MODELS hitting Florida Peninsula Twice? NHC too far west???

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Rainband

#21 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:30 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Wait! So who here think its going to come back and hit florida west coast? Tampa may feel strong effects now possibly? Think NHC track will change?

Matt
No idea. Just watching and waiting.
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skysummit
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#22 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:35 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Wait! So who here think its going to come back and hit florida west coast? Tampa may feel strong effects now possibly? Think NHC track will change?

Matt


Definately....it'll change at least 10 more times!
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#23 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:52 pm

None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.
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#24 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:54 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.


That is why I put my trust in the professionally trained meteorologists at the NHC.

<RICKY>
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#25 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:03 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:None of the models have it initialized right...

UKMET, GFDL - Too far south and east

BAM models, A98E, LBAR - Too far north and west.

So NHC looks about right. Remember, even if a model is initialized a hundred miles off, that can make a world a difference in five days.


Initazlizations were very near or on top of NHC's positions.

NHC:

AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 76.5W (1)

Initialization of 12 Z GFDL (2)

0 24.5 76.7 320./ 7.0

UKMET initialization (3)

12UTC 24.08.2005 24.5N 76.6W WEAK

18Z position given by NHC (4)

25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST

18Z BAM, NHC98, LBAR initialzations (5)

25.2N 77.0W


(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1433.shtml

(2)
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05082417

(3)
http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclo ... wtnt80.txt

(4) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1755.shtml

(5) http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05082418
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#26 Postby Steve H. » Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:31 pm

This system is fairly weak, and the tops are warming. Maybe just a gusty rainstorm at landfall.
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