Hurricane Adaline Hypothetical Texas Scenario

[hicksta]

I belive it man, texas most storms are homebrew in the GOM. If a TS gets it act togther and explodes like wilma or rita. Wed have a cat 3-4 on our hands with no time to leave

[jasons2k]

Alicia '83 and the Indianola storms aren't too far off from this scenario; it is possible again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianola_ ... ne_of_1886

"It hit the Dominican Republic as a Category 2 hurricane, weakened a bit, and hit southeastern Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, causing 28 deaths. The storm weakened to a tropical storm, but when it reached the favorable Gulf of Mexico waters on the 18th, it again strengthened. As the hurricane approached the coast of Texas, it rapidly intensified to a 155 mph (250 km/h) hurricane. On the 19th, winds increased in Indianola, and on the 20th it made landfall as a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane. Pressure at landfall is estimated to be 925 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest hurricane known to have hit the United States. It obliterated the town that was only just recovering from a powerful 1875 hurricane on the same location." - Wiki

[Deb321]

I also respect Mike's opinions and forecasts. He may be a young man from Ohio, but he is a very intelligent young man with a great career ahead of him. If you don't like his post you may choose to ignore them. There is no need to be nasty.

[southerngale]

There's nothing wrong with the original, hypothetical post. A cat 4 making landfall in the GOM isn't exactly a "fantasy" and for those who don't realize it, it shows how fast a hurricane can intensify and the importance of taking every hurricane serious. Will it happen just like that? Not likely, but I don't think he thinks it will either. I'm sure most people get the point.


This is the Talkin' Tropics forum. If you don't like a post, pass it up instead of replying. Most importantly, keep the insults to yourself.

[Anonymous]

Alicia '83 and the Indianola storms aren't too far off from this scenario; it is possible again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianola_ ... ne_of_1886

"It hit the Dominican Republic as a Category 2 hurricane, weakened a bit, and hit southeastern Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, causing 28 deaths. The storm weakened to a tropical storm, but when it reached the favorable Gulf of Mexico waters on the 18th, it again strengthened. As the hurricane approached the coast of Texas, it rapidly intensified to a 155 mph (250 km/h) hurricane. On the 19th, winds increased in Indianola, and on the 20th it made landfall as a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane. Pressure at landfall is estimated to be 925 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest hurricane known to have hit the United States. It obliterated the town that was only just recovering from a powerful 1875 hurricane on the same location." - Wiki

Im talking a storm right near the coast, like Hurricane Claudette, that blows into a Cat 4 when it was expected to be only a Cat 1.

[Rainband]

There's nothing wrong with the original, hypothetical post. A cat 4 making landfall in the GOM isn't exactly a "fantasy" and for those who don't realize it, it shows how fast a hurricane can intensify and the importance of taking every hurricane serious. Will it happen just like that? Not likely, but I don't think he thinks it will either. I'm sure most people get the point.


This is the Talkin' Tropics forum. If you don't like a post, pass it up instead of replying. Most importantly, keep the insults to yourself.

I agree.

[jasons2k]

Alicia '83 and the Indianola storms aren't too far off from this scenario; it is possible again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianola_ ... ne_of_1886

"It hit the Dominican Republic as a Category 2 hurricane, weakened a bit, and hit southeastern Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, causing 28 deaths. The storm weakened to a tropical storm, but when it reached the favorable Gulf of Mexico waters on the 18th, it again strengthened. As the hurricane approached the coast of Texas, it rapidly intensified to a 155 mph (250 km/h) hurricane. On the 19th, winds increased in Indianola, and on the 20th it made landfall as a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane. Pressure at landfall is estimated to be 925 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest hurricane known to have hit the United States. It obliterated the town that was only just recovering from a powerful 1875 hurricane on the same location." - Wiki

Im talking a storm right near the coast, like Hurricane Claudette, that blows into a Cat 4 when it was expected to be only a Cat 1.

I know, I gotcha. I was just drawing a similarity with the rapid intensification:

"The storm weakened to a tropical storm, but when it reached the favorable Gulf of Mexico waters on the 18th, it again strengthened. As the hurricane approached the coast of Texas, it rapidly intensified to a 155 mph (250 km/h) hurricane. On the 19th, winds increased in Indianola, and on the 20th it made landfall as a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane. Pressure at landfall is estimated to be 925 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest hurricane known to have hit the United States."

I think your scenario is very possible.

[bigmike]

[quote="skysummit"][quote="sma10"]ENOUGH with the worst case scenario, hypothetical landfalls.

I'll take his view over any pro met any day of the year...

I'm sure Mike has a great future as a forecaster if that what he chooses to do but I would seriously take the official word of the national hurricance center over a casual amauter. This is not meant as a Mike Naso bash just trust the guys with the experience is my point. And hopefully Mike will be one of those guys one day.