Houston-Galveston Forecast Disc........Tropical Moisture

[Suzi Q]

Yankee Girl, I know the feeling. I was gonna try and get all my plants fertilized today-not much point if it's gonna pour like cats and dogs. Just finished mowing the back yard, headed out to do the front next then try and make sure the street is free of debris. We flood real easy here in SW Houston and it just figures I have an appointment with my insurance agent to get flood insurance TOMORROW. Jinkies.

Everyone be on the lookout for my fish if we get what's predicted. You know how they LOVE to swim out of the pond when it floods.

[Wnghs2007]

but our SST's are not high enough to sustain any real development.

Actually according to this the whole Gulf is high enough to sustain tropical activitry vbuotex.

[GalvestonDuck]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I could have sworn this was the same type of system we had to contend with before Allison -- training rain that went on for days, which saturated the Hou/Galv area and made Allison that much worse when she hit just a few days later.

It was during a lot of heavy rain and flooding that I joined GoPBI and created "GalvestonDuck" as my screen name because I was from Galveston and the weather here was for the ducks! I don't remember exactly when I joined, but I'm sure it was before Allison and may have been during this messy weather that I recall.

Of course, I am NOT saying that this will lead to another Allison event. I'm just referring to how bad the weather slammed us before she came along.

[bbadon]

Looking at the buoys, it appears most water in the gulf is around 82 deg f.

[bbadon]

I agree G. Duck. this was the same scenario as Allison. in fact A. spun up so quickly it caught the the NHC by surprise. In fact when Allison was named a TS around 10:00 a.m. the TWO for that morning said No TS formation expected. At the time the TWO was issued the met here in the NWS in Lake Charles, LA called the NHC directly to report 60 MPH winds on the offshore rigs, 4 hours later we had Allison. I am not saying we will have an Allison here, however squally weather in the western GOM in June with 82 degree water and low shear, anything is possible.

[PTrackerLA]

The water temps are most definately warm enough to support development! Maybe not a cat. 5 but warm enough for another "A..". I'm not saying it will happen but I do remember that she formed in a similar way. Anywho, the dewpoint is 79 outside right now combined with a temp of 87 degrees to give us a heat index of 101 at 11AM! Welcome to the tropics folks.

[crazy4disney]

What kills me is the wishy-washy-ness (yes, I'm making words up ) of the local weather guys. We have one severe storm, like last week, and you'd have thought it was a sign of the coming apocolypse the way they covered it practically non-stop. But now we have NWS discussions and outlooks stating very clearly the threat we face this week, and on the local morning news they were celebrating that "they would get some rain on their flowerbeds." Not once were the words "potential flooding" (which might be an understatement, looking at the discussions) even mentioned, and I find that irresponsible. For a great many people, that is their only source of weather info.

Or am I alone in my aggravation?

-gina-

[bbadon]

Could this be our trigger for next week? Interesting projected motion. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Suzi Q]

Gina, no you're not alone. But you have to remember (and some folks may slam me for this) that A. just because they're on TV does not mean they have a degree in Meteorology and B. ratings, ratings, ratings. I really don't pay much attention to anyone other than Wes Hohenstein or Dr. Frank. The rest is all fluff and makeup, imo. I check NWS and Skywarn EVERY MORNING for my weather. Then again, NWS said the rain would start affecting us by 9:00 AM and it has only sprinkled here. Regardless, they are mets and I put alot more faith in what they say. Heck, I put alot more faith on what some of my buddies on HERE say, since they usually have a real good grip as to what's happening.

I also remember with Allison, that morning there was no mention of rain whatsoever and then I get off work and I have three people in the office that I worked at asking me "What's up with Allison?". I'm kinda in a sit back and watch mode right now, although I am getting stuff done in case something actually occurs and they activate me and the other spotters. Oh, well yeah, I am getting the canoe ready..............

[Johnny]

I remember Allison very well. She gave me my first sighting of an actual tornado which I did get a picture of. It now hangs on the wall in my bedroom.

