Model plots for W.Caribbean,(Not a test)

[Steve]

Indeed. Even if I only get a sunny day out of it (heh), I'll still take it. Something to track is better than nothing in my book (as long as it's not a catastrophic entity of course). As always, good to see you back on the boards. I read almost all of your posts.
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Casper,

Check out this link. It's kind of goofy and can't really be relied upon for anything but kicks, but here goes:

http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html

According to the depiction valid today, a Cat 2 and maybe 970mb is the cap off the LA Coast. I'm not saying I agree with the Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity chart, but I do think it's kind of a useful tool when viewing potential.

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

[]

Those tracks are darn close to home. Yowza...

But PT it will not be a formidable hurricane if it goes that way only from TD to a minimal Tropical Storm. But you need rain right over there?

Yeah cyclone we still have rather large rainfall deficits but had a very heavy rainfall last night and already a good soaking today so I'm not complaining about it being too dry anymore . I wouldn't mind a TS (but nothing more!), who doesn't like a windy, rainy day off from work?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Steve, what is the reason the northern gulf can not sustain anything more than a cat 1 or 2? Is that because the water temps are not extremely warm as of now? And later in the season all bets are off or are the waters just not deep enough? Please explain.

[Steve]

>>Steve, what is the reason the northern gulf can not sustain anything more than a cat 1 or 2? Is that because the water temps are not extremely warm as of now? And later in the season all bets are off or are the waters just not deep enough? Please explain.

Presumably so. The site's links to the methodology are out of date, so you can't figure them out. But based on the SST's I've looked at, that's probably the biggest factor.

Steve

[Brent]

Steve, what is the reason the northern gulf can not sustain anything more than a cat 1 or 2? Is that because the water temps are not extremely warm as of now? And later in the season all bets are off or are the waters just not deep enough? Please explain.

I think it has more to do with unfavorable winds behind a trough... aka shear.

[Anonymous]

81+ degree waters can sustain a Cat 5...it's whether or not you have dry air, or shear.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Remember, Allison in 1995 strengthened to a minimal category 1 hurricane unexpectedly while undergoing SWly shear. While I think that at max it could be a minimal tropical storm, it is important to remember that unexpected things do happen.

[senorpepr]

81+ degree waters can sustain a Cat 5...it's whether or not you have dry air, or shear.

Well, SSTs do have a factor. It's the depth of the water, the depth of the warm water, and movement of the storm and how much upwelling occurs.

[Steve]

>>81+ degree waters can sustain a Cat 5...it's whether or not you have dry air, or shear.

FB,

You got any scientific evidence or links to support this? I'm not doubting you know what you're talking about, but I'd like to see it outside of the realm of scare propaganda that probably exists at various governmental agencies (such as "it only takes one", etc.).

Thanks.

Steve