What do you consider yourself?

[kevin]

Tom, -removed- isn't the enjoyment of weather phenomena, but rather the irrational forecasting of weather events. People can and do enjoy the weather, but do not dilude themselves into thinking the unlikely is likely.

[vbhoutex]

Obviously we are very interested in the weather Tom or we wouldn't be here. But to liken us to people I disagree with is not a fair comparison IMO.

Then we are wishing to have weather affect us... that isn't -removed-? If it is and considered as being a negative word... then of course I (and I assume everyone else) would want to not be a wishcaster.

No it is not -removed- to wish weather to affect us. That term, imo, is used in connection with only tropical cyclones and the people who constantly wishcast/forecast/predict a storm is going to come their way without any good evidence of such or when all the parameters involved point to a storm going somewhere else and they still insist it is "coming here". Weather will affect us whether we care for it to or not, but wanting to see or experience a certain type of weather does not a wishcaster make.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Speaking seriously I honestly think that -removed- is not a bad word if we don't go to the extremes. Everything to the extremes is bad, religion, politics etc. So you can have some degree of wishcaster inside you without being a bad caracteristic. Be honest! All weather enthusiast or even Pro's would like to experience weather someway, somehow, sometime. Even if you store that desire to yourself and don't tell it to anybody, inside yourself, you now you have the desire to see weather, that make you a wishcaster without conviction. And this is not bad at all. The thing that make wiscasting bad is the degree of -removed-. If you go for the extreme, let's said... to desire that a Cat 5 hit you or to get like crazy when you see every blob of convection developing out there, that's extreme! To say that a tropical wave is going to develop even if the conditions appear unfavorable for development to the point of fighting others memebers who say that this wave is not going to develop, that's also extreme.

Maybe I should change the poll...Which degree of whiscasting do you think you have? 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% or 100% wishcaster??


Ohh....The other side...The ones that downgrade everything that is outhere even if it has the best conditions for development. Which name should be given to them??

[kevin]

Naysayers.

[wxchat2004]

I think that i'm a wishcaster because I always wish for something to happen. Like blizzards etc.. But I being a meteorologist I try my best to forecasting this weather.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I think that i'm a wishcaster because I always wish for something to happen. Like blizzards etc.. But I being a meteorologist I try my best to forecasting this weather.

That's it!!! Honestly!!!! That's what I am looking for with this poll!!

Be honest with yourself!!

[Anonymous]

I dont consider myself a wishcaster... Although Id love to see a major cane slam through Jax, I speak what I think will happen not what I wish

[ColdFront77]

No it is not -removed- to wish weather to affect us. That term, imo, is used in connection with only tropical cyclones and the people who constantly wishcast/forecast/predict a storm is going to come their way without any good evidence of such or when all the parameters involved point to a storm going somewhere else and they still insist it is "coming here". Weather will affect us whether we care for it to or not, but wanting to see or experience a certain type of weather does not a wishcaster make.

Then by many here I am "one" without wanting to be one because I take it as being condescending. But, you (David) and at least one or two other [I believe] say that I am not "one."

This is related to my topic on bringing things up and then getting them shot down. We all have our own unique way of posting, however, we can only use certain words to get our point across. -- I have brought this general topic up in the Off Topic forum in recent months.

It isn't easy.

[jabber]

Ok.. I wishcast but never in a public forum (here, home, work)....I watch every wave develop and if fl is not in the forcasted swath I get a little let down (why is it always the GOM or NC I say to myself).

I wish no harm on anyone... A buddy at works swears that as long as I am tracking storms S. Fl is safe

[BayouVenteux]

Ohh....The other side...The ones that downgrade everything that is outhere even if it has the best conditions for development. Which name should be given to them??

Dyn-O-Men

For those more recent arrivals who aren't familiar with this old chestnut: http://www.dynomat.com/storm.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

<i>It would be more logical if the majority here were people I disagree with. Don't we like to experience weather
being a weather enthusiasts; I assume that most of us who access this site on a daily basis are
interested in the subject at least somewhat.</i>


?????

Being interested in something doesn't make one a wishcaster. I'm interested, yet have not made a single wishcast. Some do enjoy storms for the science of trop met. To be honest, following a storm blindly across the ocean, bores the he double hockey sticks out of me

[ColdFront77]

Derek, I mean and actually mentioned in that and another post that we are interested in experiencing weather so we all wishcast to a degree knowing full well why weather systems move the in the direction they are moving in.

