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vbhoutex
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#21 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:23 am

I may be wrong, but I believe we all can agree that as defined there was a direct hit, but not a landfall. That is by NHC definition. Good discussion everyone and thanks to those who provided the "official" definition and information.
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#22 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:43 am

Brent wrote:Just one question...

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex? To my knowledge, NO ONE here or anywhere else did. No professionals, not the NHC, TWC or anyone else. We would have thought they were crazy in the head had they. I didn't expect Alex to become a hurricane until last night and didn't expect it to top 75-80 mph winds. I think everyone was taken back by this storm.


Actually...JB did. He was calling for a 970-980mb hurricane over Hatteras when Alex was still a weak TS.
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#23 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:46 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:The eywall barely touched the outer banks. I wouldn't call that a direct hit.


When you get into the strongest part of the eyewall...that is all the direct hit you need.

Also...they eyewall did not barely touch the outer banks. The inner edge of the eye grazed the outer banks. The eyewall went right over them and there are numberous reports that the max winds of the storm were received on the outer banks. So...in this case...it doesn't really matter where the center went because the strongest part of the hurricane hit land.
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#24 Postby Dave C » Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:57 am

That poor buoy off Hateras certainly won't forget Alex. Unfortinately noon was the last hourly ob. it recorded.
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#25 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:09 am

Rainband wrote:I said 60 or 65 mph. Can I have Ranch with my Crow!!! :lol:



**slides the ranch dressing down the table** :lol:
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#26 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:24 am

Thanks Budet :lol:
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#27 Postby yoda » Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:26 am

Hey Rainband.. care passing me some of that crow? I called a TS at 70 mph at max..

Haven't had crow in a while since last winter... :D
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#28 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:52 am

Imagery From: GOES-East Satellite IR Channel 2 has TD2 continuing its westward track with no hint at heding NWN.
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#29 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 04, 2004 11:08 am

JB never wrote off the system that became Alex. He thought it could be tropical storm with 50mph - 60mph winds to the North Carolina coast. It wasn't until Monday he thought that this could become a 90mph to 100mph hurricane


Bottom line is that everyone played catch-up ... everyone ... (read the So ... just why did Alex caught even us offguard thread for more details)

It wasn't until Monday that I realized that we had a developing hurricane on our hands also ... I was discussing the structural changes with one of prof. mets in PM's (exchanging notes, so to speak).

Somewhere on another thread Monday night, I posted about the compact size makes it very susceptible to even the smallest of changes either for or against it ...

And also, I KNOW for a fact that Alex's highest intensity EXCEEDED even the SHIPS forecast intensity ...

SF
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