98L future track??

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The Big Dog
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#21 Postby The Big Dog » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:48 pm

air360 wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
patsmsg wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.


And you know this how?
I'm psychic.

The subtropical ridge plays a huge role in determining weather storms move west and impact the US, or recurve out to sea.

I can't comment on something thats nearly two weeks away tho. Wait till "Emily" is near the lesser antilles...then we'll have a better idea if its a fish, US East Coast threat, or gulf/carribbean threat.


I wasnt even really looking for a forecast on this system specifically...but just a general rundown on how things work (ie: strong ridge could cause a storm to do ____, a weaker high could cause storm to ____) stuff like that....didnt even have to be specific to this storm or any

Stronger ridge would tend to keep it moving westward, while a weaker ridge may allow it to turn out to sea. Even a strong ridge further east could allow it to turn. Most of the models I've seen show weakness in the Atlantic high in the next week, but it's waaaaay too early to tell. A lot of it also depends on whether it takes a northern or southern route towards the islands. Southern route would mean that the high would have less effect regardless of whether it's weak or strong.
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#22 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:48 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its really a tropical distrabance on the line of becoming a depression...


I'v seen distrabance be upgraded with no quickscats showing that it even has a LLC. Just from a Ship report showing west wind. If it was not for dennis this would be a depression.


What does Dennis have to do with this thing not being a depression?


becuase everyone wants to focus on dennis (understandably) and this has such a long time before it threatens anyone that they dont want to worry people by upgrading it to a td until the really have to.
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jax

Re: 98L future track??

#23 Postby jax » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:48 pm

air360 wrote:**this is not a wishcast...this is an ability to understand the causes of events**

when a system gets closer to the US what does one need to watch to see wether it would curve up the coast of the US or go straight through FL? I am asking this becuase ive seen some models showing it go straight through FL and i saw a couple of others curving it up and pretty much missing landfall...so when i thought about a mix of these it seemed like it could ride up the coast as well as a possibility. I know the big high has a lot to do with it but is there a place or specific strength in which the high needs to be located for the storm to go through FL, ride up the EC, or turn out the sea?


a rose... by any othe name... still a wish... i mean rose
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#24 Postby The Big Dog » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:50 pm

Um.... where do you all see the "cast" part of the "wishcast"? He's just asking a question. Geez... chill, people.
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Re: 98L future track??

#25 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:50 pm

jax wrote:
air360 wrote:**this is not a wishcast...this is an ability to understand the causes of events**

when a system gets closer to the US what does one need to watch to see wether it would curve up the coast of the US or go straight through FL? I am asking this becuase ive seen some models showing it go straight through FL and i saw a couple of others curving it up and pretty much missing landfall...so when i thought about a mix of these it seemed like it could ride up the coast as well as a possibility. I know the big high has a lot to do with it but is there a place or specific strength in which the high needs to be located for the storm to go through FL, ride up the EC, or turn out the sea?


a rose... by any othe name... still a wish... i mean rose


no, not a wish...if you had read all the posts in this thread you would have seen my question asked more specifically as well as answered and you would have also seen that it has nothing to do with -removed-
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#26 Postby southerngale » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's call it what it is now a tropical wave.I will edit to take out the name Emily.


Already done. :)
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#27 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:52 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:what sites are you using for the models??

^^^
can somebody answer that
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#28 Postby The Big Dog » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:53 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:what sites are you using for the models??

^^^
can somebody answer that

Well, I like:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
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#29 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:56 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:what sites are you using for the models??

^^^
can somebody answer that


sorry didnt get to it sooner...here is what I use...although i aint much of anything..its what i use to check them out.

many links to models:
http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropic ... tml#MODELS

great site:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models.html

more model sites:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

and of course threads on storm2k!!!
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