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[Anonymous]

Welcome back guys!!

TWW...I saw somewhere else where you didn't think Bill would form until late July. Can you expand a little and tell us why?

I'm not TWW but I know his reasoning -- MJO. In about a week or so, the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic basin. A dry MJO is NOT conducive for development, as it tends to increase the pressure anomalies and causes more stable air. Now, both dry and wet phases last about 20 days in the Atlantic, so that means we will likely be under a dry phase (unfavorable conditions) from mid to late June to around mid July. Now does this mean the chances of seeing Bill are completely 0 during this time? Of course not! An unfavorable MJO does not mean for sure no storms, it simply means less favorable conditions and thus decreases the chance of seeing storm activity. If our timing is correct, the next wet MJO phase will come in the second half of July, which would increase the chance of seeing Bill (regardless of MJO, it is around this time conditions tend to improve in any season).

Aside from the MJO, another inhibiting factor for any development any time soon is the high frequency of fronts exiting the east coast. What kept the Gulf low from organizing? A front. What keeps delivering dry air and upper level lows to the western Atlantic? Fronts. What's resulting in all of these fronts in the first place? Residual El Nino affects. As a La Nina builds in this summer, we should see all these shortwave troughs diminish completely, allowing for the environment to get very ripe as the peak season approaches. If the La Nina comes in fast enough, the time of an extreme rebound of the conditions should be...late July. Ding ding ding!

So basically, while we could still get Bill sometime this month or early next month, odds are in favor of it not coming until late July (possibly even August). The weather has been pulling fast ones on us lately, so who knows lol.

BTW Chad, thanks for getting up my old avatar. Actually I had a different one last (a green radar) that I got off a different icon site, but don't worry about it. This one is fine, and if I want to get the other one I'll look for it myself.

[Stormsfury]

Agreed, Rob, on the residual El Niño Effects.

Also, I posted this somewhere else, but the record snowcover for the Northern Hemisphere and much stronger than usual high pressure systems (as a result) in Eastern Canada has caused the overall pattern to lag behind the calendar year by a month or so...

Once the summer time pattern can establish itself ... things should quickly become more interesting ... which IMO, the summertime pattern could become more established towards the end of June or the beginning of July ... not a lot of scientific basis on this (sorry to say this), but since the past few months the pattern has been lagging behind by a month, it's a persistence call on my part.

[weatherlover427]

Missed you guys.

[ColdFront77]

Welcome back Jason and Rob. I am also very glad that the disagreements were resolved. Looking forward to all the tropical weather discussions here as the season continues.

[Anonymous]

Thanks guys...we missed everyone just as much!

I agree completely with Rob's thoughts on the Madden Julian Osillation. I also mentioned the MJO in my latest discussion, which I will now be updating daily along with Rob. I was on vacation last week so the products weren't being updated as much as we wanted them to be.

[Guest]

Welcome back Jason and Rob............ This is gonna be a great season and i look forward to seeing everyones input..............I will mention that im in agreement as well about the Residual El Nino Effects...............And them fronts sure has kept me busy in the USA forecasting Dept..............Im thinking the pattern is gonna change this week across the US which should hopefully mean a quieter and warmer pattern for the eastern half of the US.............Which i will get more into this tommorow in the USA forum............

[weatherlover427]

I thought that El Nino was already gone? Anyway, sorry to sidetrack the thread.

[Anonymous]

El Nino is history. But it takes a few months for the pattern to change. Don't worry about the post. My thread was kinda OT anyway.

[weatherlover427]

Ah I see, it makes sense that things wouldn't be back to normal right away anyway.

[JetMaxx]

Jason...Rob...welcome back guys!!

Take care,
Perry

[Anonymous]

Thanks Perry! Its great to see you posting here!

[JetMaxx]

Thanks Jason!

[JetMaxx]

Thanks Jason!

[southerngale]

Welcome back guys!!

TWW...I saw somewhere else where you didn't think Bill would form until late July. Can you expand a little and tell us why?

I'm not TWW but I know his reasoning -- MJO. In about a week or so, the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic basin. A dry MJO is NOT conducive for development, as it tends to increase the pressure anomalies and causes more stable air. Now, both dry and wet phases last about 20 days in the Atlantic, so that means we will likely be under a dry phase (unfavorable conditions) from mid to late June to around mid July. Now does this mean the chances of seeing Bill are completely 0 during this time? Of course not! An unfavorable MJO does not mean for sure no storms, it simply means less favorable conditions and thus decreases the chance of seeing storm activity. If our timing is correct, the next wet MJO phase will come in the second half of July, which would increase the chance of seeing Bill (regardless of MJO, it is around this time conditions tend to improve in any season).

Aside from the MJO, another inhibiting factor for any development any time soon is the high frequency of fronts exiting the east coast. What kept the Gulf low from organizing? A front. What keeps delivering dry air and upper level lows to the western Atlantic? Fronts. What's resulting in all of these fronts in the first place? Residual El Nino affects. As a La Nina builds in this summer, we should see all these shortwave troughs diminish completely, allowing for the environment to get very ripe as the peak season approaches. If the La Nina comes in fast enough, the time of an extreme rebound of the conditions should be...late July. Ding ding ding!

So basically, while we could still get Bill sometime this month or early next month, odds are in favor of it not coming until late July (possibly even August). The weather has been pulling fast ones on us lately, so who knows lol.

BTW Chad, thanks for getting up my old avatar. Actually I had a different one last (a green radar) that I got off a different icon site, but don't worry about it. This one is fine, and if I want to get the other one I'll look for it myself.

Thanks so much for the long explanation. It helped me to understand some things better and I really appreciate it.

I look forward to your input this season.

[Anonymous]

Anytime, SG.