5AM advisory..... NHC TRACK ADJUSTED SOUTH!

[mobilebay]

I'm sorry I said something bad about the great ortt. However, when you say that it is a good thing to be in the 5 day forecast path. I have to challenge it, I don't care who his friends are.

[jlauderdal]

I'm sorry I said something bad about the great ortt. However, when you say that it is a good thing to be in the 5 day forecast path. I have to challenge it, I don't care who his friends are.

i just spoke to ortt and he says he is just kinda great or real good but not great...greatness is reserved for the greatonw who i believe is JB. ..LOL. no problem with your challenge at all..i have done plenty myself the last two days with more to come. at least we have explained why he said what he said and hopefully you undersyand it now too. we;; hopefully you guys on the north gulf coast dont have to deal with this cane..you have had your share hte last few years or at least threats.

[mobilebay]

I'm sorry I said something bad about the great ortt. However, when you say that it is a good thing to be in the 5 day forecast path. I have to challenge it, I don't care who his friends are.

i just spoke to ortt and he says he is just kinda great or real good but not great...greatness is reserved for the greatonw who i believe is JB. ..LOL. no problem with your challenge at all..i have done plenty myself the last two days with more to come. at least we have explained why he said what he said and hopefully you undersyand it now too. we;; hopefully you guys on the north gulf coast dont have to deal with this cane..you have had your share hte last few years or at least threats.

Thanks Jlauderdale. I believe the NHC is correct with this cane. I see it somewhere between the Keys and Daytona next week, then into the Gulf. Just my 2 cents. I'm not trying to be a homer but the longer this goes the worse feeling I'm getting.

[ColdFront77]

ok lets end this. first of all nhc says 5 dya track has error of 300 miles so based on that you would be in good shape. second, it has become a south florida thing to want to be on the 5 day track because we have been so many times and we avoid getting hit which is what we want. ortt is not bashing nhc..he has friends over there.

All I am saying is I believe that is what Derek is referring to.

[Nimbus]

Now that Frances has a larger eye to ventilate, she may have a much larger windfield when she reintensifies. The zonal flow is really evident in the water vapor imagery this morning all the way to Chaba!

We should be able to verify the track by late today and I'm sure every 10th of a degree gained in latitude will be cause for celebration by the islanders.

[jlauderdal]

I'm sorry I said something bad about the great ortt. However, when you say that it is a good thing to be in the 5 day forecast path. I have to challenge it, I don't care who his friends are.

i just spoke to ortt and he says he is just kinda great or real good but not great...greatness is reserved for the greatonw who i believe is JB. ..LOL. no problem with your challenge at all..i have done plenty myself the last two days with more to come. at least we have explained why he said what he said and hopefully you undersyand it now too. we;; hopefully you guys on the north gulf coast dont have to deal with this cane..you have had your share hte last few years or at least threats.

Thanks Jlauderdale. I believe the NHC is correct with this cane. I see it somewhere between the Keys and Daytona next week, then into the Gulf. Just my 2 cents. I'm not trying to be a homer but the longer this goes the worse feeling I'm getting.

yeah, they keys todaytona is jlauderdals cone too. I have a trip planned to the lovely key west for labor day weekend woth some friends since my wife and baby are out of town so the ? will be do i go there to escape frances or stay here to escape freances or go either place to chase frances.

[Hurricane Cheese]

It will be REALLY interesting to see what the models, etc look like in about 12-18 hours.

Each day draws closer to pinpointing what Frances is going to do.

Certainly time to be getting ready on the FL coast...don't want the supplies to run out!

[TLHR]

Ladies, ladies...please...

Have you forgotten Floyd's path already??
Floyd was absolutely, positively going to hit Florida.
Then, just as we saw recently with Charley, it hooked to the right.

Not that I'm wishing a hurricane on the Carolinas, especially after the drenching we're gonna get from TD 7, but my gut feeling is that Miami will be spared.

My money is on Jacksonville to Wilmington.

[Lowpressure]

I don't like the last line! They are going with the GFS model !NOT GOOD

This is just a question, but did the GFS become a much more reliable model recently or am I missing something. The GFS is usually laughed at or discounted as being not very good. This board even has acronyms for this model.

[Windsong]

if miami is ever the landfall point at 5 days, then we are the safest place in the usa to be

I don't see how you can bash the NHC 5 day forecast like this. Their 5 Day track with Charley was great. I guess I need to delete the NHC website from my favorites and put yours there since you know everything.

Chill JC. It's going to be a long week with lots of late nights. And just for the record, (you can check the past posts) Derek is NOT a NHC basher. and...he DOES know more than most. Have a cup of coffee and relax, okay?

[sprink52]

On Labor Day.."There's somthing about this Monday it's a most peculier grey Strolin' down the avenue thats known as A1A" "It's time to close the shutters, it's time to go inside"

Time to get the Hurricane box back out and start making preliminary arrangements. We can handle the storm, we have apoured concrete 260 MPH rated home. I just don't look forward to the aftermath. We are watching CLOSELY!!