Others here are still figuring out as we continue along.

(of course included in that post is an extra word; I can't be the only one doing this and similar things so often.)

[USAwx1]

What it amounts to is the ability to differentiate what is meteorological fact from what you would like top see become reality when it comes to forecasting.

As a meteorologist, I am expected to make forecasts which are to the best of my ability, using the data available for my use to keep the public informed of whats going on. What I would like to see a specific system do and what the data tells me it may do, I DON'T always like (ESPECIALLY WRT snowstorms and blizzards), however, thats life. You can't always get what you want right?

I'm expected to make a forecast which is based on the facts. Weather patters are NOT going to do what I want or what anyone else wants them to do. So wishing for something is essentially pointless, but we all have the propensity to do so, even I do. When it comes to major events, I get just excited as any other weather buff (pro or amateur). I believe some like to refer to this as "weenie-ism" So on that front -- Guilty as charged.

I try to separate what I want to happen from what I expect to happen based on what I see either in the modeling or what climatology says, weighing all of the possibilities equally. If it works out the way i want it to, or the way I "wish" it would, then COOL, thats great. If not, life goes on. There is always another chance/

To give everyone an example, when the GGEM last year developed several massive AOA 950mb hybrid or subtropical bombs (ghost storms--which were developed when the model phased mid latitude systems with potential tropical cyclones) off of the east coast from OCT thru DEC, hell I would have LOVED to see that happen, and YES I "WISH" it would. BUT shifting gears back to reality, I knew that the majority of those solutions were just simply ridiculous.

It's easier when you deal with the facts and leave your personal desires for another day.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Great post USAwx1!!! Thanks for your coments and support of this poll.

[donsutherland1]

The_Cycloman_PR,

I believe that one needs to know the difference between one who is a "wishcaster" and one who is not. Briefly, a "wishcaster" is not one who wishes for a particular kind of weather e.g., a blizzard. Most people have preferences.

A "wishcaster" is one who lets his/her preferences interfere with his/her informed judgment in stating an expectation/forecast.

Here's a hypothetical situation:

There is a strong ridge off the Southeast coast that will likely cause a developing Gulf system to track up the spine of the Appalachians. Thus any snow will likely change to a heavy rain along the coastal plain as warm air is pulled in off the Atlantic Ocean.

A "wishcaster" who desires a big snowstorm would ignore the above realities and forecast a major snowstorm.

Someone, even one who desires such a snowstorm, who considers the evidence and calls for a snow-to-rain scenario or mainly rain scenario would not be a "wishcaster."

[donsutherland1]

Great points, USAwx1.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Great coments also...Thanks donsutherland1!

[ColdFront77]

There you go.

The point I am trying to make is everyone hopes and wishes we aren't people I disagree with when most of us here aren't even making "real forecasts" -- we are discussing what a system is forecast to do officially and what it may not do especially when the official forecast itself is fuzzy.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Any more coments?

Come one!! This polls are good for entertainment by the time we wait for action in the tropics....

[Janie34]

Ok, I'll play.

In my view, -removed- is creating a forecast for a particular wx system in defiance of all available data to the contrary....especially the continued insistence on that forecast. For example, the insistence that a poorly-developed tropical wave will suddenly develop into a powerful hurricane and strike a populated area of the US, contrary to all evidence. Sure, there is always that 1% possibility that something will blow up, but is it at all a probable outcome? While it will still be a bit of time before I'm acting in a professional role within the meteorological community, I can say for a fact that if you wishcast in a synoptic met course you will flunk the course very quickly. You might be given a particular city or location and asked to create a current and extended forecast for that city, and you'd best be able to support your forecast with good data. Sometimes I think of synoptic met as one very chaotic press conference, with all the questions raining down on you after your Wx briefing. lol So, I have to say I'm in alignment with this viewpoint on the boards.

I'm just as much a weather enthusiast as anyone on the board, I have been since childhood. There's no harm in being fascinated by weather events and wanting to experience that for yourself. There is no harm in examining a system from all angles and asking questions about the possibility for development, what factors may help or hinder that development, or what direction the system may take. OTOH, an insistence on a solution thats contrary to every bit of evidence we have can be quite harmfull, particularly concerning major storms and their impact on the US.

That being said, I try to keep things in perspective. -removed- on the boards is one thing. -removed- for public, commercial or military products would be disasterous, for the community and everyone else.