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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 6:10 am

Tropical update=7:00 AM EDT june 6

No big changes from previous discussion about system in the central GOM.Shear continues strong although a cold core low has formed no signs of transforming into a warm core tropical low is evident.Storm2k forecasters are monitering the situation but the main threat from this system will be rain for portions of the gulf coast so please those who live in the gulf coast follow the warnings that will be issued about flooding events that might take place.

Elsewhere tropical waves are in the tropical atlantic but no tropical development is expected.

For the entire atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.
Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 10:20 am

Tropical update=11:00 AM EDT June 6

There haved been no changes to the previous update about the area of disturbed weather in the central GOM.No signs of a surface warm core low forming in the area as shear is too strong for tropical formation.Plenty of rain will be the principal effects from this system for portions of the gulf coast where flood warnings may be issued.Storm2k forecasters are keeping an eye on it in case a warm core low forms but chances are very low.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin there is an upper trough in the caribbean causing a divergent flow near Puerto Rico and scattered showers and thunderstorms are in that area but no tropical development there is expected.

Tropical waves are traveling the atlantic but conditions are not favorable for development.

In the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru saturday.

Luis Martinez ( Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster.
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#23 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jun 06, 2003 11:57 am

Any showers for central FL from this system?
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 12:12 pm

There will be showers in central Florida but plenty more rain will fall in the pannhandle and in north Florida.
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 3:14 pm

Tropical update=4:00 PM EDT June 6

No changes from previous update as the area of disturb weather continues in the central GOM.Shear continues to be the main obstacule for this to not develop as an upper trough combined with a frontal boundary are producing all the rain that is falling in the gulf coast at this time.Gale force winds can be expected in the area of the gulf coast and even some tornadoes can form so keep an eye on that situation those who live in that area.Pressures haved been falling but rising again in some bouys so at this time no surface low has formed.

Elsewhere an upper trough is inducing showers and thunderstorms near Puerto Rico but no development from that area.

The ITCZ is active east of 45w but no development is expected from the tropical atlantic.

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the atlantic basin thru saturday

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#26 Postby isobar » Fri Jun 06, 2003 4:29 pm

Thanks Luis and David for the continuous updates. You're a great team!
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 4:41 pm

Thank you isobar and this is only the starting point of the hurricane season at storm2k and you will see much more from the forecast team as time goes by and the season gets active. :)
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#28 Postby isobar » Fri Jun 06, 2003 4:44 pm

Totally looking forward to it. :D
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 7:43 pm

Tropical update= 8:45 PM EDT june 6

No changes at the area in the GOM as no tropical development is expected in this area because this is a combination of a frontal boundary and an upper trough and that combination is not good for tropical development.However plenty of rain is falling and will continue to fall at portions of the gulf coast.Also some gale force winds may blow in that area and mariners are advised to say in port until this disturbed area moves away.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin there are tropical waves embedded in the ITCZ but no tropical development is expected.

In the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 06, 2003 9:30 pm

Tropical update=10:25 PM EDT June 6

Clouds and thunderstorms in the north GOM are associated with a trough and a frontal boundary.No tropical development from it is expected however gusty winds and copious amounts of rain are falling and will continue to fall in portions of the gulf coast.Mariners dont go out into the GOM until all has passed.There may be flash flood warnings issued for portions of the gulf coast.

Elsewhere the ITCZ is fairly active with tropical waves embedded in it but no tropical development is expected.

In the whole atlantic basin tropical storm is not expected thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#31 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jun 07, 2003 1:17 am

Tropical Update-1:16am June 7. 2003

No need to rehash what Luis has already said!! The Tropical Forecst remains the same. No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basing through Sunday.

David Van Bergen-Storm2k forecaster
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 07, 2003 6:58 am

Tropical update=7:55 AM EDT June 7

Clouds and showers with thunderstorms continue to spread over the gulf coast in the florida panhandle and this is associated with a frontal boundary and a trough.No tropical development is expected from this area.

