MLC moving off MX. coast this morning..........

#21 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:02 pm

That is the same convection feeding northward into TX on the low level southerly flow around the ridge below 700H.

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:11 pm

This map also illustrates that the shear is lessening in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico, lets see if this system is like Allison that developed quickly, but hopefully not with the same results.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Sandy Delgado

lilbump3000 · #23 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:14 pm

If the system can manage to stay in the extreme western gulf, it just might have a chance to develop as it already looks like a tropical depression.

Johnny · #24 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:16 pm

This thread took off pretty quick didn't it? lol

bbadon · #25 Postby **bbadon** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:19 pm

Not even a mention in the 5:30 TWO. LOL Oh well its the most interesting thing I have saw in the gulf this year.

Storm Man · #26 Postby **Storm Man** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:20 pm

This Is Looking Very Interesting?
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Stormsfury · #27 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:22 pm

bbadon wrote:Not even a mention in the 5:30 TWO. LOL Oh well its the most interesting thing I have saw in the gulf this year.

Mesoscale convective systems occur like this over land as well, and we've had quite a few of them this year in the Plains States just last month ...

SF

#28 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:22 pm

The system is an MCV or Mesoscale Convective Vortex. The decreasing shear over it has allowed it to develop those characteristics. This is the same type of system that you folks got all bent out of shape about a few days ago over TX.

MCV's are notorious for producing heavy rainfall.

GIVEN THE RIGHT SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES and MCS induced MCV CAN become a tropical system, as Danny did in 1997, however it HAS to remain over the open waters and the other necessary factors for development must be in place.

lilbump3000 · #29 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:23 pm

It does look very impressive, and i don't know why the national hurricane center isn't saying nothing about it.

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:24 pm

This is something like the first stages of Hurricane Alicia in 1983. Right?

Sandy Delgado

bbadon · #31 Postby **bbadon** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:25 pm

I just said it was interesting thats all. I know there is no LLC nor a hint of one. But when you see this on a sat of the GOM it still makes you pay more attention.

#32 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:50 pm

Not at all like the first stages of Alicia!!!!

NHC has mentioned it in their TWD(available on their site)as an area of diminishing convection moving off the doast of Mexico. It is not mentioned in the TWO as their is nothing tropical about it at this point.

Got our interest up quick though didn't it?

As far as us getting bent out of shape USAWX1, we were looking at major rains on radars and progs of up to 10" in 2 days by the NWS in our area. THAT WILL ALWAYS GET ME "bent out of shape"!!!

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:55 pm

Don't miss this beautiful visible image of the disturbed weather in the GOM.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... n=atlantic

Sandy Delgado

#34 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:58 pm

Ooh, very nice images, Sandy. Is that a feeder band already developing :?:

#35 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 4:59 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Ooh, very nice images, Sandy. Is that a feeder band already developing

I don't know certainly but it surely looks interesting.

Sandy Delgado

#36 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 5:08 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Not at all like the first stages of Alicia!!!!

NHC has mentioned it in their TWD(available on their site)as an area of diminishing convection moving off the doast of Mexico. It is not mentioned in the TWO as their is nothing tropical about it at this point.

Got our interest up quick though didn't it?

As far as us getting bent out of shape USAWX1, we were looking at major rains on radars and progs of up to 10" in 2 days by the NWS in our area. THAT WILL ALWAYS GET ME "bent our of shape"!!!

I'm speaking from a tropical development standpoint, and referring to NO ONE in particular. The rains over TX have been prolific, there is no doubt about it.

the GFS still has 60hr totals over 1.25" across much of SE TX, however beware of gridscale feedback -- the GFS is notorious for it.

#37 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 5:12 pm

also...what i was specifically discussing was the MCV over North TX and SRN OK, which produced plenty of heavy rain in that area.

SCUBAdude · #38 Postby **SCUBAdude** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 6:42 pm

Looks like it's petering out to me. I don't give it much of a chance.
SCUBAdude.

#39 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:09 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Ooh, very nice images, Sandy. Is that a feeder band already developing

No, there is not a feeder band, and it is not by any stretch of the imagination a TD. It's just a thunderstorm cluster with a little mid-level vortex. The NHC isn't bothering with it because it'll be moving inland into Texas tomorrow and convection isn't that heavy now. Just a curious twist with tstms. What I was worried about was that the NHC WOULD notice and mention it - making my life a lot more difficult for something that's basically a "nothing".

Yankeegirl · #40 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Jun 09, 2004 7:39 pm

[quote="vbhoutex"]

As far as us getting bent out of shape USAWX1, we were looking at major rains on radars and progs of up to 10" in 2 days by the NWS in our area. THAT WILL ALWAYS GET ME "bent out of shape"!!![/quote]

Whats this about?? Are we going to get more rain?? I think that area looks like it needs to have an eye kept on it... It looks very omnious... Makes me worry...

Lisa

MLC moving off MX. coast this morning..........

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