Make up your mind scientists or at least get on the same page!
Good News for South florida this Year?
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cyclonaut
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SouthernWx
cyclonaut wrote:Some people say South Fla is safe others say watch out...
Make up your mind scientists or at least get on the same page!
If I lived in an area (Florida peninsula) of America where the return period of a landfalling major hurricane was once every four years....and where 6 of the 8 most intense U.S. hurricanes of record had struck since 1846, I'd watch out and be prepared this season, next season; in every hurricane season.
Just my 0.02¢ worth...
Perry
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feederband
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Well I just flipped a coin it landed on heads so we should have a land falling Hurricane in Florida......There you go scientific proof.
DISCLAIMER---------THIS FORCAST IS NOT A OFFICIAL PRODUCT OF ANY WEATHER SERVICE. OR BY ANY WISHCAST PRODUCTS . THIS SCIENTIFIC RESULT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY ACTIONS BY YOU. YOU SHOULD BREATH ,EAT,AND SLEEP THE SAME WAY YOU HAVE BEEN. ALSO YOU SHOULD KNOW I FLIPPED THE COIN 5 TIMES AND GOT THE SAME RESULT EACH TIME. OH AND BY THE WAY THE WORD SCIENTIFIC IN THIS STUDY SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT...
DISCLAIMER---------THIS FORCAST IS NOT A OFFICIAL PRODUCT OF ANY WEATHER SERVICE. OR BY ANY WISHCAST PRODUCTS . THIS SCIENTIFIC RESULT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY ACTIONS BY YOU. YOU SHOULD BREATH ,EAT,AND SLEEP THE SAME WAY YOU HAVE BEEN. ALSO YOU SHOULD KNOW I FLIPPED THE COIN 5 TIMES AND GOT THE SAME RESULT EACH TIME. OH AND BY THE WAY THE WORD SCIENTIFIC IN THIS STUDY SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT...
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cyclonaut
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feederband
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But if there's a bright side to the season, it comes from a rainy May. Jim Lushine, a senior meteorologist with the weather service office west of Miami, has studied 75 years of monthly rainfall statistics and found that the rainier the month of May, the fewer hurricanes hit Florida.
This year, May had sufficient rain to predict fewer hits. For Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, the average yearly rainfall is five inches. The month just past, thanks to some last-minute thunderstorms, saw 5.9 inches.
"As the raindrops fall, so do the chances of a South Florida hurricane," Lushine said. "We're about three times as wet this May as we were last year, and that's a nice feeling."
May's rains, Lushine found, indicate the power of the Bermuda High, a high-pressure area over the ocean that, depending on its strength, can push a hurricane toward or away from the state. A lot of rain means the system is weak; a dry May indicates the Bermuda High will be strong enough to push a hurricane toward South Florida.
For example, Lushine said, the second-driest May on record was in 1992 -- when Hurricane Andrew ravaged the state.
Lushine said he's so confident of the rainfall indicator that he's postponing a retirement in which he will live in Alaska part time. "I'll be here for what I think will be a real quiet season," he said. "I'm betting a few months of my retirement time on it."
Compare this article to one from July 9, 2004 in the Miami Herald. Here is an exerpt from it....
Miami Herald, The (FL)
July 9, 2004
Section: Metro & State
Edition: Final
Page: 1B
SYSTEM THAT'S BAKING S. FLORIDA COULD AIM HURRICANE RIGHT AT US
MARTIN MERZER, ADJOA ADOFO AND KARL ROSS, mmerzer@herald.com
You don't need us to tell you it's hot out there, even for South Florida in July. But here's something you may not know - and may not want to know: The same phenomenon that is drenching you in sweat and sparking wildfires is beginning to worry hurricane experts.
The primary culprit is a high pressure system that has been stubbornly anchored off South Florida's coast.
Now, it is suppressing rain and elevating temperatures. Later, if it remains in the same general location, it could drive hurricanes toward us instead of away from us.
``If it stays right where it is now, we're in deep trouble,'' Jim Lushine, the National Weather Service's severe-weather expert for South Florida, said Thursday.
