NAPLES/FORT MYERS RESIDENTS GET OUT NOW!!!!

[CajunMama]

Kevin, while I understand your concern for yourself and fellow residents, you do not need to yell at your fellow members. Many here are aware of what the storm surge possiblity is and those who don't would probably start panicking after reading what you wrote. I would like to suggest that you edit your post to upper and lower case and not in bold.

You may be totally correct about the surge but you are creating panic where panic is not needed. Preparations and awareness are what is needed.

[ixocean]

ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR
APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL.

The NHC forecast posted here does not verify the graphic...why? Just curious what data was plugged into the sim that created the graphic, if this is the official data plan.

[bahamaswx]

This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

It's a bad situation, but the original post was poorly thought out.

LOL

Editted to make you happy, and to better get my point across.

[Brent]

This is rediculous.

You post in all capitals, enlarge the font, throw in exclamation marks wherever possible, and then claim that "you're not trying to cause panic"?

LOL

Editted to make you happy, and to better get my point across.

I wasn't laughing at you... I was laughing at what you said.

[Hfcomms]

...and you don't have "plenty" of time to get out. Have we not learned the lessons of gridlock for Katrina and Rita?? This cane is going to start to take off like a scalded rabbit in the next 12 to 16 hours or so. The sheeple always look at their neighbors to see what they are doing so the neighbors stand around a look at each other while destruction is boring down on them.

When everyone wakes up tommorrow morning and they look at all this and with all the hemming and hawing around that will all try to leave at the same time and this cane is going to start to fly. At least the one bright spot is it will move so fast that at least the flooding from the rain event won't be quite so bad but the coastal flooding could cause a N.O. event all over again. Learn from history and don't repeat it.

[Ixolib]

While the textual graphics may appear a little extreme, I agree that anyone on the coast, or even quite a bit inland, REALLY needs to heed the advisories of surge and waves - in this storm or any other. In fact, if the surge is predicted to be 11-16 feet, with 20 feet locally, assume it's going to be 20 feet!! Do not key in on the lower numbers. And if the waves are projected to be 20-35 feet, same rule applies.

Ignore the lower number and use the highest number as your indicator for preparation! I did the opposite in Katrina and lived to seriously regret it!!

And please use your "supposed" flood maps with caution. THEY MAY NOT BE ACCURATE as the history used to create them may not offer the best example for any given storm.

Kevin's words are wise = l-e-a-v-e... Wind you can easily prepare for. Surge you cannot.

[curtadams]

Given Wilma's large size, expected fast motion, and possible rapid intensification, this is another case where a significant *possibility* of surprisingly high surge must be prepared for. You can't take the NHC's 10-15 feet as gospel, because there is no gospel on this.

[shawn67]

Kevin, while I understand your concern for yourself and fellow residents, you do not need to yell at your fellow members. Many here are aware of what the storm surge possiblity is and those who don't would probably start panicking after reading what you wrote. I would like to suggest that you edit your post to upper and lower case and not in bold.

You may be totally correct about the surge but you are creating panic where panic is not needed. Preparations and awareness are what is needed.

Considering the laconic response in regards to this hurricane from resident of Ft. Myers and Naples I'd say Kevin's response is dead on. But Im not a moderator.

Shawn

[Praxus]

Is that really possible we need a met before I call 911 for KevinCho.

However its true that NHC says the surge will be greater than typical
for its category. So if its forecast in as a cat 2 and you live in a cat 3
surge evac zone, I'd get the heck out of dodge.

[Sanibel]

The computation that created that wave potential doesn't recognize depth and treats everything as if it were a straight formula at sea with windspeed and pressure. That's why they call it "potential".

The Florida shelf off west Florida is as shallow as 150 feet 50-80 miles offshore. The near-shore waters are around 50 feet 20 miles offshore. This bottom causes the waves to spread out and foam and wrecks their peak and trough periods.

It will cause huge crashers, but they will come in as waves of foam surges.

I just went to the beach a few minutes ago. The waves have actually come down a touch since this afternoon. You could see the lights of Naples through the mild haze. There was even a boat out there...

[Ixolib]

...At least the one bright spot is it will move so fast that at least the flooding from the rain event won't be quite so bad but the coastal flooding could cause a N.O. event all over again. Learn from history and don't repeat it.

Well, the "New Orleans event" was caused by broken levees that allowed a city below sea level to flood, or "even out" with the surrounding waters of the lake and canals. If the Wilma scenario pans out, the event would be more closely associated with (but not equal to) the coastal impact in Mississippi, not N.O.

[mtm4319]

...and there's already a topic about this graphic.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77437

[curtadams]

However its true that NHC says the surge will be greater than typical
for its category. So if its forecast in as a cat 2 and you live in a cat 3
surge evac zone, I'd get the heck out of dodge.

