Larry to threaten florida and kate to threaten East Coast!

[ColdFront77]

Windy, I agree with your as well. I have been saying the same thing in pretty much the same way.

I should have added I do not believe the slightest that Hurricane Kate will effect the eastern seaboard.

I meant to say, that in general tropical cyclones have to be watched when there are no "walls"-- strong troughs moving off the eastern seaboard into them.

[JetMaxx]

DT and MrBob are correct....and it doesn't take a college degree in meteorology to know what IS and ISN'T possible with Larry and Kate....I'm living proof (barely finished high school).

Why can I say with complete assurance that neither Kate or Larry are U.S. threats? Because I've put forth the effort to learn the science of meteorology...synoptic surface and upper air pattern recognition, climatology, etc . I began learning hurricane climatology and basic forecasting as a teenager...by studying every weather book I could get my hands on.

As I grew older, I began researching severe storms and major hurricanes of the past...not only to learn the stats; but to learn what patterns in the atmosphere CAUSED them. Why did hurricane Camille become so intense? Why did the Great Miami Hurricane move WNW and never recurve? What caused the April 1974 tornado superoutbreak to be a record breaker?

I sought answers in the NOAA Natural Disaster Survey Reports, Weatherwise magazine, and even ESSA and NWS memoranduns. By the time I came onboard the internet in 2000, I had a pretty good grasp of climatology and basic forecasting. What I lacked was a good understanding of forecast model data, and how to combine climatology, pattern recognition, model data, and COMMON SENSE...something even some pro's seem to forget from time to time.

Thanks to learning under pro's such as DT, MrBob, and Tony Cristaldi, I now am more competent than many pro's I know, and many more I see on tv.
I'm very fortunate to have been blessed with enough intelligence to learn quickly and absorb information....and not repeat mistakes.

I'm continuing to learn....MrBob taught me a great deal last winter and early spring regarding winter storm and severe wx forecasting....because sometimes the little things you barely notice can mean the difference in a line of strong t-storms and a tornado outbreak.

I now also have the knowledge to realize there is a certain margin for error on forecast models. This isn't 1955 or 1980....weather date models have become much more accurate since 1992; especially when there is good model agreement. When the only model data forecasting Larry toward the U.S. coast is the LBAR....which isn't even designed to forecast hurricanes north of the deep tropics, I know there is NO WAY Larry will ever strike the U.S.

Kate won't even reach Bermuda...because of a massive trough offshore the U.S. east coast. It isn't possible, and anyone who knows basic meteorology/ wx forecasting knows it.

There are certain things that are absolutes in weather and climate: For example, you can't get a snowstorm in Atlanta in July, or reach 100° in January....and major hurricanes cannot ever penetrate a deep trough with polar air behind it (Kate would be totally destroyed by the jetstream and cold, dry air).

Hurricanes can't just turn on a dime and go wherever they please. It seemed they did without warning in "the old days" because the data models weren't good enough to catch it beforehand...if the models of today had been available to forecasters in 1965, I can assure you hurricane Betsy's erratic and unusual movements would have been known 2-4 days beforehand; not after she began to move...

One problem I notice in this and other weather forums....folks don't give the model data enough credit...don't have enough confidence in the technology. Even though it's crystal clear certainty that Larry will eventually move into Mexico, some still say....it's not a guarantee, there could be surprises. NO there can't....NOT in a situation where ALL the relevant models AND current synoptic situation AGREE.

I said it the other day....we are in a NOVEMBER-like weather pattern across North America, and it isn't going to change in time to send Larry speeding toward the Gulf Coast as Opal did in 1995. Something I learned from veteran Atlanta meteorologist Ken Cook many years ago....when the weather pattern acts like November, tropical systems will react like they do in November....even if it's late September (most tropical systems in the GOM in November are doomed to dissapation from hostile atmospheric conditions).

I can use the same anology about severe storms. Remember the huge widespread tornado outbreak last November 10th....F3/F4 tornadoes from Ohio to Mississippi. It was just like an April "springtime" tornadic swarm. Why? BECAUSE the storm system and atmospheric parameters (i.e.- upper air pattern, jet stream setup, CAPE and Helicity values, size and intensity of the surface cyclone) were just like early April -- so the storm system produced April-like tornadoes...with devastating results.

That's where the "common sense" aspect of forecasting kicks in.
Common sense tells any forecaster that knows how and why hurricanes develop, strengthen, and move there's NO WAY Larry can "slingshot" NE into Apalachicola with such a cold, dry high pressure airmass and strong jet stream in place.

[Guest]

Some never do learn......................Great Post by Perry, Mr Bob, And DT as well.................Do we really need to rewind and have another look at who said what during Isabel???????? I surely hope not...................