How deep? Well, put it this way: Lushine, who lives in Pembroke Pines, has been hurrying to complete roof repairs - enduring heat that is bringing misery to South Floridians and has tied or approached record levels.
``We're sweating through the oldies,'' Lushine said.
LOL....Lushine was so sure Florida was going to be hit in 2004, he rushed to complete roof repairs. This year, he is so sure Florida is NOT going to get slammed with hurricanes, that he's put off his retirement!!
Maybe he is on to something after all....
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cyclonaut
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StormChasr
The way to prevent landfalling hurricanes in South Florida is to make them wear white pants, and tennis shoes, polo shirts, and straw hats. Also, they have to eat dinner at 4 PM for the "early bird." That is a sure way to prevent hurricanes in So. Florida.
Alternative--make them eat at Wolfies.
Alternative--make them eat at Wolfies.
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cyclonaut
How can someone say that they feel safe if you live in a place like South Florida & the entire season ahead with 12 - 15 NS,9 hurricanes or so & 3 - 5 of them being major.How freakin irresponsible & of a scientist no less.The average Joe reads this & sees that a scientist says & I quote...
To me its foolish & superstitious,not to mention senile to make such statements.Its one thing to heighten peoples sense of awareness & its another thing to make people complacent with comments like that.
As the raindrops fall, so do the chances of a South Florida hurricane,". "We're about three times as wet this May as we were last year, and that's a nice feeling."
To me its foolish & superstitious,not to mention senile to make such statements.Its one thing to heighten peoples sense of awareness & its another thing to make people complacent with comments like that.
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HurricaneJoe22
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Florida's storm fate up in the air
The steering currents that drove four hurricanes to Florida last year might be weaker this year, but we are not off the hook.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@herald.com
Both maps of the atmosphere seem esoteric, but they chart dramatically different hurricane highways -- and point to dramatically different possibilities for Florida -- as a new hurricane season begins today.
One map illustrates atmospheric steering currents that head west below Jamaica and Cuba, carrying vicious, Atlantic-born storms away from us. This was the average pattern between 1995 and 2003.
The other atmospheric highway bends sharply northward, carrying these killer storms directly at us. This was the dominant pattern last August and September, when four hurricanes assaulted Florida within six weeks.
Which map will prove accurate this year?
Maybe neither, though Florida may fare better than it did last year.
''It's looking like it might be an in-between year,'' said Jim Lushine, the National Weather Service's severe weather expert for South Florida. ``There will be threats, actual threats, but whether they materialize -- we won't know that until a few days before the fact.''
What is known is that the hurricane production factories in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to work overtime this year -- just as they have during nearly every year since 1995.
Government researchers are predicting 12 to 15 tropical storms that grow into seven to nine hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes are likely to become intense, with winds above 110 mph.
Private researcher Bill Gray issued an updated forecast Tuesday that predicts 15 tropical storms that become eight hurricanes, four of them intense.
Last year, 15 named storms became nine hurricanes, six of them intense.
''Here we go again,'' said retired Brig. Gen. David Johnson, director of the National Weather Service.
Said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ``We are seeing the same types of climatic conditions setting up for this year and we expect that cycle to continue.''
THE TWO MAPS
Given that, the main question becomes: How bad will it be for Florida?
And that leads us back to those two maps, produced by NOAA's researchers, that show starkly different hurricane highways.
''It doesn't really matter how many storms are out there,'' Lushine said. ``What matters are the steering currents.''
Both maps show contours that chart powerful air currents between 15,000 and 20,000 feet above the surface. These are the forces that most strongly steer hurricanes.
MOUNTAINS OF AIR
Think of them as mountains of air -- meteorologists call them high-pressure systems -- that can block the progress of hurricanes and force them to find paths along the periphery of the atmospheric ''mountains'' or sometimes through valley-like weaknesses.
'If there's a break, the hurricane can `feel' the break and sometimes come up through it,'' Lushine said.
The challenge for forecasters is to detect, analyze and forecast the shape, position and weaknesses of these high pressure systems.
In general, storms tend not to cross the contour lines illustrated on the maps. Instead, they tend to move parallel to them.
