NOAA plane taking measurments of the GULF

[deltadog03]

Whats this new info show and what should it do for the models.. once they keep going out and if the millibars weaken it shows weakness allowing for a more n turn correct.. correct me if im wrong

It should allow the models to more accurately forecast the ridging over the northern gulf of mexico. The surface pressures don't necessarily have very much to do with it.

Thanks gkrangers and others...so, what would your take be on a SSE wind at all levels..??

[Stratosphere747]

Unless something radical changes, this most likely will not be a Texas storm.

[MWatkins]

Whats this new info show and what should it do for the models.. once they keep going out and if the millibars weaken it shows weakness allowing for a more n turn correct.. correct me if im wrong

It should allow the models to more accurately forecast the ridging over the northern gulf of mexico. The surface pressures don't necessarily have very much to do with it.

Thanks gkrangers and others...so, what would your take be on a SSE wind at all levels..??

I would not expect that to be an issue in 3/4 days as the ridge steering Emily is building westward right now. In fact this synoptic setup (sse flow up there) is well resolved in the latest GFS run at 18Z and in the 12Z global guidance:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

However...by 48 hours the flow pattern down where Emily is will be mostly east to west:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

Remember the observations tell us what is currently going on...the models use this info to help us understand what will happen later. Hence I would caution anyone from making a steering determination on the flow as it exists now...it will change in 3 days before the hurricane gets in that general area.

MW