soonertwister wrote:I really think that when the 11 pm full comes out tonight that the official track will be right through NOLA or very close. Looking at the western shift of the models, it would be foolish for NHC to take a flyer with an outlier track on this storm, especially if it ending up going through NOLA, a place that needs all the warning time they can get.
So I'm predicting with significantly high probability that in about 2-1/2 hours NOLA will be right in the middle of the official track forecast.
while I agree with your logic...History of the NHC forecasting shows that they make very small conservative adjustments of the track...Notice how they have always been to the east of the model consensus today? They will nudge it over a little more, but I predict it won't be that far yet...Oh well I guess we'll see in about 20 minutes won't we?
