95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

*sound of gunshots*

[HURAKAN]

It seems computer models are not that crazy, or a least, the NHC is following them:

[HURAKAN]

TWO 11:30 AM:

A large non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central
Atlantic about 1250 miles southwest of the Azores Islands. This
system has some potential to slowly acquire some tropical
characteristics over the next couple of days. Additional
information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

[HURAKAN]

It seems that the NHC is not in a hurry to upgrade this system.

[Forecaster Colby]

It seems that the NHC is not in a hurry to upgrade this system.

Would you be? They're like totally out of overtime hours.

[HURAKAN]

It seems that the NHC is not in a hurry to upgrade this system.

Would you be? They're like totally out of overtime hours.

LOL. I undestand, but the system is displaying some subtropical characteristics. Let see if Delta develops.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 72 hours shows a very deep low pressure moving southward as next image shows.




12z GFS at 114 hours the movement southward continues.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Great graphic as always Sandy.



12z GFS at 156 hours show the low pressure almost at the same place as in 114 hours as the southward movement stops.

[Forecaster Colby]

That organization looks like s ubtropical hurricane...wtf?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 216 hours shows a hurricane according to the pressure isobars.

Now let's see what the other global models have in their 12z run.

[Forecaster Colby]

A HURRICANE at that latitude in NOVEMBER??

[HURAKAN]

A HURRICANE at that latitude in NOVEMBER??

REMEBER NOEL IN 2001.

[cycloneye]

A HURRICANE at that latitude in NOVEMBER??

[Forecaster Colby]

*applies egg to face*

[cycloneye]

745
WHXX04 KWBC 201723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 27.8 44.8 50./13.0
6 28.6 43.5 57./13.9
12 29.1 42.6 57./ 9.6
18 30.9 42.9 352./17.2
24 31.0 42.6 60./ 3.2
30 31.3 41.8 71./ 6.5
36 31.3 41.1 91./ 6.7
42 31.6 40.7 49./ 4.4
48 31.7 40.4 63./ 2.7
54 32.0 40.5 353./ 3.3
60 32.0 40.9 265./ 3.7
66 31.7 41.4 241./ 5.3
72 31.2 41.8 216./ 6.2
78 30.6 42.3 219./ 7.4
84 29.7 42.6 200./ 9.0
90 28.7 43.2 210./11.8
96 27.4 43.7 199./13.4
102 26.0 44.2 201./14.4
108 24.7 44.4 188./13.1
114 23.6 44.5 185./11.2
120 22.5 44.5 184./10.5
126 21.9 44.4 168./ 7.1



12z GFDL.Same as 12z GFS tracking southward.

[HURAKAN]

COULD IT BE?!?!?!?

[Forecaster Colby]

Wow, wtf is that? We have some really bizzare tracks.

[HURAKAN]

1:05 PM EDT TWD:

Farther E...a strengthening 1008 mb low is near 28n44w
moving slowly NE. A nearby upper trough should allow a
continued deepening of the low with upper dynamics/lift already
producing isolated tstms within 90 nm of the trough and more
widely scattered activity from 17n-29n between 44w-50w near an
associated surface trough. This low will have to be watched in
the coming days for a possible transition to a subtropical storm
as upper heights rise in the mid-latitude central Atlc...
blocking any departure of the low for at least the next 3-5 days
and perhaps allowing for upper ridging to form near the system.

LOTS OF DAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LOW.

[cycloneye]

1:05 PM EDT TWD:

Farther E...a strengthening 1008 mb low is near 28n44w
moving slowly NE. A nearby upper trough should allow a
continued deepening of the low with upper dynamics/lift already
producing isolated tstms within 90 nm of the trough and more
widely scattered activity from 17n-29n between 44w-50w near an
associated surface trough. This low will have to be watched in
the coming days for a possible transition to a subtropical storm
as upper heights rise in the mid-latitude central Atlc...
blocking any departure of the low for at least the next 3-5 days
and perhaps allowing for upper ridging to form near the system.

LOTS OF DAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LOW.

Yes this will take days to make the transition to a more tropical or subtropical feature if it does at all.But the best thing about this system is that no landmasses will be affected and will be a system only for the fishes.