looks like another possible 'Perfect Storm' situation setting up for New England
I have a feeling,its going to be a very looooong few days for us up here early next week
0Z Guidance...A Big Mess
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nequad wrote:UKMET is still out to sea. Gator...actually the GFDL is a little slower than the previous run...but the track is similar. Also...at the end of the run the model turns Wilma more to the north and very fast...indicating a simialr solution to the NGP...just a little slower, but in the end they get to the same place.
HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 84.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.10.2005 17.9N 84.0W INTENSE
12UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 85.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2005 19.7N 85.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2005 20.6N 86.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2005 21.8N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.10.2005 22.1N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2005 23.1N 85.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2005 24.5N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2005 26.8N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2005 30.7N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 25.10.2005 37.5N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.10.2005 43.7N 56.0W EXTRA-TROPICAL
Thats a south shift for the UKMET at 00z maybe the GFs is on to something, What is "moderate", A weak cane?!
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FXUS62 KTBW 200705
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL CHANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...FORECAST OF WILMA IS STILL MUCH LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT PERHAPS THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH IS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WILMA. SEEMS
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN DELAYING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WILMA...AND
PERHAPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE TOO SOON. IN
ANY EVENT...00Z GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIF CHANGE THIS RUN...NOW MOVING
WILMA HALF WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STALLING IT
THERE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BY THEN...THE LONG WAVE TROF THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP WILMA EAST AND NORTH WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN US...WHICH WOULD THUS KEEP WILMA ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ENE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS...WHICH
GENERALLY SHOW WILMA'S TRACK STAYING FARTHER SOUTH ONCE IT DOES TAKE
THAT RIGHT TURN AND START MOVING ENE. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IF THIS
IS INDEED A TREND THAT FUTURE RUNS STICK TO...THAT WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE'VE SEEN BIG MODEL CHANGES (ESP ON THE 00Z CYCLES)...AND AS SUCH I
WOULDN'T LET THE GUARD DOWN FOR OUR AREA...ESP GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE MID/UPR PATTERN THAT IS TAKING SHAPE.
AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
POINTED OUT THAT WE'RE "NOT OUT OF THE WOODS" JUST YET WITH WILMA.
ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA. &&
.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON TPC'S FORECAST POSITIONS OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND AS SUCH...
DEPICTS MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY THAN WHAT THE GFS
WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE. IF THE TPC FORECAST SLOWS THE APPROACH OF
WILMA IN LATER FORECASTS...WE WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. SO FOR NOW...LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH JUST CHANCE NORTH AS WILMA TRACKS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CENTRAL...WITH THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH SHUTTING DOWN AS
COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
&&
.
.
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL CHANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...FORECAST OF WILMA IS STILL MUCH LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT PERHAPS THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH IS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WILMA. SEEMS
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN DELAYING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WILMA...AND
PERHAPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE TOO SOON. IN
ANY EVENT...00Z GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIF CHANGE THIS RUN...NOW MOVING
WILMA HALF WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STALLING IT
THERE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BY THEN...THE LONG WAVE TROF THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP WILMA EAST AND NORTH WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN US...WHICH WOULD THUS KEEP WILMA ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ENE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS...WHICH
GENERALLY SHOW WILMA'S TRACK STAYING FARTHER SOUTH ONCE IT DOES TAKE
THAT RIGHT TURN AND START MOVING ENE. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IF THIS
IS INDEED A TREND THAT FUTURE RUNS STICK TO...THAT WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE'VE SEEN BIG MODEL CHANGES (ESP ON THE 00Z CYCLES)...AND AS SUCH I
WOULDN'T LET THE GUARD DOWN FOR OUR AREA...ESP GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE MID/UPR PATTERN THAT IS TAKING SHAPE.
AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
POINTED OUT THAT WE'RE "NOT OUT OF THE WOODS" JUST YET WITH WILMA.
ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA. &&
.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON TPC'S FORECAST POSITIONS OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND AS SUCH...
DEPICTS MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY THAN WHAT THE GFS
WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE. IF THE TPC FORECAST SLOWS THE APPROACH OF
WILMA IN LATER FORECASTS...WE WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. SO FOR NOW...LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH JUST CHANCE NORTH AS WILMA TRACKS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CENTRAL...WITH THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH SHUTTING DOWN AS
COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
&&
.
.
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON
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