Since you should prepare for a category 1 greater than forecast, for safety, you should evac if in a Cat *4* area.

[Ixolib]

However its true that NHC says the surge will be greater than typical
for its category. So if its forecast in as a cat 2 and you live in a cat 3
surge evac zone, I'd get the heck out of dodge.

Since you should prepare for a category 1 greater than forecast, for safety, you should evac if in a Cat *4* area.

Can somebody post the **map** that shows these supposed cat 1,2,3,4,5 evacuation areas in southern FL? We don't have such a thing here in coastal MS, and I'm wondering what they look like.

My fear is that they are most probably "under" done, and possibly may lead to confusion for the "tropically uneducated". This is especially significant for an approaching storm that was once a cat 3, 4, or 5 while still 200 miles at sea, but then made landfall as only a cat 1. It will STILL bring with it the surge of a much more intense storm. Hence, this is where the confusion will present itself for the residents...

[Stratosphere747]

However its true that NHC says the surge will be greater than typical
for its category. So if its forecast in as a cat 2 and you live in a cat 3
surge evac zone, I'd get the heck out of dodge.

Since you should prepare for a category 1 greater than forecast, for safety, you should evac if in a Cat *4* area.

Can somebody post the **map** that shows these supposed cat 1,2,3,4,5 evacuation areas in southern FL? We don't have such a thing here in coastal MS, and I'm wondering what they look like.

My fear is that they are most probably "under" done, and possibly may lead to confusion for the "tropically uneducated". This is especially significant for an approaching storm that was once a cat 3, 4, or 5 while still 200 miles at sea, but then made landfall as only a cat 1. It will STILL bring with it the surge of a much more intense storm. Hence, this is where the confusion will present itself for the residents...

Ixloib....

Just for reference. Here is one for Brazoria,Galveston and Harris county. Actually it went well for being the first year that officials could call for voluntary evacs. It was only those that were NOT in the zones which created so many of the traffic problems.

http://www.hcoem.org/Hurricane_Evacuation_Map_8x11a.pdf

I would have to think that Florida is better prepared than we were for something such as this.

Scott

[tallywx]

The computation that created that wave potential doesn't recognize depth and treats everything as if it were a straight formula at sea with windspeed and pressure. That's why they call it "potential".

The Florida shelf off west Florida is as shallow as 150 feet 50-80 miles offshore. The near-shore waters are around 50 feet 20 miles offshore. This bottom causes the waves to spread out and foam and wrecks their peak and trough periods.

It will cause huge crashers, but they will come in as waves of foam surges.

I just went to the beach a few minutes ago. The waves have actually come down a touch since this afternoon. You could see the lights of Naples through the mild haze. There was even a boat out there...

You plan to ride it out this time, Sanibel? I remember after Charley you had mentioned perhaps having stayed during that one instead of leaving...

[Sanibel]

I would like to, but it would involve burning a Toyota for the thrill if the surge materialized. Apparently this will have surge on the west side too.

We were planning on staying for anything Marco south. But that surge map convinced me not to.


The campground owner was interviewed on CNN. He said he is staying because he is responsible for the animals in his small zoo.

Living on Sanibel means never experiencing hurricanes directly...

[cape_escape]

Sanibel, what's your expectations for Cape Coral, so far as surge goes with Wilma?

[tronbunny]

Ixolib,
Page 1 of this thread has the Wunderground surge map for Naples.

Hfcomm, the population of that area (on the map) is not that large, and they surely can go 10-20 miles within a 10 hour period, as there is more than one road, and enough shelter just outside of the serious threat zones..
They do not have to evacuate to the hills to be safe.
This is going to be short event, to start, and the surge will recede quicker than any flood waters in N.O.

[Hfcomms]

We're not just talking about the initial destruction from a storm surge here. How long did it take to get people help after Katrina and Rita?? Sometimes days or even longer. We saw how emasculated Fema really is in disaster response. After all disaster response is only an add on to the fema mission. The lions share of the money go's into COG (continunity of government) All the underground bases, bunkers ect....and even the U.S. government reaches a point where it runs out of resources. To say that we have "been drained" by this season doesn't do it justice.

You want to get the heck out of areas that are going to be effected and you have to be able to provide for yourself and your familes and not depend on the government to take care of you. Those lessons should have been learned by previous examples this season. These storms are not playing by the rules lately and those that are assuming that it won't be very bad or that Wilma either won't intensify or if she does she will run out of steam before landfall are literally gambling with their lives. There are many that rolled the dice and lost in some of these other storms this year. Don't let it happen to you.