[chris_fit]

It's time to go inside" "Strolin' down the avenue thats known as A1A"

Time to get the Hurricane box back out and start making preliminary arrangements. We can handle the storm, we have apoured concrete 260 MPH rated home. I just don't look forward to the aftermath. We are watching CLOSELY!!

Have the tested that 260mph home?

[PTPatrick]

Ladies, ladies...please...

Have you forgotten Floyd's path already??
Floyd was absolutely, positively going to hit Florida.
Then, just as we saw recently with Charley, it hooked to the right.

Not that I'm wishing a hurricane on the Carolinas, especially after the drenching we're gonna get from TD 7, but my gut feeling is that Miami will be spared.

My money is on Jacksonville to Wilmington.

I disagree...About Floyd, I dont think the NHC really ever was sure that Floyd would hit FL. It seemed like for days that they were forecasting a turn and they didnt get antsy until it started looking to late. The evacuations and stuff, if I remember correctly were NOT because they were sure there was going to be a landfall, but that it would a close one, and perhaps ride just off the coast.

Charleys hooking right also bears little resemblance to anything Frances would do. That hook right, in the grand scheme of things was but a few degrees, that just happened to make a big difference in damage. Charely hardly made a drastic change in direction, like Frances would have to do if she were to get into the bahamas still heading on W to WNW track. And in terms of storms always turning, it would seem to me, there are plenty of examples of both. For instance Georges wasnt forecast to get into the gulf...when it was over PR, it was still supposed to go east of FL. Floyd did turn. Andrew barreled through FL. Point being, anything can happen this point, and I would say that nobody from Texas on around to the Mid Atlantic is safe from this one.

[sprink52]

Yes indeed. All assembies were tested and certified by the Hurricane wind testing facility in Miami and West Palm Beach. Walls are 6" thick steel reinforced 4000 PSI concrete with rolled section structural iron ties for the roof trusses. There are no gables, the roof is hipped in all directions. The roof deck is tripple fastened with extra long "Gripper Nails".The roof is clay tile(no shingles). The walls will stop a .44 Magnum bullet from 50 Ft.(I know, I shot a test section once) The construction is much like commercial tilt up buildings used now for warehouses, schools, etc. Thats why schools built in recent years here in South Florida are designated Hurricane Shelters. As I said before, We're not as concerned about the storm it's self (We are 8 miles inland, no storm surge) as we are about the aftermath, i.e. power, water, food, sanitation,economic effects, etc. We do hope and pray that we are spared the wrath of this storm.

[Anonymous]

Ladies, ladies...please...

Have you forgotten Floyd's path already??
Floyd was absolutely, positively going to hit Florida.
Then, just as we saw recently with Charley, it hooked to the right.

Not that I'm wishing a hurricane on the Carolinas, especially after the drenching we're gonna get from TD 7, but my gut feeling is that Miami will be spared.

My money is on Jacksonville to Wilmington.

I don't know what the Ladies said, but...
hmmm...somehow I don't remember that ever being a absolute, how about stating your facts on this? You won't be able to.
Floyd became a big cane and continued to move towards Florida, even though forecast called for a turn to the NW. It just didn't occur when predicted As it moved dangerously close to Florida nothing was certain thus the huge evacuation. Even during this time the forecast still called for a swing to the NW giving a possible glancing blow to the east coast of Florida, but as in all forecast there is a margin of error, Floyd was a bad storm, though not as bad as it moved north of Florida still severe. A lot isn't known about the most powerful tropical cyclones such as can they create there own path not being effected by normal controlling factors that steer most storms. The jury is out on this and may be for years.
Would it have been possible for Floyd not turn NW and continue west ? It looked like that could have happened for a while.
One thing is certain even a glancing blow & a slight wobble by 40 or 50 miles to the west over Florida would have created hell by Floyd even during a turn to the NW .

I am not saying your prediction of a landfall is wrong in the Carolinas, even north of Wilmington to the outer banks, but your facts on Floyd and thinking that one storm parallels a previous one of years ago isn't science its like betting the same numbers because they won before. Every track is slightly different & every storm is different, as is every season of every year even though its summer now, many would say it hasn't been much of a summer temperature wise. But next summer things may have the heat wave of the Century Things change. Hurricanes don't run on train tracks.
Take Care,
Mike

[Rainband]

The track worries me... It is too close for comfort. I am sure it will change again and all we can do is wait and see. The bottom line is if you weren't prepared before Charley you should be now and if you aren't now...GET PREPARED!!!!

[Ixolib]

Derek isn't bashing the National Hurricane Center... he is saying that typically when a 5 day forecast track shows one place it tends not to make landfall at or very near that location. i.e. the models have a good chance of changing at least slightly to moderately.

Yes I believe he was. What he was saying, if you are in the the area of the 5 day strike zone you would be safe because the forecast would be that bad. Thats what scares me. Most people believe exactly what he thinks. The forecast will allways change and there area will not be affected.

In a more realistic perspective, of the millions of people potentially at risk, only about 200 (+/-) are using this board for their information!! So errors either way certainly won't have any significant impact on the general population...