Dennis looks east of his projected path

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undrpressr_TN
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#21 Postby undrpressr_TN » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:28 pm

Good, maybe I'm not crazy :)

Believe me, I would rather have this beast moving a little west of the forcast track. Poor Key West-- it will probably get hammered if Dennis keeps moving this way. Maybe he will still be a bit west of Key West, but he is big.

I agree that the pennisula will probably not get a landfall, but dang, if Dennis keeps getting closer there will be some strong effects. Let's hope not.
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#22 Postby BlowinNTheWind » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:28 pm

Uhhh...guys..I never said it was going to hit Tampa..I said they need to be paying attention since the track currently is right of the forecasted track...way to many people just fixate on the line of the forecasted track and assume they are fine if it is not going to their city..(see Fort Myers..Punta Gorda last year)
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#23 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:50 pm

If that's not right on top of the NHC line, it's darn close.
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#24 Postby gtalum » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:50 pm

I'm not trying to be hard to get along with... honestlY!

However, they have moved the cone further WEST at 5 pm. What's up with that, if Dennis is tracking east of the old forecast?
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#25 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:53 pm

its official!
Dennis has moved WEST-NORTHWEST over the past 6 hours
15 GMT 07/08/05 21.4N 79.9W 150 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/08/05 22.6N 81.1W 135 949 Category 4 Hurricane
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#26 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:54 pm

Yep... NHC track went slightly west. :wink:
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#27 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:54 pm

its official!
Dennis has moved WEST-NORTHWEST over the past 6 hours
15 GMT 07/08/05 21.4N 79.9W 150 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/08/05 22.6N 81.1W 135 949 Category 4 Hurricane


1.2N 1.8W
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#28 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:56 pm

they didnt move the forecasted track west at all (if you're talking about where it will strike)... they've only moved the third day west
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#29 Postby fci » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:57 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:its official!
Dennis has moved WEST-NORTHWEST over the past 6 hours
15 GMT 07/08/05 21.4N 79.9W 150 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/08/05 22.6N 81.1W 135 949 Category 4 Hurricane


1.2N 1.8W



My math tells me 1.2N and 1.2W
1.8W would have meant that it would be at 81.7W not 81.1W
1.2N and 1.2W is PERFECTLY NW!

Or am I missing something????
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#30 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:57 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:its official!
Dennis has moved WEST-NORTHWEST over the past 6 hours
15 GMT 07/08/05 21.4N 79.9W 150 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/08/05 22.6N 81.1W 135 949 Category 4 Hurricane


1.2N 1.8W



Check your math thats 1.2 for 1.2
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#31 Postby tampastorm » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:57 pm

um redo your math its 1.2-1.2each way. hmm
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#32 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:58 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:they didnt move the forecasted track west at all (if you're talking about where it will strike)... they've only moved the third day west


they followed the GFDL...imho....I don't think the NHC expects dennis to go anywhere but, NW...i mean, dosn't the "official" track pretty much look NW from here on in??
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#33 Postby Foladar » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:07 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:its official!
Dennis has moved WEST-NORTHWEST over the past 6 hours
15 GMT 07/08/05 21.4N 79.9W 150 938 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 07/08/05 22.6N 81.1W 135 949 Category 4 Hurricane


1.2N 1.8W

Well, that's some odd math :eek:
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#34 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:12 pm

whoops ya im tired...

OK ITS OFFICIAL IT MOVING NORTHWEST
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#35 Postby tropicsgal05 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:14 pm

I would like to be convinced it's not coming towards Destin, i don't wish this storm on anyone but i sure hope it doesnt come here.
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#36 Postby Ixolib » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:16 pm

tropicsgal05 wrote:I would like to be convinced it's not coming towards Destin, i don't wish this storm on anyone but i sure hope it doesnt come here.


You're in the NE quad. Seems like it's already a done deal for your neck of the woods!! :eek:
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drezee
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#37 Postby drezee » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:17 pm

yeah, the only problem is NW from here isn't where they have landfall.

48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W 110 KT
Landfall would be 30.5N 87.2W just E of P'cola

22.6N 81.1W add 7.9 degs to each for landfall due NW

30.5N 89.0W Biloxi, MS...
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#38 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:18 pm

hey I'd gladly take it here in New England...

of course then it would have to strike Florida and I dont want to wish this on anybody either... besides myslef... oh im so selfish lol
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#39 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:23 pm

hey look at this!

Image

even the NHC acknowledges the possibility of a more eastward track!
the hurricane watch issued extends to the west border of the cone however extends east outside the cone even!
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#40 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:25 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:even the NHC acknowledges the possibility of a more eastward track!
the hurricane watch issued extends to the west border of the cone however extends east outside the cone even!

Not exactly. The landfall point is always in the middle of the watch, and since a good 150 miles or more is needed on either side of a line, that's your answer. They are NOT for the last time seeing it going to the Peninsula or even being that close to it.
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