The 1995-2003 graphic shows that the average pattern during that lengthy period tended to steer storms away from Florida.
Daily variations occurred -- occasions when the pattern changed, a storm could break through and head north toward Florida or the rest of the U.S. Southeast coast or into the remote Atlantic.
But, for the most part, this pattern shielded Florida during the first nine years of the current, lengthy period of above-average hurricane production.
DIFFERENCE IN 2004
Last August and September, it all changed.
A shift in the location of a high-pressure system known as the Bermuda High contributed to a dramatic alteration in the pattern. As a result, the contour line on a typical day ran straight toward Florida and right along the state's east coast.
Again, daily variations influenced the precise path of each of the four hurricanes that hit us, but the state's fate was sealed -- the storms had little option but to follow that contour.
This year, experts say, the pattern could be less distinct, which would be good news -- we're unlikely to be struck by four hurricanes -- but does not let us off the hook.
MANY CHANGES
That atmospheric ridge that ran along Florida's east coast last August and September is expected to remain in the general neighborhood, but often in weakened form.
Depending on daily variations, this could channel storms toward our west, toward our east or right over us.
''The thing changes monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, secondly,'' Lushine said. ``It just changes all the time.''
So, though other factors also enter into the complex calculus of hurricane forecasting -- where the storm forms, the potency of crosswinds that can destroy a storm, pockets of unusually warm or cool ocean water that affect the storm's intensity -- meteorologists will be devoting much of their attention to that ridge.
''No one can tell where it will be,'' said forecaster Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``We just have to wait and see.''
The steering currents that drove four hurricanes to Florida last year might be weaker this year, but we are not off the hook.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@herald.com
Both maps of the atmosphere seem esoteric, but they chart dramatically different hurricane highways -- and point to dramatically different possibilities for Florida -- as a new hurricane season begins today.
One map illustrates atmospheric steering currents that head west below Jamaica and Cuba, carrying vicious, Atlantic-born storms away from us. This was the average pattern between 1995 and 2003.
The other atmospheric highway bends sharply northward, carrying these killer storms directly at us. This was the dominant pattern last August and September, when four hurricanes assaulted Florida within six weeks.
Which map will prove accurate this year?
Maybe neither, though Florida may fare better than it did last year.
''It's looking like it might be an in-between year,'' said Jim Lushine, the National Weather Service's severe weather expert for South Florida. ``There will be threats, actual threats, but whether they materialize -- we won't know that until a few days before the fact.''
What is known is that the hurricane production factories in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to work overtime this year -- just as they have during nearly every year since 1995.
Government researchers are predicting 12 to 15 tropical storms that grow into seven to nine hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes are likely to become intense, with winds above 110 mph.
Private researcher Bill Gray issued an updated forecast Tuesday that predicts 15 tropical storms that become eight hurricanes, four of them intense.
Last year, 15 named storms became nine hurricanes, six of them intense.
''Here we go again,'' said retired Brig. Gen. David Johnson, director of the National Weather Service.
Said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ``We are seeing the same types of climatic conditions setting up for this year and we expect that cycle to continue.''
THE TWO MAPS
Given that, the main question becomes: How bad will it be for Florida?
And that leads us back to those two maps, produced by NOAA's researchers, that show starkly different hurricane highways.
''It doesn't really matter how many storms are out there,'' Lushine said. ``What matters are the steering currents.''
Both maps show contours that chart powerful air currents between 15,000 and 20,000 feet above the surface. These are the forces that most strongly steer hurricanes.
MOUNTAINS OF AIR
Think of them as mountains of air -- meteorologists call them high-pressure systems -- that can block the progress of hurricanes and force them to find paths along the periphery of the atmospheric ''mountains'' or sometimes through valley-like weaknesses.
'If there's a break, the hurricane can `feel' the break and sometimes come up through it,'' Lushine said.
The challenge for forecasters is to detect, analyze and forecast the shape, position and weaknesses of these high pressure systems.
In general, storms tend not to cross the contour lines illustrated on the maps. Instead, they tend to move parallel to them.
The 1995-2003 graphic shows that the average pattern during that lengthy period tended to steer storms away from Florida.
