GOM and 92L

[Huckster]

1030L 28 July Tropical Update:



Tropical Storm Franklin has finally decided to get moving and is accelerating out to sea toward its death in the cold waters of the North Atlantic.



The first of the waves that we have been tracking is now east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It has flared up over the past 24 hours and may be developing into a depression. The good news for Eglin is that it is already close to 20 degrees latitude and systems which form that far to the north in the Atlantic usually become east coast, rather than Gulf, storms


Are they being optimistic or realistic??

Normally, storms that far northeast do not make it to the Gulf. I should say, the majority don't anyway, but this one might be able to make it that far west if a ridge blocks it in the western Atlantic.

[baygirl_1]

imho, if this thing gets its act together and becomes a td (or something stronger down the road), we on the gulf coast will have a lot of time to watch it. if it does develop, it will threaten other areas first, i.e. the islands of the caribbean, bahamas, florida, etc. but, as always, we wait, we watch...

[dwg71]

realistically this is not a GOM storm. It could change but not likely... I thought they were going to put up the hurricance sheild from YUC to keys anyway. I dont see US landfall with 92L, because I dont think it will develop..

[Ivanhater]

realistically this is not a GOM storm. It could change but not likely... I thought they were going to put up the hurricance sheild from YUC to keys anyway. I dont see US landfall with 92L, because I dont think it will develop..

really? its looking pretty good today, and the NHC seems to think development is likely, and the hydro and florida weather services seem to think the ridge will hang strong, so i think u.s landfall is likely.jmho

[beachbum_al]

Beware...I got my DSL.

Okay so does this mean that I will be in Pensacola this weekend for my nephew's christening and I will be bombarding my people leaving.

[Opal storm]

GOM storm?Models are taking this well north of the Gulf,and it looks like that's were it's going.

[Ivanhater]

GOM storm?Models are taking this well north of the Gulf,and it looks like that's were it's going.

no my friend, there will be a ridge that builds back in, read the miami thread and the hydro thread
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

[shaggy]

theres a lot of speculating on a storm that hasn't developed yet.Just watch and wait to see what develops and then see what the models do with it.Seems like any swirl is automatically a GOM storm nowadays and that may not be the case here so patience is a virtue for now

[Ivanhater]

theres a lot of speculating on a storm that hasn't developed yet.Just watch and wait to see what develops and then see what the models do with it.Seems like any swirl is automatically a GOM storm nowadays and that may not be the case here so patience is a virtue for now

normally i would agree with you, but this is coming from the weather services

[Opal storm]

GOM storm?Models are taking this well north of the Gulf,and it looks like that's were it's going.

no my friend, there will be a ridge that builds back in, read the miami thread and the hydro thread
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.

Oh,now I see.

[shaggy]

true but the weather services are going on the same unfinished data on a storm that hasn't developed so what can they say because they don't have any new data from models on a developed storm.I understand what your saying and its not entirely imopossible for this system to make it to the gulf but to say that its certainly going there is also a false statement.

[Ivanhater]

true but the weather services are going on the same unfinished data on a storm that hasn't developed so what can they say because they don't have any new data from models on a developed storm.I understand what your saying and its not entirely imopossible for this system to make it to the gulf but to say that its certainly going there is also a false statement.

totally agree, no one knows where its going, but like i said, thats what the forecast is for now, not to say it wont change

[shaggy]

lets hope it just skims the east coast about 50 miles off hatteras cause we certainly could use the heat relief and the rain.We have been very dry and hot.High yesterday was 102 with highest heat index of 122 at about 4pm.Lastnight at 1 am it was 84 with heat index of 101.

[jax]

i thinks it's another GOM'er

[caplan1]

If I had to vote, I would say GOM

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well I for one am watching this system, because if it does become a Gommer, and there is all this talk about fronts around, we on the florida west coast should be paying attention. -that's when we need to watch out, when the ridge just sticks a toe into florida and/or a front is dipping into the gulf. -otherwise the storms head for north central or western GOM (if they get into the GOM at all)

[wxmann_91]

Anybody see a repeat of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane? Cause that would be catastrophic for the Keys and the west coast of Florida.

[frederic79]

Lots of ifs... IF it develops, IF it intesifies, IF the ridge builds, ETC. However, plenty of warm water in place and IF the storm-to-be takes a path similar to Emily, it could indeed skirt south Florida and track into the central Gulf next week(overlay Emily's track onto map at L92's current latitude) assuming the ridge is that strong. It's just too early to speculate much, although early August is prime-time. (Sorry, I just remembered this season has nothing to do with climotology-oops!)

[dwg71]

What am I not seeing, the global and tropical models seem to be in pretty good agreeance that this is not a GOMer. Yet all I see here is GOM here it comes. Its really far north to be a GOMer in my opinion.

[fci]

Sorry to disagree with you "GOM wish-casters" but how often do we see a system become named. move through the Fla straits and into the GOM?
I know this year is an anomaly but generally when a system is north of the islands it curves out to sea as a fish or hits the Carolinas on its way out.
On rare occasion (like twice in 3 weeks last year) it hits Fla.
A GOM storm would have to cross Southern or Central Florida, not curve North (like Jeanne and Francis last year) and then threaten the GOM.
Possible? Yes
Likely? NO

Don't get me wrong, living here in S Fla, I would much prefer it visit you GOM'ers than us; but you will need to wait for another one to label a GOM.
Unless it comes by here only as a Tropical Wave in which case you could get whatever becomes of it after it passes.
If it strengthens, forget it being a GOM if it passes north of the islands.
My amateur opinion from watching for many years.....