Tropical Cyclones Vivienne & Ex-Harvey

[senorpepr]

Is there a chance Harvey might reach hurricane strength?

It depends on how you talk to. JTWC says no. BoM (when converted to US-standard of one-minute winds) is already saying Harvey is a hurricane. However, Harvey looks much too small to be a hurricane, but BoM is the official word.

[HURAKAN]

Is there a chance Harvey might reach hurricane strength?

HurricaneBill, I wouldn't bet any money on it but certainly there is a small possibility on that happening. If Harvey slows down a little bit, then the story could be different and your question could become a reality.

[senorpepr]

More strengthening...

IDQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: TRANSMITTERS SERVING THE QUEENSLAND AREA BETWEEN KARUMBA AND THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY BORDER ARE REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING
SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 12:54pm on Monday the 7th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

At 12:40 pm EST [12:10 pm CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey, category 3, with
central pressure 970 hPa, was centred near latitude 15.9 south longitude 138.4
east, which is about 110 km northwest of Mornington Island. The cyclone has
recently been moving towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the coast
and intensify. Gales are expected on Mornington Island, and to develop about
other coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur later in
the day.

Residents of Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up
to a level significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and flooding
of low lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible.

Dangerous storm tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline, particularly between Burketown and Karumba.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE, Category 3, for 12:40 pm EST / 12:10 pm CST
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.9 degrees south
longitude 138.4 degrees east
about 110 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 20 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 190 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST]
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST]

Gusts up to 135mph. (190 km/h / 1.609 = 118 mph 10-min avg * 1.14 = 135mph 1-min avg)

The 40% rule that BoM observes to convert gusts to sustained would estimate 80 mph. (1-min avg)

[HURAKAN]

Is there a chance Harvey might reach hurricane strength?

It depends on how you talk to. JTWC says no. BoM (when converted to US-standard of one-minute winds) is already saying Harvey is a hurricane. However, Harvey looks much too small to be a hurricane, but BoM is the official word.

senorpepr, BoM says that the gusts of Harvey already reach hurricane intensity, exactly 140 kilometers per hour or 90 mph.

From BoM:
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

[senorpepr]

From BoM:
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

Actually that's a bit old,

Maximum wind gusts : 190 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

Here's the math.

190 km/h for gusts.
Divide by 1.609 for mph ---> 118 mph (using a 10-min avg)
Subtract 40% (BoM figures gusts to be 40% higher than the sustained speed) ---> 71 mph
Multiply by 1.14 to convert from 10-min to 1-min avg ---> 81 mph.

Regardless, BoM says he's a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

From BoM:
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

Actually that's a bit old,

Maximum wind gusts : 190 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

Here's the math.

190 km/h for gusts.
Divide by 1.609 for mph ---> 118 mph (using a 10-min avg)
Subtract 40% (BoM figures gusts to be 40% higher than the sustained speed) ---> 71 mph
Multiply by 1.14 to convert from 10-min to 1-min avg ---> 81 mph.

Regardless, BoM says he's a hurricane.

The new information does convince me, the water should be very choppy in the area considering the geography/topography of the gulf.

[senorpepr]

I agree the water should be choppy. I know that BoM is the official word when it comes to Harvey, but if this little thing is a hurricane -- wow -- that's one little 'cane.

[HURAKAN]

TC 17S forms to the west of the NW coast of Australia, movement should be very erratically in the days, and it should be named "Vivienne" in the next 24 hours if it intensifies as forecasted.

[Andrew92]

I agree the water should be choppy. I know that BoM is the official word when it comes to Harvey, but if this little thing is a hurricane -- wow -- that's one little 'cane.

Just wait 'til he comes to the Atlantic though! Will he still be tiny then, or a full-blown monster?

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

The latest Dvorak estimates:

07/0225 UTC 15.8S 138.6E T3.5/3.5 HARVEY -- South Pacific Ocean

According to Dvorak, it's very close to hurricane intensity.

[HURAKAN]

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:23pm on Monday the 7th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

At 2:00 pm EST [1:30 pm CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey, category 3, with
central pressure 970 hPa, was centred near latitude 16.2 south longitude 138.2
east, which is about 125 km north northeast of Wollogorang in the Northern
Territory and 120 km west northwest of Mornington Island in Queensland. The
cyclone has recently been moving towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the coast
and continue to strengthen. Very destructive winds should be experienced on the
coast near the NT and QLD border within the next few hours, and destructive
winds could extend inland to settlements such as Wollogorang by early this
evening. Gales are expected on Mornington Island, and to develop about other
coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur later in the
day.

Residents between [and including] Wollogorang in the Northern Territory and
Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the
cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level
significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and flooding of low
lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible.

Dangerous storm tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline, particularly between Burketown and Karumba.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE, Category 3, for 2:00 pm EST / 1:30 pm CST
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 16.2 degrees south
longitude 138.2 degrees east
about 110 kilometres west northwest of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the southwest at 15 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 60 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 20 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 190 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 4 pm EST [3:30 pm CST]


If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from

your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 3 pm EST [2:30 pm CST]

[HurricaneBill]

I agree the water should be choppy. I know that BoM is the official word when it comes to Harvey, but if this little thing is a hurricane -- wow -- that's one little 'cane.

Remember Cyclone Tracy?

[senorpepr]

Remember Cyclone Tracy?

Good call!

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Monday 7 February 2005

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
MORNINGTON ISLAND in Queensland and PORT MCARTHUR in the Northern Territory,
including BORROLOOLA, in the Northern Territory and extending about 200
kilometres inland, including WOLLOGORANG and ROBINSON RIVER.

