Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[vaffie]

For what it's worth, this morning's Dallas and Little Rock Forecast discussions are talking about a slower front than had been predicted. A slower front will mean a slower and potentially weaker high moving south to block and push Stan southwest. This will mean a possible increase in latitude, and so the next few model runs may start shifting north slowly, aside from the fact that it's moving 290 at last check compared to 285. Anyway, I have no idea. We'll see.
For example:
From Little Rock:THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE ABOUT WEDNESDAY AS A
TROF SHARPENS IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IS SLOWING THE
FRONT A LITTLE AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADJUSTED POP AND WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

Cold front is not suppose to be down this way until Thursday now per NWS

Where did you see that, Starburst?

[Starburst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...T.S. STAN IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS TIME OVER OLD MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. OVER SOUTH TEXAS...MOISTURE VALUES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
THEY WERE EARLIER BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON. HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY
MASSAGED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION
OF STAN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN FOR THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY MORNING BASED
ON THE SLOWER FRONT AND MOISTURE. AFTER THAT...THINGS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT HIGHER MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY. BEFORE
THAT...MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 EAST TO
THE LOWER 90S WEST. AFTER ALL THESE ABOVE NORMAL AND RECORD HIGH
VALUES IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...IT WILL BE NICE TO HAVE OUR FIRST
COOL-DOWN OF THE SEASON.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005

ON A BETTER NOTE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO GET OUR
FIRST CP AIRMASS OF THE SEASON!!! ECMWF/GFS PROG THE FRONTS ARRIVAL
BE IT WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION THURSDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. THE COOLER THICKNESSES SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 78-83 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 58-64
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

[HurricaneGirl]

HOLY CRAP!!!! It has a name!!

[JTD]

Jason the thread will remain open even if it weakens to a depression as it crosses the Yucatan because it will be a storm again once it hits the water.

For the updated information simply go to the last two pages of this thread and you will see the latest.For example if this thread is at page 34 you go to pages 33 and 34 to see the latest and doing it that way you dont have to go thru all the pages from page one.

Luis, OK. sounds good

[garo678]

Hi, here again, reporting weather conditions in Merida Downtown...

Temp 30 C
PRESS 1004mB
Relative Hum. 82%
gusts 35/40 kmh N NE

conditions progressively deteriorating...

thanks for not to close de thread yet....

I`ll post again in my break time
saludos!

[vaffie]

The latest GFDL run has changed. Originally it had Stan race through Mexico to the Pacific and forming into a Category 4 hurricane threatening the Baja. Now it speeds up and then slows down essentially to a halt at or just at the Mexican coast where it has it die out at 54 hours--this may have to do with how the GFDL has trouble tracking storms that start out too weak. It will be interesting to see how the other models change in the next 18Z run coming out shortly.


NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM STAN 20L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.7 87.9 290./ 5.0
6 20.1 88.7 296./ 9.1
12 20.3 90.1 278./13.1
18 20.6 91.3 285./11.8
24 20.9 92.6 284./12.3
30 20.9 93.7 270./10.1
36 20.5 94.8 251./11.3
42 20.3 95.8 255./ 9.3
48 20.3 96.5 272./ 6.8
54 20.2 96.7 257./ 2.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Brent]

Still a storm... may not weaken to a depression before re-emerging.

[milankovitch]

I don't know, CLIPER might have something there . . .

Yeah, the dynamical models sure are deviating from climo. I think it's wise to pay attention to the CLIP when the deviation is so large. If I recall with Rita the dynamical models were at first taking it into Brownsville but the CLIP was saying much farther east. I think there's a small chance this could recurve east as the high weakens, as mentioned on Dr. Master's blog.

[skysummit]

It does seem to be moving a little more NW now. Maybe it'll get back over water sooner than expected.

[cycloneye]

It does seem to be moving a little more NW now. Maybe it'll get back over water sooner than expected.

And a bit more faster too.

[skysummit]

It does seem to be moving a little more NW now. Maybe it'll get back over water sooner than expected.

And a bit more faster too.

Yes it does.

[hicksta]

It does seem to be moving a little more NW now. Maybe it'll get back over water sooner than expected.

NO ITS GOING SOUTH INTO MEXICO. =]

[hicksta]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

[skysummit]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Look at the satellite. Find the location where the clouds are rotating around. LOL It does look like crap, but it does also seem to be moving more NW and a little faster though.

[WeatherEmperor]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Cause they have magic crystal balls they can look into that we just dont have

<RICKY>

[Swimdude]

At least it formed into Stan. We weren't so lucky with TD19, unfortunately... That means 4 more named storms to break the record...

[WeatherEmperor]

At least it formed into Stan. We weren't so lucky with TD19, unfortunately... That means 4 more named storms to break the record...

I wonder if we are gonna be able to really get 4 more named storms. I think we are gonna be very very close at the end of season. Gotta hope for those late season Nov/Dec storms to pop up out of nowhere just to do it I guess.

<RICKY>

[KatDaddy]

From Jeff Masters WeatherUnderground BLog:

Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is holding together as it moves slowly across the Yucatan Peninsula. Stan came ashore this morning as a 45-mph tropical storm just south of Cozumel Island, the same place Hurricane Emily hit earlier this season. Stan looks pretty good for a storm whose circulation is over land--some impressive spiral bands lie to the east over the Caribbean, and the upper level ouflow is good on all sides except the west. The wind shear is a low 5 knots over the storm.

Stan will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday, and will have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf as it tracks westward towards the northeast coast of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and Stan could be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. It is not certain Stan will make it ashore on Tuesday, as the ridge that is driving Stan westward is forecast to weaken. Stan may stall, loop back, or even turn northwards and threaten the U.S. later in the week. Complicating the long range forecast is the fact that most of the computer models expect a second tropical storm to form in the region by Wednesday or Thursday. The formation location varies depending upon which model one looks at, but ranges from Key West to Cedar Key to west of Jamaica to the southern Bahama Islands, or possibly the Carolina coast.

[hicksta]

At least it formed into Stan. We weren't so lucky with TD19, unfortunately... That means 4 more named storms to break the record...

I wonder if we are gonna be able to really get 4 more named storms. I think we are gonna be very very close at the end of season. Gotta hope for those late season Nov/Dec storms to pop up out of nowhere just to do it I guess.

<RICKY>

I seriously think we will break the record. 05 will be a season to remember and a season of sadness for the MGC and New orleans

[skysummit]

From Jeff Masters WeatherUnderground BLog:

Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is holding together as it moves slowly across the Yucatan Peninsula. Stan came ashore this morning as a 45-mph tropical storm just south of Cozumel Island, the same place Hurricane Emily hit earlier this season. Stan looks pretty good for a storm whose circulation is over land--some impressive spiral bands lie to the east over the Caribbean, and the upper level ouflow is good on all sides except the west. The wind shear is a low 5 knots over the storm.

Stan will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday, and will have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf as it tracks westward towards the northeast coast of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and Stan could be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. It is not certain Stan will make it ashore on Tuesday, as the ridge that is driving Stan westward is forecast to weaken. Stan may stall, loop back, or even turn northwards and threaten the U.S. later in the week. Complicating the long range forecast is the fact that most of the computer models expect a second tropical storm to form in the region by Wednesday or Thursday. The formation location varies depending upon which model one looks at, but ranges from Key West to Cedar Key to west of Jamaica to the southern Bahama Islands, or possibly the Carolina coast.

Well, at least he mentions it.