Daily variations occurred -- occasions when the pattern changed, a storm could break through and head north toward Florida or the rest of the U.S. Southeast coast or into the remote Atlantic.
But, for the most part, this pattern shielded Florida during the first nine years of the current, lengthy period of above-average hurricane production.
DIFFERENCE IN 2004
Last August and September, it all changed.
A shift in the location of a high-pressure system known as the Bermuda High contributed to a dramatic alteration in the pattern. As a result, the contour line on a typical day ran straight toward Florida and right along the state's east coast.
Again, daily variations influenced the precise path of each of the four hurricanes that hit us, but the state's fate was sealed -- the storms had little option but to follow that contour.
This year, experts say, the pattern could be less distinct, which would be good news -- we're unlikely to be struck by four hurricanes -- but does not let us off the hook.
MANY CHANGES
That atmospheric ridge that ran along Florida's east coast last August and September is expected to remain in the general neighborhood, but often in weakened form.
Depending on daily variations, this could channel storms toward our west, toward our east or right over us.
''The thing changes monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, secondly,'' Lushine said. ``It just changes all the time.''
So, though other factors also enter into the complex calculus of hurricane forecasting -- where the storm forms, the potency of crosswinds that can destroy a storm, pockets of unusually warm or cool ocean water that affect the storm's intensity -- meteorologists will be devoting much of their attention to that ridge.
''No one can tell where it will be,'' said forecaster Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``We just have to wait and see.''
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HurricaneJoe22
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SouthernWx
Even if Mr Lushine's theory is foolproof forecasting Cape Verde hurricanes in August/ September (which IMO it isn't); what about late season major hurricanes coming up from the western Caribbean?
I know it hasn't happened in a long time (landfalling major SoFla October cane), but historically October is the 2nd most dangerous month for southern Florida.....between 1845 and 1950, there were major hurricanes striking south Florida in October once every decade on average...including several very destructive and deadly hurricanes (Oct 1944, Oct 1906, Oct 1921, Oct 1846).
In all honesty, regardless of where the Bermuda High is centered during late August and early September, it's not going to be there stationary in mid-October....a time when major hurricanes are steered toward or away from Florida by strong troughs. Historically, sometimes a major hurricane will meander around slowly in the Caribbean for days, then accelerate north or NE in response to a new digging trough (i.e Oct 1944), similar to how Opal raced toward the Gulf coast in 1995.
In this situation, timing is the key....why Michelle (2001) and Lili (1996) missed Florida but the major hurricanes of 1921, 1944, and King in 1950 didn't.
Jeanne was the first major landfalling September hurricane onto the Florida peninsula since Betsy in 65'.....38 yrs.
We haven't seen a major October hurricane make landfall in south Florida since 1950....before my birth. It's well past the normal return period for a big October cane, and the rainfall in May means nothing regarding how late season canes will move....absolutely nothing.
PW
I know it hasn't happened in a long time (landfalling major SoFla October cane), but historically October is the 2nd most dangerous month for southern Florida.....between 1845 and 1950, there were major hurricanes striking south Florida in October once every decade on average...including several very destructive and deadly hurricanes (Oct 1944, Oct 1906, Oct 1921, Oct 1846).
In all honesty, regardless of where the Bermuda High is centered during late August and early September, it's not going to be there stationary in mid-October....a time when major hurricanes are steered toward or away from Florida by strong troughs. Historically, sometimes a major hurricane will meander around slowly in the Caribbean for days, then accelerate north or NE in response to a new digging trough (i.e Oct 1944), similar to how Opal raced toward the Gulf coast in 1995.
In this situation, timing is the key....why Michelle (2001) and Lili (1996) missed Florida but the major hurricanes of 1921, 1944, and King in 1950 didn't.
Jeanne was the first major landfalling September hurricane onto the Florida peninsula since Betsy in 65'.....38 yrs.
We haven't seen a major October hurricane make landfall in south Florida since 1950....before my birth. It's well past the normal return period for a big October cane, and the rainfall in May means nothing regarding how late season canes will move....absolutely nothing.
PW
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