pm est the second of Septemeber Visible/Ir satellite shows a low pressure. With convection forming right over it at minus 80c. The shear maps show that the shear at this time has decreased to 10 knots. With the Atmosphere has become very moist in faverable. Outflow Jets coming out of the north in south. The LLC forms at 23 north/72 west. The system at this time has turned westward or slightly west-northwest. Max mayfield is looking at the system in amazement at this time. In says that a recon is forecasted to look at the system early on the third of September.

At 11pm est the second the system has 2 knot shear over it. With outflow jets shooting all the way into the Eastern Pacific. In the Cdo is 600 miles wide. At this time The cyclone is centered at 24 north/75 west.

The recon gets into the system at 5am est on the third of September. In the cyclone is at 24.8 north/77. Max mayfield said that we wented to wait for the recon to make sure that the system was a tropical cyclone before issueing Advisories. At the time of the recon they found a 115 mph Major hurricane with pressure of 935 millibars. The Nhc races to issue Advisories in put warnings for the Miami area. The system slows down in a clear eye forms just hours after the first recon.

The second recon as the system is just hours away from making landfall on Miami. Finds something that will Amaze every one for the next 100 years. They find as it was centered at 25/79 or just off shore a cat5 hurricane with cloud tops of Wilma. In a eye 25 nmi wide...With a pressure of 875 millibars with 180 mph winds.

At this time the eye wall is making landfall on Miami. The skyscrappers are thrown to the ground half full. In people trying to get out of Miami. This beast of a hurricane will never be forgotten by the few survivers that had to live through hell for 6 hours. As the hurricane moves across Florida into the Gulf. The hurricane weakens from 180 mph to 140 mph...

The hurricane hits the Loop current it rebombs. The back up hurriacne center has tooken over at this time. In no word has been recovered out of the area. But the monster moves westward still...2 days later it bombs into a 200 mph monster over the loop current with 862 millibar pressure. But the hurricane then moves pass 25/90 in of the loop. In which the hurricane weakens.

But the hurricane this time reminds a cat5 of at least 160 mph winds. In makes landfall on Houston metro area on the 6th of September. Forecasters are Amazed more then ever with Katrina,Rita,Wilma. The shock is setting in.


500 billion dollars with the damage was caused. With 400k death toll in Miami alone. Fellowed by 250k for Houston.


2006 will not be forgotten ever!

Somebody is bored. With all due respect. These past two years have had enough real tragedy without thinking up Far fetched hypothetical scenarios.

[terstorm1012]

Skyscrapers falling over?

No offense, but they are better engineered than that. They look flimsy, but they're really not, otherwise the fatigue of constant wind blowing over decades (in the case of NYC) would have weakenend and toppled them, and the older buildings there have seen some gusts from the '38 cane, Gloria, Bob, and Hazel, to name a few.

I'm not an engineer, but I work in an agency that has hundreds of them. I'll send this along to one of them and see if it's even remotely plausible.

You know the Discovery Channel had an abysmal show on "what if the Great Red Spot was on Earth...flattening Miami just like that." This sounds strangely like that.

[terstorm1012]

whats a darwin award?

A way to elimanate oneself from the evolutionary gene pool. Usually reserved for stupid stunts.

[Derek Ortt]

the skys crapers wont tip over unless we see real cat 5 winds, and even then, they may remain standing, but be totally gutted

1938 did not bring cat 3 winds to NYC. It may have brought 1, but likely TS to NYC. Glorida brought cat 1 winds to NOBODY on the ground, only aloft (it may have been a TS at landfall)

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

whats a darwin award?

A way to elimanate oneself from the evolutionary gene pool. Usually reserved for stupid stunts.

A Darwin Award is an award for those who definitely would not have survived to reproduce if we lived in an uncivilized, natural environment. Someone who refuses to evacuate Key West for a Cat3 hurricane without any legitimate reason actually keeping them from evacuating...and is then flabbergasted by the damage and comes up with a sound byte like "we had no idea it could get this bad", referring to a 7-foot surge on a 5-foot island...that person deserves a Darwin Award.

[gtalum]

Actually you have to die in order to win the Darwin award. Not just that, you have to die before reproducing. It's an award for benefitting humankind by eliminating yourself entirely from the gene pool.

[Windtalker1]

Yes and we all know that "Doomsday forecasters" are always correct.

LOL

[JonathanBelles]

o lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This can only work if the nhc holds off about 24 to 30 hours with Advisoris. In if they choose to wait for recon to confirm it like thing. But most here on storm2k would be going crazy(Heads would be exploding) seeing a 600 nmi wide system moving at florida with no Advisorie

[Extremeweatherguy]

a cat 5 is not going to make it to the north Texas Coast. A 4? Maybe

However, even with only 1 hour over land, that is still about 1 full category of weakening. This yields the marginal 3 worst case scenario, still will devastate the city, just not level it

why wouldn't a 5 make it here? never say never...or else you may be surprised when it actually happens. Also...what if the storm was a very fast mover (over 25mph)...if this was the case, it would reach Houston in less than 2 hrs. With a strong (175mph) cat. 5 at landfall...it would probably still be a 4 in downtown Houston...not a marginal 3. I do pray that no strong hurricane ever hits Houston, but there definitely is a "chance". Also, once again about the Cat. 5 thing...I think a 5 could certainly reach us. If the waters were warm enough, and if the shear was low enough, then it could certainly make it. Also, about Galveston bay being too small...that is not always true. I have seen a hurricane maintain or gain strength INLAND!!! I have seen that happen over the warm lake Okeechobee in Florida. Something like that would probably happen with Galveston Bay...especially since the water is usually well over 90F during the summer. With water that warm the storm could easily have enough fuel to either maintain strength or only very slowly diminish.