Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike?

[Trader Ron]

If Charley was going as slowly as Frances, we would have had a storm surge of 14-17 feet on some parts of Naples and Bonita Springs.

When Donna made landfall in 1960, the storm surge went over 4 miles inland. Of course nothing was built East of 41 at that time.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Remember that when looking at wind speeds, there aren't official instruments 5 feet apart from each other all over the country....so the likely event is that the anemometers missed the highest wind speed in the Pensacola area. In regards to tornadoes, I believe there was one in the Gulf Breeze area, but the majority of the rest in FL were in Bay County and the surrounding areas.

[Brent]

If Charley was going as slowly as Frances, we would have had a storm surge of 14-17 feet on some parts of Naples and Bonita Springs.

When Donna made landfall in 1960, the storm surge went over 4 miles inland. Of course nothing was built East of 41 at that time.

Yep... Charley's surge was like Cat 2 surge since that's what it was in it's entire GOM life until right at the coast.

[EmeraldCoast1]

You all can discount the NOAA SFMR and H-Wind analyses, but your readings are not based upon any type of science at all. The official damage surveys, which were sent to me by a Pensacola newspaper did indicate only cat 1 winds, and not even strong cat 1 winds, for Pensacola, regardless as to what damage occurred to isolated structures. Furthermore, I have also been told by the same newspaper, that the vast majority of the damage was tidal surge, not the winds

Derek, I am disappointed to see that you use information from a newspaper.

We have had this discussion before and I will state my case again in regards to wind speed (category ranking) and actual damage "force factor" which no one in the meteorology world seems to want to accept:

Here's the deal in my opinion... Sustained winds and wind gusts can cause very different damage to different objects. Everyone that stayed here for Ivan has told me how much worse the winds were than Erin and Opal.

More detailed descriptions always include something like, "the wind sounded like a jet taking off and didn't stop for 2 or 3 hours". Well, when I hear those descriptions and compare them to my experience in Erin, it all makes sense. The "jet engine" sounds were with the gusts in Erin. The "jet engine" sounds were with the sustained winds during Ivan.

When you have a 90mph wind that is not gusting back and forth, but constantly putting pressure on all those trees and structures, eventually some stuff is going to give. My theory can be supported by looking at the thousands of pine trees that were not snapped by the gusts causing them to sway back and forth, but were literally bent over at mid trunk from being pushed relentlessly during the hours of sustained winds.

My point is that each hurricane cannot be measured simply with wind speed. There is a force factor that can only be measured by the destruction it causes. 90mph winds that are sustained for 2 minutes at a time will cause different damage than 90mph winds that are sustained for 14 minutes - or 1 hour. But the experts will still say that both storms were the same category.

Also, the storm surge was more like a cat 4 in many areas here, regardless of the official category ranking when the eyewall acutally crossed over the beach. I like one man's description that Ivan was like a boat with a big wake. Just because the wind speeds decreased before landfall didn't mean that the cat 4 and cat 5 wake it had built up over the previous few days was going to instantly subside.

Every tropical storm or hurricane is unique in many, many ways. The SS scale should never be referred to as the template for predictable or realized destruction.

[Opal storm]

cat 1 winds in pensacola? have you seen the damage there? i'm not talking photos, i'm asking, have you actually seen the Pensacola area? The stats may say one thing, but Pensacola got more than Cat 1 winds....

Ignore what Derek has to say about that,I don't think he really knows what he's talking about considering the fact he did not see P'cola after Ivan and was not there that night.The east side of town probably experienced only cat 1 winds since there was only severe tree damage and powerlines lying in the road and some structual damage to houses,that's a category 1.But,if you drive to the west side of town it was a very different story.Very little trees still standing,severe roof damage,every house recieved damage,some structures were completly destroyed,powerline poles snapped in half all along major roadways,widespread debris,huge advertisment signs brought to the ground.I could go on but does anything I listed fall under a category 1,no it doesn't.Also,before most of those wind instuments broke,they were already experiencing cat 1 winds and that was before the strongest part of the storm even made landfall.

[drudd1]

"EmeraldCoast1 wrote"
Every tropical storm or hurricane is unique in many, many ways. The SS scale should never be referred to as the template for predictable or realized destruction.

I couldn't agree with that statement more! While the SS scale gives a general guideline from which the Disaster Preparedness folks work from, actual history has proven that the SS scale and actual damage sustained are not always in agreement.