At 7 pm CST [7:30 pm EST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY, CATEGORY 3, with
central pressure 970 hPa, was centred over land about 65 kilometres east
northeast of ROBINSON RIVER and 90 kilometres north northwest of WOLLOGORANG in
the Northern Territory. The cyclone is moving towards the southwest at 15
kilometres per hour.

The very destructive core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey has crossed the
coast. Destructive winds could extend inland to settlements such as Robinson
River during the next few hours. Gales are currently being experienced about the
coast.

Dangerous storm tides in low lying coastal areas between ROBINSON RIVER in the
Northern Territory and MORNINGTON ISLAND in Queensland. The sea is likely to
peak at a level significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and
flooding of low lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed
northwest coast of MORNINGTON ISLAND damaging waves will also contribute to the
flooding. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause FLOODING of low lying areas in the Roper-McArthur
district overnight and during Tuesday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY at 7 pm CST [7:30 pm EST]:
. Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 200 km/hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 3
. Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities between PORT MCARTHUR
[including BORROLOOLA] in the Northern Territory and MORNINGTON ISLAND in
Queensland, and extending about 200 kilometres inland.

The next advice which will be issued at 11pm CST [11:30pm EST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

The previous warning had gusts at 220kph. (965hPa)

[HURAKAN]

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:02pm on Monday the 7th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
Mornington Island in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory,
including Borroloola and Robinson River in the Northern Territory.

At 5:40 pm EST [5:10 pm CST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey, category 3, with
central pressure 965 hPa, was centred near latitude 16.5 south longitude 137.7
east, which is about 80 km northeast of Robinson River and 90 km north northwest
of Wollogorang in the Northern Territory. The cyclone has moved towards the
southwest during the past few hours at 13 km/hr.

The very destructive core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Harvey crossed the coast
near the NT and QLD border during the past hour. Destructive winds could extend
inland to settlements such as Robinson River and Wollogorang during the next few
hours. Gales are currently being experienced on Mornington Island.

Dangerous storm tides may currently be in low lying coastal areas between
Robinson River in the Northern Territory and Mornington Island in Queensland.
The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level significantly above the normal
tide with strong currents and flooding of low lying areas extending some way
inland. Along the exposed northwest coast of Mornington Island damaging waves
will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible. Higher than normal tides are also expected elsewhere around the
eastern and southern Gulf coastline from Burketown to Karumba.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE, Category 3, for 5:40 pm EST / 5:10 pm CST
Central Pressure : 965 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 16.5 degrees south
longitude 137.7 degrees east
about 80 kilometres northeast of Robinson River .
Recent Movement : towards the southwest at 13 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 70 kilometres from the centre
Very destructive winds: out to 25 kilometres from the centre.
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour.

People between Mornington Island in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern
Territory [including Borroloola and Robinson River in the Northern Territory]
should take precautions and listen to the next advice which will be issued by
the Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at 8 pm CST [8:30 pm EST]

I just put the old advisory to mention that the cyclone got really close to being a Cat. 4 under BoM standards, 225 k/ph is the minimum for Cat. 4.

[HurricaneBill]

JTWC has the storm at sustained winds of 50 knots.

If the highest gusts are around 220 km/h, that equals around 137 mph.

50 knots = 58 mph

A storm with sustained winds of 58 mph producing 137 mph gusts does not seem right. Especially with a pressure of 965 mb.

According to the Dvorak scale, a Pacific cyclone with a pressure of 965 mb should be about Category 1-2 on the SS scale.

Is JTWC underestimating Harvey or am I missing something here?

[HURAKAN]

Shear hasn't allow this system to develop much from 40 mph, and the future is not promising. BoM hasn't upgrade this system yet to Vivienne and it looks less possible today than yesterday.

[P.K.]

JTWC has the storm at sustained winds of 50 knots.

If the highest gusts are around 220 km/h, that equals around 137 mph.

50 knots = 58 mph

A storm with sustained winds of 58 mph producing 137 mph gusts does not seem right. Especially with a pressure of 965 mb.

According to the Dvorak scale, a Pacific cyclone with a pressure of 965 mb should be about Category 1-2 on the SS scale.

Is JTWC underestimating Harvey or am I missing something here?

I thought gusts were around 40% stronger than sustained winds for these sort of systems? Those do seem very high gusts given the sustained winds given by the JTWC.

[krysof]

do u guys talk about eastern pacific hurricanes

[HURAKAN]

do u guys talk about eastern pacific hurricanes

krysof, we talk about everything that has to do with tropical cyclones around the world, but as you may know, the eastern pacific and atlantic are off at this time of the year, but don't worry. Here, everyone is waiting for May 15 for the EPAC and June 1 for the Atlantic. Usually, this board has an extensive coverage and I would say, the best experts about hurricanes when the Atlantic is active. When we refer to other basins there is always a sense of misinformation from the agencies that reports the advisories since their technology unfortunately is not like the one we enjoy for the Atlantic and EPAC. Also, here you will always find information about tropical cyclones that are still undeveloped, I mean, we usually begin to track systems when they are just disturbances, and are "captured" by NRL as Invests. Furthermore, during the "off-time" of the Atlantic Ocean we are always keeping an eye on extratropical lows that make their way very close to the subtropics or tropics and could pose a threat for "tropicalization" or become warm-core. Our experts are always trying to bring the latest information about tropical systems are quickly as possible, and post it in this board. This board works like the National Hurricane Center, but no one gets paid!

Enjoy, we are always busy, except for some days that the tropics worldwide take a nap!