Blob at caribbean

[jabber]

Concerning our blob, looks to be a wet Wednesday in S. Fl

'
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT OVR NRN GULFMEX WILL MOVE SE
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD TOWARD
YUCATAN. THIS WILL BRING BOTH SYSTEMS IN PHASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TONIGHT THEREBY INCREASING LOW LVL CONFLUENCE OVR S. FL.
MID/UPPR LVL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPR TROUGH AND LARGE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTED NWD FROM WRN CARIB WILL COMBINE WITH SFC BOUNDARY
TO RESULT IN SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS S. FL THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. GFS MAY
BE OVERDOING IT A LITTLE BY DEVELOPING A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND GIVING US POP > 70%...NOT TO MENTION STRONG WINDS. I
DON'T RULE OUT A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AFTER ALL,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT THAT UNFAVORABLE...BUT I THINK GFS IS TOO
FAST/TOO STRONG. IN ANY CASE...I'AM NOT BASING MY FORECAST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BUT ON THE FACT OF HAVING A LOW LVL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECTED MID/UPPR LEVEL CONDITIONS. SO, I WILL
INCREASE POPS GRADUALLY STARTING TONIGHT WITH MAX POPS DURING
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.