[ColdFront77]

Indeed KOW. Of course, before there is enough confidence in the forecast track of a tropical cyclone... then we can't be sure of the eventual track.

[abajan]

According to the track I'm almost certain that larry will head towards florida then make its way up the east coast and as for kate I believe the track will bring it near N/C & Va. border. Remember this is just my opinion and I will not change what I predict.......Keep monitoring the gulf and atlantic anythings possible. Study the Historical maps and you will be amazed at the forecast tracks.....like I said its better to watch these storms then go by what the models predict. Errors can happen IMHO......

It's one thing to say that anything is possible. Probability is a whole other matter. You're almost certain that Larry will head towards Florida? What on earth makes you think so? Is it some sort of a hunch? The same goes for Kate. So far the NHC's projected track for Kate has been pretty much on target. What makes you believe there will be some major deviation to the left?

Kate and Larry are going to end up close (within 100 miles) to where the NHC says they will, IMHO......

[cycloneye]

Already Kate is making the turn to the north well east of Bermuda and may get very close to eastern Newfounland.

[CocoaBill]

Right cyclon - and Larry is not forecasted by any of the global models to move north....... These two cyclones are outa here

[Guest]

anythings possible!So what if I said larry would hit florida and go straight up the east coast. Whats wrong with that? nothing is never definate and it could still be possible. Like I said I may be wrong about larry & kate but its still my opinion. Kate hasn't made the north turn so what if I said it will threaten the east coast. Again what's the big deal???????I'm sorry I forgot your perfect when it come to posting the direction of a tropical storm or hurricane. I bet your right everytime because your God...Lols...but anyway I guess when I go to church tommorow I ought to tell the lord he has competition.Lols.....

[Guest]

anythings possible!So what if I said larry would hit florida and go straight up the east coast. Whats wrong with that? nothing is never definate and it could still be possible. Like I said I may be wrong about larry & kate but its still my opinion. Kate hasn't made the north turn so what if I said it will threaten the east coast. Again what's the big deal???????I'm sorry I forgot your perfect when it come to posting the direction of a tropical storm or hurricane. I bet your right everytime because your God...Lols...but anyway I guess when I go to church tommorow I ought to tell the lord he has competition.Lols.....

There is a big deal when you post a thread header that says what it says on this board......................Maybe you should start by saying My thoughts on the systems and why (Legit please)................Other then that saying something that has almost zero chance of happening is gonna draw responses like the one you got from DT......................And by the way DT isnt the only one who suggested this.......................If your looking for problems i suggest it goes elsewhere!

[Guest]

I have a right to my opinion even if it is far fetched. Larry could have very well drifted towards florida and made it up the east coast I believe Danny and a few other tropical storms did this. As for kate the north turn has not been made I watched the TWO this morning on T.V. and even the meterologist was even getting concerned that kate hadn't made the turn and was telling the residents of bermuda to keep a close eye on kate. As far as the discussion goes kate will turn wnw tonight....so the turn to the north couldn't have happened or the meterologists lied about it. Lols some of you think your God and can predict what a storm will do. When I go to church tommorow I'm going to tell the lord he has competition. Lols and I told the same thing to DT. People don't post on these message boards to argue its to get info and to share what others think a storm might do. Even the meterologists said a tropical storm and a hurricane is hard to predict even the models have messed up a few times. I knew Isabel was going to strike the east coast right before it came close to the lesser Antilles. I kept telling people on the east coast to monitor Isabel because anythings possible. So for some of you who predict the weather remember things can change and it may not always be the way you see it. Lols take care.....

[Guest]

Well let me put it another way! Speaking as a MOD....................I will repeat that you are at the wrong site for what you are suggesting................We are not here to discuss far fetched ideas! Your best bet is to drop this now................Thanks.

[Stormsfury]

I have a right to my opinion even if it is far fetched. Larry could have very well drifted towards florida and made it up the east coast I believe Danny and a few other tropical storms did this. As for kate the north turn has not been made I watched the TWO this morning on T.V. and even the meterologist was even getting concerned that kate hadn't made the turn and was telling the residents of bermuda to keep a close eye on kate. As far as the discussion goes kate will turn wnw tonight....so the turn to the north couldn't have happened or the meterologists lied about it. Lols some of you think your God and can predict what a storm will do. When I go to church tommorow I'm going to tell the lord he has competition. Lols and I told the same thing to DT. People don't post on these message boards to argue its to get info and to share what others think a storm might do. Even the meterologists said a tropical storm and a hurricane is hard to predict even the models have messed up a few times. I knew Isabel was going to strike the east coast right before it came close to the lesser Antilles. I kept telling people on the east coast to monitor Isabel because anythings possible. So for some of you who predict the weather remember things can change and it may not always be the way you see it. Lols take care.....

