Officially CATEGORY 4...

[alicia-w]

does anyone know how often there have been two CAT 4 storms in a week? seems extreme to me and we've only started the season. i'm MORE than ready to move back to AZ.

[Stratusxpeye]

does anyone know how often there have been two CAT 4 storms in a week? seems extreme to me and we've only started the season. i'm MORE than ready to move back to AZ.

Not sure about in a week but i had the same questions in regards to the july month seeing two cat 4's and dennis was too damn close to cat 5 status right before landfall in cuba he was a min cat 5 IMO and some other peoples. It's never happeaned before in this month but Good question about the week. Or In Any given year how many total cat 4s or cat 5s have there been. This is crazy. We may have to rewrite entire tropical weather history record books.

[Lowpressure]

does anyone know how often there have been two CAT 4 storms in a week? seems extreme to me and we've only started the season. i'm MORE than ready to move back to AZ.

Not sure about in a week but i had the same questions in regards to the july month seeing two cat 4's and dennis was too damn close to cat 5 status right before landfall in cuba he was a min cat 5 IMO and some other peoples. It's never happeaned before in this month but Good question about the week. Or In Any given year how many total cat 4s or cat 5s have there been. This is crazy. We may have to rewrite entire tropical weather history record books.

Without research, I would say that David and Frederick may have pulled it off in 1979. Not sure just off the top of my head guess.

As far as the forward speed issue, I would say it tends to effect storm surge more than anything. Dennis had a small area of high winds, but a large are of high winds moving at a forward speed of 20 would pile up a lot of water over a large distance.

[canegrl04]

This is a first for the month of July,I believe

[Scorpion]

At this rate we'll have 3-4 majors this month.

[Brent]

does anyone know how often there have been two CAT 4 storms in a week?

It's never happened in July... EVER. We've never even had 2 majors in July.

[Cape Verde]

Oddly, if you look at the visible satellite floater, the forecast points all read Cat 3.

[alicia-w]

according to the latest advisory, it is indeed now a cat 3 storm.

[AnthonyC]

Emily is in a reorganizing eyewall phase...but the environment ahead of her isn't looking too good. I think she's peaked in intensity...she should remain a weak category 3 hurricane until landfall along the Yucatan peninsula. I had hopes this thing would become a category 5.

Anthony

[dwg71]

Hopes???

Wow, I wouldnt ever "hope" for a Cat 5, whether its coming towards me or anybody else.

[WaryEye]

I'm sure he meant for historical purposes that she might become a Cat 5 over water and weaken before landfall anywhere else. At least I would hope that's what he meant.

[joseph01]

Looking at recent visuals, Emily if throwing out in front of her, what looks like a long, curved spiralling cloud. Sort of like a horizontal tornado. Do those have a name, and anyone know what causes them?

[Cape Verde]

Looking at recent visuals, Emily if throwing out in front of her, what looks like a long, curved spiralling cloud. Sort of like a horizontal tornado. Do those have a name, and anyone know what causes them?

<P>I don't know, but they sure are visually impressive.

[Lowpressure]

It almost looks like some sort of outflow boundry, might need a pro met here.

[Sanibel]

July Caribbean reality. Looks like a diurnal phase filling the storm back out to its entire field. No longer a buzzsaw.


This could allow Emily to draw from a bigger area further down the track...

[hicksta]

This looks like the worst organized cat 4 iv seen =-/

[Brent]

This looks like the worst organized cat 4 iv seen =-/

It's not a Cat 4 as of 3 hours ago.

[mf_dolphin]

This looks like the worst organized cat 4 iv seen =-/

maybe because it's a Cat3 now?

[hicksta]

Ah, i just woke up say the post.

[Pebbles]

They figure windspeed without forward motion included in it ...she's definitely cat 4...

Nope, had a long discussion with a professional met about this during Dennis. The windspeed reported in the public updates is the actual (if measured) or estimated (if not measured) windspeed that is on the ground, which means inclusive of forward speed winds and cyclonic winds. They even mention in the NHC discussion that the highest winds (125 kt) were in the NE quadrent.

What this means is you DO NOT need to ADD forward speed to the public advisory in order to get actual wind speed on the ground, but that also means you would need to SUBTRACT forward speed in order to get cyclonic wind speed, which, IMHO, is indicative of the actual storm strength. This explains why Mobile, AL got such light effects from Dennis as compared to Panama City Beach - Mobile had winds of less than 80 (120 reported at Navarre Beach minus 20 for forward speed to get cyclonic wind speed, and minus another 20 for being on the west side of the storm where forward speed and cyclonic winds are in opposite directions. )

Coincidently, I was using this same idea in the opposite direction to forecast Dennis being Cat 4 about 1 hour before it went public. My reasoning: Max flight level winds were reported by RECON at 105 kt in the SW quadrent (about 110 mph on the ground,) and Dennis was moving forward at 15. Because this is the quadrent where forward speed and cyclonic speed are opposite, you need to add twice the forward speed in order to get ground windspeed in the NE quadrent. Do this and you get a flight level windspeed of 135 KT, or a 145 mph Cat 4 on the ground. Sure enough, on the next public advisory (Advisory 24,) windspeed was adjusted up to the exact speed my math had predicted, using the same RECON data the NHC uses.


See, the math backs me up every time, and I stand my my original assertion: Emily is a fast moving Cat 3 with Cat 4 winds in the NE quad.

Wow... you know.. I don't know what to believe anymore! LOL But you have given the best explanation by far. I have to agree with others that obviously mets are in disagreement on this one. Wish we could get a definitive answer from someone at the NHC and they pass it on to the Mets because different mets are saying opposite things. Maybe a topic for future discussion for sure (we kinda hijacked the thread ...sorry)!