[Derek Ortt]

some simulations were run indicating that had Charley even had been as large as Andrew, it would have produced a 15 foot surge as far east as Ft Myers

[donsutherland1]

My views on Ivan's winds at Pensacola are as follows:

1) The sustained winds were Category 1 force. Indeed, if one examines the NHC's findings in its preliminary report on Ivan, the maximum sustained winds were:

PNS: 67 knots (72 mph)
NPA: 76 knots (87 mph)

2) Gusts reached Category 2 strength. The report reveals maximum gusts as follows:

PNS: 87 knots (100 mph)
NPA: 93 knots (107 mph)

3) However, as hurricanes are measured by their sustained winds, technically Pensacola was hit by Category 1 winds. The higher gusts might well be responsible for the damage possibly appearing greater than what one might expect from Category 1 winds.

[Opal storm]

My views on Ivan's winds at Pensacola are as follows:

1) The sustained winds were Category 1 force. Indeed, if one examines the NHC's findings in its preliminary report on Ivan, the maximum sustained winds were:

PNA: 67 knots (72 mph)
NPA: 76 knots (87 mph)

2) Gusts reached Category 2 strength. The report reveals maximum gusts as follows:

PNA: 87 knots (100 mph)
NPA: 93 knots (107 mph)

3) However, as hurricanes are measured by their sustained winds, technically Pensacola was hit by Category 1 winds. The higher gusts might well be responsible for the damage possibly appearing greater than what one might expect from Category 1 winds.

Those were the readings before the instruments broke.

[CFL]

I agree with you, Opal Storm. What concerns me about saying that Pensacola was hit with only category 1 winds during Ivan is what it might do to further evacuation efforts. People will start to panic if they think anything stronger than a category 1 is approaching, and you'll have needless evacuations of inland folks. I live right where Pensacola and Cantonment meet (well inland), and I had over $25,000 of damage from Ivan!

[EmeraldCoast1]

I agree with you, Opal Storm. What concerns me about saying that Pensacola was hit with only category 1 winds during Ivan is what it might do to further evacuation efforts. People will start to panic if they think anything stronger than a category 1 is approaching, and you'll have needless evacuations of inland folks. I live right where Pensacola and Cantonment meet (well inland), and I had over $25,000 of damage from Ivan!

Exactly.

If Ivan was representative of what a cat. 1 hurricane is all about, then Andrew would have torn the southern tip of the peninsula away from the rest of the state.

[Derek Ortt]

the sustained winds in Pensacola were only cat 1. There is ZERO evidence, except for OS's statements, which would be totally laughed at if he presented them in a scientific seminar, which is why I am trying to get everyone to not listen to him at all, because his statements are going to lead to others making the same mistake that those in Grand Lagoon made. Yes, OS, your statements may indirectly result in needless deaths if you convince people that cat 1 winds are not destructive

The winds in Opal, of similar intensity to Ivan, were weaker in Pensacola because there were not hurricane winds to the west of the storm. Opal's max winds affected the coast between Walton and Destin, and Pensacola received TS winds. Erins were of minimal cat 1 intensity.

No doubt, the sustained winds of hurricane force were MUCH longer in Ivan

The wind damage was cuased by poor construction standards

[EmeraldCoast1]

The wind damage was cuased by poor construction standards

Derek, I'm not arguing with you, but field observations are just as important if not more important than raw data.

Poor construction standards have nothing to do with multi-ton trees crashing through a roof. My next door neighbor had a 10' X 12' skylight in his roof courtesy of Ivan and a very large pine tree. Almost all of my neighbors had roof damage to some extent. I had none.

All of my neighbors have homes constructed 15-20 years ago. My home is built to new Miami-Dade code.

An argument that can certainly be made is that the shingles that made it through Erin but not through Ivan were 9 years newer in Erin. That makes a perceived difference in overall destruction and certainly affected the insured losses.

But I do want to make the point that this area had many, many more trees downed, snapped, or stripped during IVAN than during Erin. And the amazing thing about that is we had saturated grounds before and during Erin. Ivan turned out to be a pretty dry storm in the scheme of things.

Anyone who has lived here for at least 10 years will tell you that tree loss alone for Ivan was far greater than that of Erin. I am still sticking to my theory of sustained winds for much longer periods of time in Ivan is what caused the trees to finally give and wreaked havoc with many structures.

[fwbbreeze]

The wind damage was cuased by poor construction standards

Derek, I'm not arguing with you, but field observations are just as important if not more important than raw data.

Poor construction standards have nothing to do with multi-ton trees crashing through a roof. My next door neighbor had a 10' X 12' skylight in his roof courtesy of Ivan and a very large pine tree. Almost all of my neighbors had roof damage to some extent. I had none.

All of my neighbors have homes constructed 15-20 years ago. My home is built to new Miami-Dade code.

An argument that can certainly be made is that the shingles that made it through Erin but not through Ivan were 9 years newer in Erin. That makes a perceived difference in overall destruction and certainly affected the insured losses.

But I do want to make the point that this area had many, many more trees downed, snapped, or stripped during IVAN than during Erin. And the amazing thing about that is we had saturated grounds before and during Erin. Ivan turned out to be a pretty dry storm in the scheme of things.