Of course, no will EVER be right 100% of the time. NO ONE. However, when there's this much solid reasoning from more than 5 people (just on this thread), including professionals and seasoned amateurs alike in the field of meteorology with a very unanimous prediction with again, solid reasoning of why Larry will head south into Mexico and there have been no changes otherwise to dispute that point.

Everyone's entitled to their opinions and forecasts. What everyone wants to know is your reasoning behind your opinions. You've offered no solid support to make myself and others to believe otherwise.

Storm2k is a place to debate, discuss, forecast, predict, and talk about weather. It's also a mission to get everyone interested in the weather to discuss weather (pros, amateurs, and weenies alike). The professional and amateur forecasters that post here are doing the best they can to get it right all the time and will follow their knowledge, model guidance, and climatology to do the best they can to get it right. We want people to learn about how weather works. That's why I'm here ... to teach what I can and learn even more from the pros in the field.

SF

[ColdFront77]

Perry, Harry, DT (and everyone), as I have said before, I have been following meteorology, both "general" and tropical for about 20 years enough to learn how and why weather works, I have corresponded with some meteorologists from time to time online, but they aren't easy to find for discussions about weather in general and current weather situations.

I know full well that tropical systems can't move through troughs and tropical systems can't move northward toward and into a cool, dry air mass. It doesn't make sense for anyone to think something like that could possibly take place.

[therock1811]

Good points SF, Tom and Harry. With that said, we should drop anything that suggests Larry will hit FL or Kate will hit the EC... just not going to happen......storms can't blow thru troughs.

[JetMaxx]

Windy, all I did was tell the truth. I didn't trash you or call you any names; only tried to explain why Larry wouldn't affect the U.S.

I feel vindicated this evening....Larry is doing exactly what I forecast. And no, I'm not God....only a gentleman who's busted his tail for three decades to learn weather forecasting from A to Z -- so I wouldn't have to ask pro's questions...because I already knew the answer.

If that makes me a bad guy in your opinion...or anyone else's...it's your problem.

[Air Force Met]

Larry could have very well drifted towards florida and made it up the east coast...

Windy, the atmosphere is not a 20 sided die where you can roll it and maybe roll a 20 and get the thing to come up the west side of Florida. So...no it couldn't have drifted that way like other storms because the atmosphere was not set up to allow it to do so. This is not the craps table...this is science. That is why you are running into some difficulty here. This is not a normal tropical board where you can just throw out some wild speculations, crazy forecasts and anything goes. We ask that if you throw out some crazy forecasts that you support it with some reasoning that has some sort of meteorology behind it...and that it is sound meteorology (and not some of the antics we saw with Izzy).

[Mr Bob]

anythings possible!So what if I said larry would hit florida and go straight up the east coast. Whats wrong with that? nothing is never definate and it could still be possible. Like I said I may be wrong about larry & kate but its still my opinion. Kate hasn't made the north turn so what if I said it will threaten the east coast. Again what's the big deal???????I'm sorry I forgot your perfect when it come to posting the direction of a tropical storm or hurricane. I bet your right everytime because your God...Lols...but anyway I guess when I go to church tommorow I ought to tell the lord he has competition.Lols.....

Anything is not always possible...a very bad premise to live your life on. The atmosphere just like many other things on this planet behave in certain ways and when you decide to accept that perhaps you can have a more rational view point. 100 miles or 200 miles at 72 hours...fine you can argue that, but 1000s of miles????

What's wrong with what you are telling us is that because you want to say it, it is okay...that is no different than telling school children that it is okay if you think 1+1=3.

Please give us examples of a storm moving 1000 miles in the opposite direction it was forecast to in the last 10 years in a 72 hour time frame. Then perhaps we can examine the "anything is possible" theory and give it some credence.

[abajan]

I was looking at the five day forecasted track and it seems that larry is moving away from mexico and looks to be headed towards some of the gulf states. But this is just my opinon. I believe florida will be threaten by larry by next week slowly moving up the east coast. As for kate nothings for sure as the northwest turn goes. The trough may not be strong enough to sweep kate away. She may continue on the west track. This means it needs to be monitored. I haven't heard meterologists saying no threat to land yet. So this raises questions! but anyway time will tell........

Time has told.

[AussieMark]

My dad when he was still alive he told me about a hurricane that meterologists claimed went out to sea that it was long gone, only within a few days this hurricane intensified and came back and pounded the eastcoast

It wasn't Hazel was it...Hazel pounded Haiti and looked to be going on a NE track...before Hazel swung around to a NW track which took her to South Carolina/North Carolina as a Category 3 Hurricane or maybe Category 4 intensity.

[ColdFront77]

Hurricane Hazel moved toward to the United States and made landfall along the South Carolina/North Carolina coast.

It doesn't appear to me that it was moving northeast away from the U.S. east coast.