Elsewhere the ITCZ is fairly active with tropical waves embedded in it but conditions are not favorable for tropical development either.

For the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 07, 2003 10:02 am

Tropical update 11:00 AM EDT June 7

Clouds,showers and thunderstorms are affecting the panhandle of Florida as this is related to a frontal boundary and a surface trough of low pressure but no tropical development is expected from it.

Also there are no signs of organization to an area of clouds and some thunderstorms near the east mexican coast at the tail end of the front but the storm2k forecasters will monitor that area although no tropical development is expected.

Elsewhere in the atlantic basin the ITCZ is fairly active but no organization is expected from tropical waves embedded in it.

In the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru sunday

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 07, 2003 3:00 pm

Tropical update=4:00 PM EDT June 7

There are three areas in the atlantic basin that the storm2k forecasters are watching but none have conditions favorable for tropical development at this time.

A frontal boundary combined with a surface trough are producing plenty of clouds,showers and thunderstorms in the northern gulf of mexico spreading into the panhandle of Florida but no tropical development is expected.

There is an area of broad low pressure in the SW caribbean related to the monsoon trough that is yielding clouds and thunderstorms north of Panama but no signs of organization.

The ITCZ with embedded tropical waves is fairly active but no tropical development is expected from that area.

For the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru sunday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 07, 2003 9:00 pm

Tropical update=10:00 PM EDT june 7

The atlantic basin is tranquil from any tropical development at this time.However there are areas that we are watching and those areas are the bay of campeche where the tail end of front lies,the SW caribbean sea where a broad low pressure is in the area and the ITCZ in the tropical atlantic but non of these have favorable conditions to develop tropical systems.

In the whole atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru monday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#36 Postby Guest » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:37 am

Thanks for the great updates guys....:) Looking good.......:)
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#37 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:39 am

I like them too. :D Good job. ;)
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 08, 2003 6:27 am

Tropical update=7:30 AM EDT June 8 2003

No changes to previous updates as no tropical development is expected in the atlantic basin but there are 3 areas that the storm2k forecasters are watching.

The first area is in the bay of campeche where the tail end of an old front streches way down into that area and there is plenty of moist air and a less shear enviroment but at this time nothing tropical will form there.

The SW caribbean has a broad low pressure area that is with the monsoon trough but no tropical development is expected there.

The ITCZ has some tropical waves embedded in it but conditions are not favorable for tropical development.

For the entire atlantic basin no tropical formation is expected thru monday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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#39 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jun 08, 2003 1:23 pm

Tropical update-1:30 pM CDT June 8 2003

No changes to previous updates as no tropical development is expected in the atlantic basin but there are 3 areas that the storm2k forecasters are watching.

The first area is in the Bay of Campeche where the tail end of an old front stretches way down into that area. With plenty of moist air and a less shear environment convection is evident in the area but at this time nothing tropical is expected.

The SW caribbean has a broad low pressure area that is associated with the monsoon trough but no tropical development is expected there.

The ITCZ has some tropical waves embedded in it but conditions are not favorable for tropical development. A particulary good looking wave with evident rotation and plenty of convection has just come off the W coast of Africa and as the NHC discussions noted if it were August we would probably be watching a developing TS, but not at this time of year with stable air abundant and SST's still too cool N of 9ºN.

For the entire atlantic basin no tropical formation is expected thru monday.

David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)-Storm2k forecaster
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#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:59 pm

Tropical update=4:00 PM EDT June 8 2003

The only area of some interest at this time in the atlantic basin is in the far eastern atlantic where a strong tropical wave is moving west with a surface low.Conditions are not favorable for tropical development of this wave but we will monitor it just in case it travels all the way into the caribbean and conditions improve.

No other areas are of concern at this time in the atlantic basin although there is a broad low pressure area in the SW caribbean but no tropical development is expected there.

For the entire atlantic basin tropical storm formation is not expected thru monday.

Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) Storm2k forecaster
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