Anyone who has lived here for at least 10 years will tell you that tree loss alone for Ivan was far greater than that of Erin. I am still sticking to my theory of sustained winds for much longer periods of time in Ivan is what caused the trees to finally give and wreaked havoc with many structures.

I totally agree with you EmeraldCoast1. Poor construction standards might have contributed to the damage but IMO was not the primary cause of the destruction. My home was built 3 years ago and sustained substantial roof damage due to sustained winds and flying debris...not poor building standards.

fwbbreeze

[Derek Ortt]

we also must remember that Erin's hurricane force winds were only in the eye wall, with the cat 2 winds being restricted to the immediate beach areas. Structures in the cat 2 zone were totally destroyed from the winds in Erin, I did not see this in Ivan, though the wind damage was far more widespread as hurricane winds extended well away from the center

I would like to see a scale be able to take duration of the winds into consideration as well, as duration is just as important as intensity in a hgih wind regime

[donsutherland1]

Opal storm,

I went to the NWSFO Mobile/Pensacola website and read its report on Ivan. It shows maximum gusts as follows:

PNS: 101 mph (1:50 am and no data afterward)
NPA: 107 mph (1:38 am but no reference to failure)

The Airport (PNS) is located to the northeast of the Naval Station (NPA). Therefore, it would not be surprising that PNS recorded its highest wind gust later than NPA. Moreover, it would be somewhat surprising, given Ivan's track, if PNS were to have recorded stronger winds than the maximum winds recorded at NPA where there is no reference that the instruments failed.

Thus, unless better information becomes available, to me it appears that Pensacola experienced sustained winds consistent with a Category 1 hurricane even though gusts were higher.

[EmeraldCoast1]

I would like to see a scale be able to take duration of the winds into consideration as well, as duration is just as important as intensity in a hgih wind regime

I TOTALLY AGREE!!!

Please push this among your peers, do a thesis, make it reality.

It can be called the OSOWID Scale: Ortt-Scale Of Wind Intensity Duration...or whatever.

It's like this...A given location could have 2 measured inches of rain on a given day. If that rain fell over 20 hours it would be a heavy, soaking rain but if that 2 inches fell in 40 minutes, it would be a mini-disaster. Either way, for the record, that day would still reflect 2 inches of rain.

Not every cat. 1 hurricane can be put in a classifciation with all other cat. 1's.

I'm hope we can all agree on this.

[Huckster]

we also must remember that Erin's hurricane force winds were only in the eye wall, with the cat 2 winds being restricted to the immediate beach areas. Structures in the cat 2 zone were totally destroyed from the winds in Erin, I did not see this in Ivan, though the wind damage was far more widespread as hurricane winds extended well away from the center

I would like to see a scale be able to take duration of the winds into consideration as well, as duration is just as important as intensity in a hgih wind regime

I think these are very good points, but I cannot say I've really got any good ideas on how the scale would look. The SS Scale seems too rigid. This has caused some serious misconceptions about hurricane intensity. When you woodenly read that scale, it can be difficult, especially for a hurricane novice, to understand exactly what it's trying to say. Let's say a "minimal" hurricane is heading toward a given location. Someone might think, "Oh, sustained winds of 80 mph? We can handle that with no problem. Afterall, there were reports of 70 mph wind gusts earlier this year with that big squall line, etc." What people are not realizing is that should 80 mph sustained winds occur in that spot, there are going to be hours and hours of lesser but still very strong winds before that, and if 80 mph sustained winds actually do occur, the gusts could potentially be 20 or 30 mph higher than that. The SS Scale does not seem to address this issue, and the damage described by each category does not, especially for the lower categories necessarily match with what actually happens. It simply does not address the duration of these winds, and the storm surge guidelines it gives do not at all take into account the particular geography of a given region. That's why it's important for people to listen to the official advice and evacuate if they're told to do so. Guessing how high you think the wind was for some certain storm and then trying to match it with the SS Scale and assuming you're safe could be very dangerous.

[Opal storm]

we also must remember that Erin's hurricane force winds were only in the eye wall, with the cat 2 winds being restricted to the immediate beach areas. Structures in the cat 2 zone were totally destroyed from the winds in Erin, I did not see this in Ivan, though the wind damage was far more widespread as hurricane winds extended well away from the center

I would like to see a scale be able to take duration of the winds into consideration as well, as duration is just as important as intensity in a hgih wind regime

Derek,those houses were destroyed by storm surge,not the wind.

[StormChasr]

If a cat 4 actually was able to sustain energy and make it up to New York, that would undoubtedly be the biggest financial disaster of all time. Greater New York probably has the highest real estate values in the country (even including California), and a disaster like that from an economic standpoint would be unequaled.