N.O.at 4pm is now in the strike probability zone.

[iceangel]

I was very surprised to read this.
The difference between N.O. (2%) and Brownsville (3%)
is only 1%!!!!
That makes think there is still alot of uncertainity with
Emily's future track. I just don't think it will be as cut and dry as
some of you believe. IMO

000
WTNT75 KNHC 152043
SPFAT5
HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON JUL 18 2005

Code: Select all

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

16.6N  78.9W      48  1  X  X 49   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  3 18 21
18.3N  82.0W       X 37  1  X 38   KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  1  2
20.0N  85.5W       X  2 28  1 31   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MKJP 179N 768W    29  X  X  X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
MKJS 185N 779W    23  4  X  X 27   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  2  2
MWCG 193N 814W     X 35  1  X 36   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  4  4  X  8   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  3  3
MUSN 216N 826W     X  8 16  X 24   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
MUHA 230N 824W     X  1 10  1 12   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  3  3
MUAN 219N 850W     X  1 25  1 27   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  2  2
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X 23  4 27   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  3  3
MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  3  8 11   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  6  6
MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  8  8
MHNJ 165N 859W     X  1  7  2 10   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  8  8
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  5  5
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  5  5
MMVR 192N 961W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  7  7
MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  X  7  7

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[djtil]

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

you should really read the thread.....its been explained....there is no "they".

[Derecho]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

Read my reply above. You have to understand how it's a THREE DAY probability.

[dwg71]

Also, they have been moving the bubble north.. just a little each time

That's not necessarily true, the bubble has been moving in the direction the storm is expected to go wnw...

Well this morning i was barly in the bubble. now beamout is barly in the bubble.

look at NHC's official cone, beaumont is not in it, and its moved ever so slightly west.

[cycloneye]

New Orleans is out of the cone.See track at advisorie thread.

[Stormcenter]

I still don't think this is comforting to see for anyone living along the Western or Central GOM coastline.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... trike.html

[hicksta]

New Orleans is out of the cone.See track at advisorie thread.

I meant to say Beaumout...

[micktooth]

If you are really worried, you can evacuate now, there is not too much traffic on I-10. Just remember to head east this time and not west.

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans is out of the cone.See track at advisorie thread.

I don't think N.O. was ever in it.

But as I stated before this storm is still so far
out that right now the "cone" is meaningless.

[Stormcenter]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

Thank you.

Especially when you consider the storm is headed in Brownsville direction more so than N.O. I think the system is flawed and misleading.

[djtil]

But as I stated before this storm is still so far
out that right now the "cone" is meaningless.

really? i think its extremely meaningful and would be shocked if emily didnt hit in the current cone.

[dwg71]

I still don't think this is comforting to see for anyone living along the Western or Central GOM coastline.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... trike.html

That graphic has the florida keys as a higher percentage than gulf coast, its a worthless graphic...

[mvtrucking]

Derecho,
Thank you for the explanation........

[dwg71]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

Thank you.

Especially when you consider the storm is headed in Brownsville direction more so than N.O. I think the system is flawed and misleading.

That is not a landfall percentage chart, its the chance of the storm traveling with 65 nm of that location in 72 hours. 72 hours is the key... You heard it here first, in 72 hours it isnt going to be anywhere NO, or Brownsville for that matter, or any where else on the gulf coast.

Look at the percentage for Cancun 20.5N and 82.6w, its at 27%, that means if your in vegas put your money on cancun if your options are cancun or NO, or Galveston, or Brownsville. Its not really that complicated.

[Stormcenter]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

Thank you.

Especially when you consider the storm is headed in Brownsville direction more so than N.O. I think the system is flawed and misleading.

That is not a landfall percentage chart, its the chance of the storm traveling with 65 nm of that location in 72 hours. 72 hours is the key... You heard it here first, in 72 hours it isnt going to be anywhere NO, or Brownsville for that matter, or any where else on the gulf coast.

Look at the percentage for Cancun 20.5N and 82.6w, its at 27%, that means if your in vegas put your money on cancun if your options are cancun or NO, or Galveston, or Brownsville. Its not really that complicated.

But your average Joe Blow doesn't care how close the storm is coming only whether or not it IS coming to their home. So wouldn't it make a lot more sense if they listed the percentages based the probability of the storm center striking your area directly?

[Brent]

You people would argue over flies on the wall...

[Stormcenter]

You people would argue over flies on the wall...

With no new satellite images it's boring so we have nothing else to do but argue.

[dwg71]

Stormcenter that is what the cone is for... the average joe blow never sees this chart..

[vbhoutex]

As Dennis made landfall at Pensacola, Port Arthur TEXAS had a 2% probability.

True but with Brownsivlle 3% makes no sense to have NO right behind them at 2% unless they are worried about something..

don't read more into it than is there. The explanations given are quite valid.

[vbhoutex]

You people would argue over flies on the wall...

No, but we do swat them!!! *thwap*