2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

-NAO will dominate in the next few weeks so SST should warm a bit. We are still far from hurricane season and pattern can always change in the spring. I'd wait until April to comment on SSTs.

[rockice]

After looking everybody's comments and looking at the images on here I don't want to misquote anybody but it sure does look like it's going to be a very quiet 2026?

[Category5Kaiju]

After looking everybody's comments and looking at the images on here I don't want to misquote anybody but it sure does look like it's going to be a very quiet 2026?

It really boils down to how wet Africa will be, how warm the Atlantic will be, and how strong of a +ENSO event we get in the EPAC. We're getting mixed signals at this point, with some models looking like we should see below-average activity and some models favoring somewhat more activity.

And even then, given how recent seasons have behaved, I wouldn't be surprised if 2026 ends up as a below-average season but also features several storms that go on to become very strong systems, like Category 4+. Below-average activity tells us nothing about how strong certain storms will become and where they go.

[TomballEd]

Cliche but it only takes one. If it is a 1997-ish year, while numbers and storm strength will be down, there might be some early season non-tropical origin storms. I remember a very intense constant lightning disturbance passing over Lafayette. Rob Perillo, local Acadiana TV met, mentioned the possibility of TCG from what became Danny. Did a fair amount of damage and damaged/destroyed a lot of cars for the off shore hands whose companies didn't evacuate. I went offshore a couple of weeks after Danny. Met the crew on an ADTI rig. ADTI was a turnkey driller and notoriously cheap. 10 hour boat rides instead of 40 minute helicopter kind of cheap. That was a blown CSU forecast year, modelling was apparently slow in picking up the change of ENSO. I suppose almost 30 years later ENSO forecasts, while perhaps not perfect, are much better.

[chaser1]

My greatest fears regarding next hurricane season rank as follows:
1) Satellite failure as a result of solar (CME) impact, general disrepair or software problems, and exacerbated by further decrease in government funding.
2) Data and software corruption OR government funding issues that directly impact Global forecast models resulting in a degradation of accuracy.
3) Global Climate "Weirding" is confirmed as the first bonafide Cat 6 hurricane actually develops (whatever those SLP & wind peramters might need be LOL).

[Category5Kaiju]

A bit unrelated to 2026 indicators per se, but I can't be the only one who is in disbelief that we're already on to the 2026 season. For instance, I'm sure many of us have very vivid memories of the haywire 2017 season, especially with Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and to think that's literally almost 10 years ago....and the last time we used Greek letters was 6 years ago, and Ian 4 years ago....yeah, time flies.

[cycloneye]

Happy new year to all. The January run from CanSIPS has a more juicy ASO in terms of more humid than the december run and also for ASO, it has very warm sst' s especially in the subtropics.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Happy new year everyone! My early thought's for this year is that I could see a scenario where we end up getting a weak El nino/warm neutral kinda like 2018. I am skeptical of us getting a strong El nino this year, despite the fact that the models all have it right now, given that we just had a strong nino only 3 years ago, and normally we don't get back to back strong ninos, or in the very least, we don't get strong El ninos that are very close in time with each other. If this happens (warm neutral/weak nino), I honestly don't think the season will be inactive. It may very well be similar to last year at least, without the 3 C5s (probably).

[julius davis]

the CANSIPS has been showing the same run since 2024. It's mind boggles my mind how people treat this as if its something different every time.

[Category5Kaiju]

At least dating back to 1995 when the current active era began, it's important to note that only 9 years out of 31 years (1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2023) operationally met the definition of an El Nino. While El Ninos can grow more intense than La Ninas (historically, there has never been a recorded "very-strong" La Nina event while there have been multiple "very-strong" El Nino events) and have a very predictable return interval of, on-average, about 2-5 years, there's no denying that they are not as common as neutral or La Nina events.

Can't remember exactly who, but there was somebody else on Storm2k a while ago who laid this concept out fairly well; basically, it's much easier to get neutral or La Nina conditions than it is to get an El Nino, because more things have to fall in place and go "right" for the atmosphere and the ocean to achieve an El Nino than the other way around. This also is part of the main reason why El Ninos tend to last a year and then die off, while La Ninas oftentimes repeat in back-to-back years.

What my point here is, while early indications point toward some kind of El Nino this upcoming season and while I think a weak or moderate El Nino has a likely chance of occurring, I also wonder if there's a nonzero chance that a failmode happens (kind of like 2003, 2012, 2017, or 2019, where early signs pointed toward an El Nino, which ultimately failed to materialize). If we somehow don't get an El Nino, then that could have some major implications on this season's activity levels, and it could very well exceed some of the more bearish early-season outlooks.