Homegrown? Naked circulation developing in GOM!!!!!!!

wolfray · #21 Postby **wolfray** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 4:49 pm

I believe JB said Sat or Sun would be the days to be concerned with this or the days it could form....

Astro_man92 · #22 Postby **Astro_man92** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 4:53 pm

Rashid wrote:it's very broad and extremely disorganized. at this pace, it will take a long time to develop...

What do you mean by broad? Do you mean ovious. are you calling my stupid? :lol:

Agua · #23 Postby **Agua** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 4:53 pm

Yeah, naked swirl is right. You must have blown your eyes out trying to find it.

#24 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 4:58 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
GalvestonDuck wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
GalvestonDuck wrote:I think it's hard to see for my amateur eyes. (Not doubting ya, wxcrazy...just not skilled enough to see it.)

wxcrazy? are you refering to me? I don't see where he posted in this thread.

Oops, yeah...you.

LOL, don't make me come down there!

At least you wouldn't ahve too far to drive!!!LOLOL!!!!

Swimdude · #25 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:50 pm

Yeah there's nothing to it.

Astro_man92 · #26 Postby **Astro_man92** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:51 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Now that is interesting how these systems form. Like Danny 1997 its worth watching.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199705.asp
Danny's track

HouTXmetro · #27 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:35 pm

check out the latest NHC sat loop. On the frontal overlay they have placed an area of low pressure right over the circulation I pointed out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

KeyLargoDave · #28 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:59 pm

Don't know if this is been mentioned, but when I last checked the FSU ensemble model (12z 7/28), at T=120, it showed three tropical cyclones, with one having formed just off the LA coast and going ashore somewhere near LA/MS/AL. If I knew how to post an image, I would have put it up -- I saved it as a png file.

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#29 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:00 pm

yep, no doubt about it but its getting the crap sheared out of it too.... boy, amazing that you could even find that circulation but its quite evident on the link you provided..

#30 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:03 pm

KeyLargoDave wrote:Don't know if this is been mentioned, but when I last checked the FSU ensemble model (12z 7/28), at T=120, it showed three tropical cyclones, with one having formed just off the LA coast and going ashore somewhere near LA/MS/AL. If I knew how to post an image, I would have put it up -- I saved it as a png file.

[/url]

Host it at a site like imageshack then you can post a link.

Most of what I've seen indicates it will drift W or WSW.

HouTXmetro · #31 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:05 pm

jschlitz wrote:
KeyLargoDave wrote:Don't know if this is been mentioned, but when I last checked the FSU ensemble model (12z 7/28), at T=120, it showed three tropical cyclones, with one having formed just off the LA coast and going ashore somewhere near LA/MS/AL. If I knew how to post an image, I would have put it up -- I saved it as a png file.

[/url]

Host it at a site like imageshack then you can post a link.

Most of what I've seen indicates it will drift W or WSW.

Same here, if it goes west it's going to crash into NOLA

#32 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:41 pm

Should we start our evacuation plans here in NO? Just kidding, great find on the sat photo. I guess I need better glasses though, I'm just not seeing any potential threats as of now in the Gulf.

#33 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:52 pm

Kudo's to you for finding that HTM!!!! I was thinking "what is he talking about" at first, but then I finally found it and the overlay confirmed what was going on. Will be interesting to see if the area becomes more favorable for development over the next few days. It still reminds me of Alicia and how she started in some ways. :eek:

And no I am not predicting another Alica or even a Danny, but wierder things have happened.

southerngale · #34 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:55 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:check out the latest NHC sat loop. On the frontal overlay they have placed an area of low pressure right over the circulation I pointed out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Good eye HouTXmetro!

#35 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:15 pm

It's going to be interesting to see if anything forms down there. The pressures weren't dropping last night (haven't checked the buoys this evening though). If nothing else, a lot of us along the GC will be getting thunderstorms (yesterday and today ours were after 6pm).

But it looks like a pretty weak area. The only juice coming is from the energy in southern AL/GA and the impulse crossing FL. I don't know if it's enough to spawn anything. I guess we'll see. :?:

Steve

#36 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:23 pm

It's weak but it's there. You just have to look hard though to see it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

#37 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:26 pm

Boy....talk about faint!

#38 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:27 pm

skysummit wrote:Boy....talk about faint!

Yep it's faint.

#39 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:28 pm

>>It's weak but it's there. You just have to look hard though to see it.

The ssd Gulf WV loop kinda hints at what's there too with maybe some anti-cyclonic turning over top...

Steve

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#40 Postby **stormcloud** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:30 pm

Pressures in the Gulf are very high, but not out of the question for some sort of development. I hate to see any kind of a wind shift in the Gulf this time of year...

Homegrown? Naked circulation developing in GOM!!!!!!!

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