I agree with you, Mike... the model guidance was suburb with Isabel.
There was still good reason to wait until the system really had no way of impacting Florida beyond high surf and rip currents along the eastern coast of the state. There were some indications of a Florida landfall before the definate turn to the NW and NNW took place.
As we know, tropical systems with their steering influences can be fickle.
Larry On "Larry"
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