I pay attention to the weather on a daily basis and yes, T.S. Allison was a big surprise. I had a beach house down in Jamaica Beach rented out when Allison rolled in. The week before, we had alot of rainfall already on the ground. We got down to Galveston on a Monday and were greeted with a very strong thunderstorm when we were driving along the Seawall. When it passed the weather was absolutely beautiful the rest of the day. I watched the TWC that evening and there was no mention of any type of tropical weather out in the Gulf. That night we were awoken to another strong thunderstorm while staying at the beach house. I woke up that morning and the wind had picked up and a steady moderate rain was falling. What the? I turn on TWC and they were talking about an area of disturbed weather right off the coast of Galveston. Oh man!! The family and I headed off to the strand for a little shopping and the surf was really tore up with waves crashing up against the rocks. We got back to our beach house and Tropical Allison was born. We decided to stay put where we were. It was an experience I will never forget. We had winds gusts up to 60 mph, lots of rain and we even had a tornado touch down 100 yards to the West of us. We got home the next day and that Friday is when Allison dumped copious amounts of rain on top of the Houston Metro area. It took me 4 hours to get home that evening unlike the usual 45 minutes it usually takes me. Allison definately left an impression on my family and I.

Something isn't right with our weather this week. Time will tell.

[vbhoutex]

You can be assured I will be watching all of this closely as it does indeed bring to mind Allison's beginnings(conditions marginal for strong or sustained development, but almost there). There were more than a few of us "weather geeks" who were in disagreement with the NHC call on the developing Allison that day. I had already called it as a TS by 8am from what I was picking up off the buoys and the radars all around her. To say the least she was a surprise to many in the weather community who were not sitting right on top of her and watching "all" the signs that a developing system sends out-some of that has to do with the way the birds and animals act(which is something they couldn't see). I will never bash the NHC or NWS for the work they do, but I will question them sometimes, and that was one of the times I was just about ready to pick up the phone and call and say "hello, please open your eyes!!". To say the least, the rest is history and that was a hellacious week for millions of people!! And as PTrackerLa has pointed out it continued the next week as Allison or her remains continued to trek clear up the Eastern seaboard just about. As with any system time will tell if it will just be rain or if we end up with Alex out of this.

[GalvestonDuck]

I halfway thought about putting this as the first post in its own thread so folks could click on it and view quickly, and then post here with discussions without ever having to leave the forum. But then I remembered I have the smaller one as my avatar also.

So either way, we can all watch the progress over the next couple of days as this thing builds.





(Edited and updated to include Brownsville, via David's request and info. )

[bbadon]

I agree VBHou. I to will not disagree with the NHC but question them often. I am part of the emergency management team here in Cameron Parish and it is quite amazing to know some of the thought process that has to go into even the wording of anything formal that comes from the NHC. Our motto here in Cameron Parish is we would rather be griped at for making people pay for hotel rooms for an evac for no reason than having to answer why people drowned and were not warned. So we pay very close attention to what the NHC says but we also keep our eyes open. Thanks to the internet we do not have to wait every 6 hours for a new update like the "old days."

[Rainband]

Stay safe all of you

[stormie_skies]

Hmmm.... time to start building the ark, I guess.....

[Brent]

What do ya'll think about the Florida Panhandle around Fort Walton Beach this coming Sunday through next Wednesday? Will it be just an increased chance of afternoon storms or what? We're going on vacation there and I was just wondering. We likely won't be doing much on the beach in the daytime anyway because of the sun, most of what we do will be in the mornings and then in the evening around and after Sunset.

[Yankeegirl]

I cant help but notice how windy it was this afternoon... They never said anything about the wind playing in this rainy weaher?? I havent seen any rain here in West Houston as of yet... Just really windy... Hhhmmmmm....

[Yankeegirl]

Not to mention.. When ever the locals say we have like a 60-100% chance of rain, we never get any!! I must have a dome or something over my house... I am always a little weary when they say we have a high chance of rain... Sometimes I wonder what the locals are looking at... or if they are even in the right state....

[GalvestonDuck]

I cant help but notice how windy it was this afternoon... They never said anything about the wind playing in this rainy weaher?? I havent seen any rain here in West Houston as of yet... Just really windy... Hhhmmmmm....

I received a message from the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory this AM at work about 38 MPH winds down there on the west end of the island as a small storm moved onshore. Hadn't heard anything else lately. But, then again, I'm not at work and I haven't updated my subscription to include my home email addy.

[BaytownSam]

Might be a interesting next few days...
AKA TexasSam, I can't seem to get my old name working.