Larry should make the connection with the next trough

[dixiebreeze]

John, I happen to think you're right, not wrong. I think overnight will be interesting with respect to your forecast.

[JetMaxx]

I personally DON'T make bold statements like that because I know better. I guess you MAY have to learn the hard way.

No son, you don't make bold statements because you 1) apparently lack the guts to back up your opinion. It's very easy to sit under the circus big top and mock those who attempt to walk the high wire but fall. I only have respect for those who have the conviction to back up their BIG MOUTHS with action.

I'm nearly 42 years of age...and have learned the hard way enough times to NEVER make a bold prediction UNLESS the deck is heavily stacked in my favor. That's why I'm not worried...not a bit

[ColdFront77]

I second rainband on that statement that Perry will not leave because he is a valuable person who brings the historic prospective of the hurricanes and past seasons.

I agree with Jonathan and Luis.

We can't afford your disappearance from Storm2K because of what Larry may or may not do.

[caneman]

I personally DON'T make bold statements like that because I know better. I guess you MAY have to learn the hard way.

No son, you don't make bold statements because you 1) apparently lack the guts to back up your opinion. It's very easy to sit under the circus big top and mock those who attempt to walk the high wire but fall. I only have respect for those who have the conviction to back up their BIG MOUTHS with action.

I'm nearly 42 years of age...and have learned the hard way enough times to NEVER make a bold prediction UNLESS the deck is heavily stacked in my favor. That's why I'm not worried...not a bit

Gotta admit. YOu're going out on a limb here. I've read your posts and you do a good job but after reading the 8:00 discussion you sure you won't change your mind? If it sits til next week. I think it's a whole new ballgame. BTW, would someone be kind enough to explain the boxes at the bottom when you're replying and rather you should check or keep them unchecked. HTML and BBCode - what are they for?

[vbhoutex]

For one I won't allow you to go anywhere, right or wrong, Perry!!! You are much too valuable to Internet weather, IMO. Besides, I think you are right and have been saying so for several days. The only kicker I see with Larry is if he becomes a strong Hurricane by Sunday. If that happens I see a slight possiblilty of him being picked up by the upper winds and taken back NE. However, I am not holding my breath to wait for it to happen. Folks we are currently in a strong winter pattern, maybe two months early, but any way you look at it we are and it is progged to hold on for at least the next 5 days. I just don't see the NE run happening especially with Larry on the far Southwestern edge of all of it.

[Stormcenter]

JetMaxx first of all I'm not your son. I don't make BOLD statements like you because I'm smart enough to see a hole before I fall in it. I don't care if you're 42 or 82 years old. I've been tracking storms for 27 years and guts has NOTHING to do with it. I know what tropical systems can do in October I guess you haven't learned that.

[fla_girl]

until that system is over land i will be watching, as should the rest of you. it's the only prudent thing to do. we may have male names on our 'canes these days. but the boss (mother nature) is female!

[Derek Ortt]

The system would be nothing but cirrus clouds if it hits Florida. Never use only climo when making a forecast, you'll get results worse than the CLIPER

[Stormsfury]

JetMaxx first of all I'm not your son. I don't make BOLD statements like you because I'm smart enough to see a hole before I fall in it. I don't care if you're 42 or 82 years old. I've been tracking storms for 27 years and guts has NOTHING to do with it. I know what tropical systems can do in October I guess you haven't learned that.

Seems to me you're following the LBAR lock, stock, and barrel. IMO, a BIG mistake. I see NOTHING that will make any attempt to pick Larry up and move it into Florida ... NOTHING. IMHO, the LBAR (Loves Beer and Rum) run is drunker than Robert Downey Jr. before a rehab stint.

The system would be nothing but cirrus clouds if it hits Florida. Never use only climo when making a forecast, you'll get results worse than the CLIPER

Bingo.

IF for some unforseen reason that Larry stayed in the BOC for an ungodly amount of time, and decide to head to Florida, Larry would either be 1) sheared beyond recognition 2) Extratropical and merged with the front.

SF

[Stormcenter]

The point is that the "POSSIBILITY" of Larry heading NE toward Florida is there no matter how slim it may be. I'm not in the business of saying there is "NO CHANCE" something will happen when it comes to tropical systems. You will eventually get burned when you do that.

[JetMaxx]

JetMaxx first of all I'm not your son. I don't make BOLD statements like you because I'm smart enough to see a hole before I fall in it. I don't care if you're 42 or 82 years old. I've been tracking storms for 27 years and guts has NOTHING to do with it. I know what tropical systems can do in October I guess you haven't learned that.

Forecasting with my gut? Oh please...

The ECMWF....the GFDL....the UKMet...and virtually all other global and track models except the worthless LBAR now progg Larry into Mexico. October hurricane climatology also dictates this storm will never leave the Bay of Campeche (Opal was one of few to ever escape the BOC in October).

The overall weather pattern of large cold polar high pressure being reinforced by cold fronts for the forseeable future tell me this tropical storm will either move south/ SW into Mexico or be torn to shreds if it moves N or NE (into a 80 kt jet stream over the northern GOM).

I base my analysis and forecast on sound synoptic, model, and climatic guidance. Now you tell me why this storm is going to strike the Gulf Coast or Florida? What reasoning? What does your 27 years of tracking October canes tell you that my 30 years of hurricane RESEARCH don't tell me.

