Oh well now the HPC chimes in on ex-TD10 remnants

[hurricanefreak1988]

If it regenerated, would it be TD 10 or TD 12?

That's what I keep wondering. Can somebody clear this up?

[x-y-no]

If it regenerated, would it be TD 10 or TD 12?

That's what I keep wondering. Can somebody clear this up?

At this point it would be TD12, because the circulation was completely gone for a period of time. In fact, this disturbance may in some way be related to TD10, but the wave axis of the former TD10 actually moved well west of where this disturbance is before dissipating entirely.

[hurricanefreak1988]

That's what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up, though. Looks like my hopes of having every depression become a named storm are gone.

[WeatherEmperor]

That's what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up, though. Looks like my hopes of having every depression become a named storm are gone.

I was counting on that too. Oh well there is always next season.

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

That's what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up, though. Looks like my hopes of having every depression become a named storm are gone.

I was counting on that too. Oh well there is always next season.

<RICKY>

Some people (including me) will enjoy a good heaping helping of crow.

[WeatherEmperor]

That's what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up, though. Looks like my hopes of having every depression become a named storm are gone.

I was counting on that too. Oh well there is always next season.

<RICKY>

Some people (including me) will enjoy a good heaping helping of crow.

LOL. I agree. Im man enough to admit that I deserve a very very big serving of crow.

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

all the HPC says is that a tropical system may affect florida that doesn't mean squat.All it means is that a tropical system which could just be a wave is expected to affect the florida area.

Alot of specualtion is being put into the mouth of some of the professionals wording and thats always a bit annoying.Clearly the NHC says that any development would be slow to occur if it develops at all.

[Rainband]

all the HPC says is that a tropical system may affect florida that doesn't mean squat.All it means is that a tropical system which could just be a wave is expected to affect the florida area.

Alot of specualtion is being put into the mouth of some of the professionals wording and thats always a bit annoying.Clearly the NHC says that any development would be slow to occur if it develops at all.

I will go with the officials. thanks

[shaggy]

what are the officials saying at the moment?

NOTHING but speculation!

[sma10]

At this point it would be TD12, because the circulation was completely gone for a period of time. In fact, this disturbance may in some way be related to TD10, but the wave axis of the former TD10 actually moved well west of where this disturbance is before dissipating entirely.

I agree with you, but I'm not entirely sure what the NHC is going to do. As recently as this afternoon, they are still initializing the model runs as TD10.

[WeatherEmperor]

all the HPC says is that a tropical system may affect florida that doesn't mean squat.All it means is that a tropical system which could just be a wave is expected to affect the florida area.

Alot of specualtion is being put into the mouth of some of the professionals wording and thats always a bit annoying.Clearly the NHC says that any development would be slow to occur if it develops at all.

I will go with the officials. thanks

So will I Rainband. So will I.

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

ok here are some official NWS discussions and we will see the differences in them!!!!!Then we can say that they are all on a different page and are speculating on the system!


this is from the keys NWS:

THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS IS STILL FORECAST BY GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...MOVE VERY SLOWLY WNW TO
THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING REGION BY WED NIGHT-FRI...AND DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ETA REMAINS VERY DIFFERENT WITH
THE WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A LOW AS IT TURNS NORTH OVER THE BAHAMAS.
FORECAST GRIDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A FEW BACK-TO-BACK RUNS NOW. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WIND-WISE WILL BE WHETHER THE WAVE FORMS A WEAK CLOSED LOW NEAR OR
OVER THE KEYS...WHICH WILL DICTATE WIND DIRECTION

Clearly says that the models bring a weak system there way but that the ETA takes it thru the northern bahamas

this is one from miami:

THE OTHER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH WAVE NOW
MOVING W JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. GFS BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS S FLA
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND BUT THE ETA DEVELOPS A LOW
ALONG THE WAVE AND THEN KEEPS IT TO OUR EAST. WILL KEEP OUR
FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR NOW EXCEPT I DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
FOR FRI.

again mentions the ETA keeping the system east of them and they leave their forecast as is!

melbourne is the only one with the grapes to be dumb enough to say likelihood of development:

LOCAL WILD
CARD WILL BE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
BOOSTED BY LATER FORECASTS AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON
DETERIORATING ELEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ATTM. BEST BET WILL BE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM MIDWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF
SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA.

[WeatherEmperor]

For now Im gonna trust the GFS and Euro models.

<RICKY>

[johngaltfla]

Yea...is it just me...or does it seem the NHC is REALLY concerned about this one?

That's a good question. Because it's not like the long drawn out events like Charley, Ivan, Dennis, etc. It would be a fast forming storm that would intensify rapidly in the 90 degree waters.

My guess is they are just being cautious because of the unusual climatology of this season....

[shaggy]

is the NHC concerned? they only mention it in the TWO and the TWD concern would be a special tropical disturbance statement which we haven't seen yet

[deltadog03]

I think they are concerned...I am a little bit as of now....It still fighting...Although, the last VIS pics show a more symmetrical system. The clouds on the northern side of this are not beeing sheared as much...they also show somewhat of a banding structure? anyone else seeing this?? also, is there a LLC?? or is it close to the surface?

[shaggy]

although i am VERY skeptical of this system it has seemed to get a little better defined in the last few frames.Not sure where any center might be but theres some sort of MLC or something there.Just hate that people speculate on the strength of system that hasn't developed and has not even been calssified as a storm yet.Will just have to wait and watch either way its no problem for me here in NC

[SouthFloridawx]

Our local MET here mentioned the very heavy rainfall over south florida from a tropical wave this weekend on West Palm Beach Ch. 5

[Dean4Storms]

As it appears to me the ULL to the NNW of the wave is moving off to the west alot faster than our wave. Given this, as the increase in separation occurs we should see a slow development of this system as ridging moves over it aloft it will likely by then be near Florida or in the Straits. This will be at the point that this system could really deepen as indicated by the CMC. I see only the land of Florida being the inhibiting factor if the low moves over south Florida by late in the week. Once it emerges in the Gulf I believe there is an increasing likelihood of some significant deepening.

No matter, just about all the models except maybe the ETA have this system in the GOM come the weekend and there will be plenty of potential for further development.

[shaggy]

last CMC i saw doesn't have such a strong storm still lokmspretty weak to me is there another site with a more updated cmc model i don't know about?