New Model runs..More AGREEMENT!
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Hurrilurker
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What is the UKMET is right? I think Iceland is in big trouble!! Evac Reykjavik NOW! Seriously thought, that is scary, very rarely ever see models that tightly clustered, especially for a turn like that.
Last edited by Hurrilurker on Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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According to that harmonic convergence between 00/06z models
now is the crucial time for SE LA and SW MS. If they have the hook
north sniffed out properly, it won't be long before the climb begins. If not, then either the hook will be sharper and possibly with a more
eastern component or Katrina is coming in farther west than those
plots would indicate. Of note, the CMC 00z as per FSU is the current
right oultier (not plotted on the netwaves plots).
The plot thickens.
Steve
now is the crucial time for SE LA and SW MS. If they have the hook
north sniffed out properly, it won't be long before the climb begins. If not, then either the hook will be sharper and possibly with a more
eastern component or Katrina is coming in farther west than those
plots would indicate. Of note, the CMC 00z as per FSU is the current
right oultier (not plotted on the netwaves plots).
The plot thickens.
Steve
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SouthFloridawx
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SouthFloridawx
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SouthFloridawx
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Stormcenter
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also remember the models trend to like to think the ridge is weaker then it is. So it could go west to.
Matt I'm talking about the interaction between an approaching trough and a Hurricane. The NE turn always seems to happen just before the models indicate. Therefore, I'm saying i think the models maybe off a little (only a few miles) to the west. Meaning I think it's going in few miles East of the concenses.
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cajunwxman
- Tropical Wave
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mobilebay wrote:Matt I'm talking about the interaction between an approaching trough and a Hurricane. The NE turn always seems to happen just before the models indicate. Therefore, I'm saying i think the models maybe off a little (only a few miles) to the west. Meaning I think it's going in few miles East of the concenses.
I was thinking the same thing.
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It may or may not. Based on WV, there appears to be a shortwave blowing by N AL & N GA north of the eastern side of the high pulling west. The southwesterly flow is on the front side of the high near the TX/NM border. The Plains trof is appearing to be somewhat positively tilted with its current nose near the Missouri/Iowa border. What influence, if any, it has should show up tomorrow. Based on the orientation of its axis, it looks like a lifter rather than a digger, carver or diver and is probably somewhat transient with the main trof to follow in behind Katrina's move across the southeastern US. As always, I could be wrong.
clicky & animate
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
clicky & animate
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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stormspotter
- Tropical Depression
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Steve wrote:It may or may not. Based on WV, there appears to be a shortwave blowing by N AL & N GA north of the eastern side of the high pulling west. The southwesterly flow is on the front side of the high near the TX/NM border. The Plains trof is appearing to be somewhat positively tilted with its current nose near the Missouri/Iowa border. What influence, if any, it has should show up tomorrow. Based on the orientation of its axis, it looks like a lifter rather than a digger, carver or diver and is probably somewhat transient with the main trof to follow in behind Katrina's move across the southeastern US. As always, I could be wrong.
clicky & animate
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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Ixolib wrote:Just woke up - what's the concensus on the models now. Has the landfall shifted even more west? Is N.O./MS Coast looking better now? Sorry for all the questions - can barely think yet....
I went to sleep around 7 and just woke up now... I'm catching up by going backwards from page 3, so I don't know if your question has been answered, but the 12z models look more east:
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To me, it appears a couple of those models have Katrina hitting the boot tip of LA and then being kind of deflected northeastward. I know a direct hit on New Orleans is very possible (and definitely a worse case scenario), but I have to say as an Alabamian I worried about the possibility of that northeast deflection and the degree to which it might occur. No question, the models are tight.
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krysof
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