Gamma No Threat to FL

mike815 · #21 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:27 am

Yeah i said this morn but probably has to do with the aircraft recon finding a LLC first.

CHRISTY · #22 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:30 am

yep i agree.. this season continues to defy all odds!

DESTRUCTION5 · #23 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:32 am

Why is it the only rational thread to this topic is coming from Brent? People there is no way this storm system effects SFL besides for some high clouds...IF it develops it will pass at least 100 Miles south of the keys off to the ENE...

mike815 · #24 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:33 am

Yes i would tend to agree but there a chance it could have an impact.

CHRISTY · #25 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:37 am

thats yet to be seen if this will miss florida!besides this season i think anything is possible as long it stays over those warm waters.

DESTRUCTION5 · #26 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:40 am

CHRISTY wrote:thats yet to be seen if this will miss florida!besides this season i think anything is possible as long it stays over those warm waters.

LOL..Warm waters have nothing to do with a Fl hit...Although it does reduce Shrinkage...

mike815 · #27 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:42 am

#28 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:46 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:thats yet to be seen if this will miss florida!besides this season i think anything is possible as long it stays over those warm waters.

LOL..Warm waters have nothing to do with a Fl hit...Although it does reduce Shrinkage...

#29 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:48 am

What the BAMs don't see is a deepening upper level low/trof digging into the southeast U.S. on Sunday. Althought he front may not be blasting cold air all the way down to the Keys (yet), upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the front will be growing increasingly stronger across the NW Caribbean over the weekend. Such strong shear would rip any tropical system apart and/or allow for rapid transformation to extratropical low. Of course, such rapid extratropical transition wouldn't preclude the possibility that the southern Peninsula of Florida couldn't get a little rain out of the event along the leading edge of the front on Sunday. But as for a hurricane in south Florida - highly unlikely.

Take a look at this 250mb (about 34,000 ft) wind prog for Sunday evening. Note the 40-60 kt SW winds across teh NW Caribbean Sea, getting stronger across Florida? That upper low over NW Louisiana is digging SE toward Florida, pushing the southwesterly jet across the state. This is the reason that the dynamic models (not the BAMs) are turning it sharply NE across central Cuba and the Bahamas rather than over south Florida.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_250_072m.gif">

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:00 am

NHC says in the near term conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical developement.

#31 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:12 am

CHRISTY wrote:NHC says in the near term conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical developement.

And if this thing stays in the NW Carib...it might have a chance...but any nward drift towards the GoM will lead it into shear that will rip it apart...and dry air that will make it go *poof*.

Bottom line is this is not a hurricane treat of any kind to south Florida.

#32 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:14 am

GFDL NOW PICKING UP ON A FLORIDA TRACK TOO

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:22 am

yes that GFDL almost made me choke on my breakfast!! i think this is becoming more of florida threat by the hour..the NHC usually basis there tracks on the GFDL right?

mike815 · #34 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:23 am

I CANT BELEVE IT GOOD THING I WASNT EATING ANYTHING all i can say is WOW!

DESTRUCTION5 · #35 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:24 am

Ok folks lets let it get classified 1st....

#36 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:24 am

I doubt the GFDL output VERY seriously...there is 90kts of wind in the upper levels forecast by both the NAM and the GFS at that location in 84 hours. The convergent quad of the jet will also be moving into the area at that time

That 84 hour GFDL intensity forecast will not verify. Bet on it. Take it to the bank.

DESTRUCTION5 · #37 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:25 am

Air Force Met wrote:I doubt the GFDL output VERY seriously...there is 90kts of wind in the upper levels forecast by both the NAM and the GFS at that location in 84 hours. The convergent quad of the jet will also be moving into the area at that time

That 84 hour GFDL intensity forecast will not verify. Bet on it. Take it to the bank.

Agree Bet on it not being in that position either...

#38 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:26 am

mike815 wrote:I CANT BELEVE IT GOOD THING I WASNT EATING ANYTHING all i can say is WOW!

All I can say is "Wrong"

The GFDL is out to lunch. Take a look at the shear. 90 kts over s. florida. Convergent quad of the jet. Dry air.

Hmmm....kinda hard to get a cat 1 in hose conditions :wink:

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:27 am

LET'S GET OUR RAINCOATS READY!!!!!

#40 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:27 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I doubt the GFDL output VERY seriously...there is 90kts of wind in the upper levels forecast by both the NAM and the GFS at that location in 84 hours. The convergent quad of the jet will also be moving into the area at that time

That 84 hour GFDL intensity forecast will not verify. Bet on it. Take it to the bank.

Agree Bet on it not being in that position either...

True. There is no way a that storm track verifies with those upper levels winds.

Gamma No Threat to FL

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