I don't wishcast friend....I'm an experienced and trained meteorologist. I don't forecast anything unless there is substantial evidence backing me up.....why I forecast Isabel into NC as a cat-3 (based on the favorable synoptic pattern and GFDL intensity guidance). I also don'yt make bold predictions based on gut instinct or wishcast.

Based on all available synoptic, upper air, and model forecast guidance....not to mention October climatology, there's less than a 1 in 100 chance this storm will ever come close to Florida or the U.S. Gulf Coast.

My apologies for addressing you as "son". Your previous two posts reminded me of something a 15 year old would say.

[Steve]

>>The point is that the "POSSIBILITY" of Larry heading NE toward Florida is there no matter how slim it may be. I'm not in the business of saying there is "NO CHANCE" something will happen when it comes to tropical systems. You will eventually get burned when you do that.

Best post on the thread other than the reputation staking one. I posted a thread just yesterday (haven't gotten any takers yet) of what those in the high profile media similarly do. Steve Lyons eats his words every other storm by jumping the gun. CNN is worse. There have been plenty of posts rehashing some CNN met du jour stating that "Hurricane x won't be affecting the USA" only to become the lead story 4 or 5 days later.

The weather isn't completely unpredictable by a longshot, but we've all seen at least one storm (if not dozens) behave in a manner we never expected.

Personally, I could care who posts on an internet message board or not. Nobody is perfect. If JetMaxx is going that far out on a limb, he's obviously convinced he's right ego-driven or otherwise. If he's wrong, I'd certainly forgive him. But more importantly, if he was to stick to his word in the event of failure, I would respect him even more.

Steve

[JetMaxx]

The point is that the "POSSIBILITY" of Larry heading NE toward Florida is there no matter how slim it may be. I'm not in the business of saying there is "NO CHANCE" something will happen when it comes to tropical systems. You will eventually get burned when you do that.

Stormcenter....I'm NOT in the habit of making bold predictions. You are a newbie....I've been on these boards for four years. Ask the regulars who know me (vbhoutex, cycloneye, ticka, BarometerBob, m_f dolphin, etc).....this is the first bold prediction I've made in a couple years. I'm actually a very laid back and conservative guy.

I NEVER, EVER make a bold prediction UNLESS I'm certain it's sure bet

[Steve]

>>GFDL intensity guidance

That's a crapshoot in and of itself.

Steve

[JetMaxx]

Well, SHIPS isn't much better Steve.....we really need some better intensity guidance, but it unfortunately is beyond the current state of the art....even NHC admits the intensity forecasts aren't as accurate as they should be.

[Stormcenter]

JetMaxx
You know what I really have NO problem with your bold predictions. As I stated before I hope you're right because I hate to think of what you would do with your spare time if you couldn't post here. Hey maybe the NHC has some openings? LOL!

[JetMaxx]

Hey maybe the NHC has some openings? LOL!

I'd actually prefer The Weather Channel...it's much closer to home

[Stormsfury]

>>GFDL intensity guidance

That's a crapshoot in and of itself.

Steve

Intensity forecasts are never strongshoots of ANY model. However, the GFDL this year has shined in regards to track with many storms this year. And to the GFDL's credit this year, it isn't developing 35 kt storms into CAT 5 hurricanes in 36 hours. GFDL briefly brings Larry to 65 kts (at the surface ... reminder the wind forecast on TCG site from the GFDL is for 35 meters above the surface) before landfall.

(Case in point, CHIPS, not SHIPS forecasts, keeps Larry down around 50 kts for the most part while SHIPS brings Larry to hurricane status). Of interesting note however, CHIPS wants to bring Kate to near 120 kts in 24 hours, while SHIPS (at 18z) brings Kate around 85 kts. One of the CHIPS ensemble members actually brings Kate to 130 kts in 24 hours.

Intensity forecasts have made remarked leaps but still is the most difficult thing to forecast on a TC. IMHO, tonight's EURO could be on to the right overall idea with Larry drifting aimlessly in the BOC for 3 days before moving SW into MEX by Day 4.

SF

[Stormsfury]

JetMaxx
You know what I really have NO problem with your bold predictions. As I stated before I hope you're right because I hate to think of what you would do with your spare time if you couldn't post here. Hey maybe the NHC has some openings? LOL!

IMHO, whether right or wrong, JetMaxx is more than welcome to post his BOLD predictions. I posted tonight's ECMWF in another thread and it pretty much matches JetMaxx's and it has STRONG support from the GFDL. Also of note, the ETA. There are some subtle variables. But I've seen enough to also say that Larry will go into MEX in about 4 days.

Here it is again.
EURO LOOP

Stormcenter ... seems to me that you've been going at JetMaxx quite a bit tonight, and I don't know what the EXACT deal is. JetMaxx has proven his meteorological credentials and very sound. JetMaxx does NOT make BOLD statements lightly and freely.

I also believe that Larry will drift aimlessly for a few days before turning W or SW into MEX, and yes there's an outside chance that it MAY survive into the EPAC since it might cross the most narrow plane of MEX.

SF

[Stormcenter]

Stormsfury I have NOTHING against JetMaxx or his predictions. I guess we will see how things pan out in the next few days.