Wow- these are some warm waters

[jimvb]

There was a study recently that says that hurricanes are worse (more numerous, stronger) than before because of global warming. Maybe all these hurricanes we are getting are a fluke, like Edna, Connie, Hazel, Donna and all those were back in my childhood days. But I see a connection. Global warming warms the seas. The warmer seas provide fuel for tropical cyclones, meaning that there are more of them and they are stronger. So yes, I will go along with that.

But before monstrous Category 9 (220 mph winds) hurricanes level a section of the Atlantic or Gulf Coast, a bigger disaster may occur first that will stop the global warming and probably reverse it. Peak oil. Emission of hydrocarbons in the atmosphere are a major cause of global warming.

[Mathias]

I think that green house gases enhance the intensity of hurricanes, but not their frequency in development. Same number of hurricanes, but more powerful. Of course there is yet to be enough climatological data to base off as scientific evidence. Given a sufficient amount of time past the multi-decadal cycle of enhanced hurricane activity we might know whether global warming is effecting the intensity of hurricanes. If enhanced activity lasts for more than a century, coupled with rigorous scientific observations of inclement climate data, then evidence of such a change in climate will be evident. Until then it is just a theory, and any proclamations of it as being fact are baseless, and specious displays of opinion. My opinion: global warming is a natural cycle of the earth that man is effecting; enhancing and exacerbating its effects. Not scientific fact, just supposition.

[OuterBanker]

Wow, I really had no idea of how warm the water is. I know that it's toasty here which is in complete contrast to last year where the water was cold all summer. What is disturbing is that the temps off the Carolinas support Cat 4 and 5 storms. I really am hoping now that the forecasters are wrong about a Carolina's hit this year.

[jimvb]

Looks like you are right in the firing line of these storms, on the Outer Banks. Are there the normal number of vacationers at the Outer Banks, or is all this talk about hurricanes diminishing the crowds? I had been thinking of darting over there sometime in September, but not when the canes threaten.

GFS (if you believe it) says that there will be some kind of CV storm about two weeks from now; one run even had it brushing by the Outer Banks like Gloria 1985. The latest run says it will go fish in the middle of the Atlantic. But I will continue watching it. And behind it, it seems that someone has set up some sort of tropical cyclone factory in Africa, and they are coming off the end of that assembly line.

[OuterBanker]

Jim, come on down the waters fine. To be honest the ocean conditions the past couple weeks have been near perfect. Water has been warm (a little too warm for me), clear, with nice ridable waves and no undertow. A few too many jellyfish. By far Sept is the best month here, the water is still warm, families with kids are gone and there is more beach to be had. Of course the "H's" can spoil the party. As far a hype over hurricanes most of the media has left us alone, Fla has been getting all the attention which is fine with us. Of course being ranked fifth in the country for traffic congestion in tourist areas didn't help (when that was released I thought it was for just the 4th of July weekend).

[Sanibel]

Those maps make it clear that any landfallers this year are not likely to weaken prior to landfall like they did in 2004...

[sponger]

Once again, to beat the dead horse silly, world wide hurricane activity is down! Global warming would not be an Atlantic Basin Problem.

I am not saying it does not exist, but warm temps in Atlantic don't prove anything except we are all in for a wild ride!

[Sanibel]

Yeah, forget about a record early season and every swirl cooking up during the lull...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Sanibel this season is clearly something else. We'll need more data and monitoring to figure out how much of an impact greenhouse gases are having on storm intensity, but I'll stick with my hydrocarbonic theory as an educated guess.

[Sanibel]

High SST's in the peak phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes certainly AMO (I forgot about that). It'll be interesting to see how this peak year compares to past peak years at the end of this season.

If only we had kept records for at least 500 years...It would put me out of my misery
It would perhaps reveal the answers to some of our mysteries.

It would be interesting to see any trends in peak phases during past AMOs. Then it would be easier to judge if AMO peak phases from different periods were getting more and more or less and less conducive. And then speculate about greenhouse gases.

The greenhouse theory to me seems possible, but I'll have to perform some controlled experiments to see if it's actually likely. Those control experiments would have to mirror atmospheric conditions as much as possible.

It almost seems like given proper conditions and peak AMO, the storms just explode, and comparative analysis between different AMOs may reveal trends, the influencing factors of which can be speculated on.